In the lead-up to the total solar eclipse coming to Vermont on Monday, locals and out-of-state visitors have been waiting with bated breath to hear about one key factor: the weather.
A total solar eclipse, when the moon completely covers the sun, is an incredibly rare event in any particular location on Earth: The last one came to Vermont in 1932. On Monday, April 8, people on the path of totality will be able to see the entire sky darken, and might — if the weather is clear — be able to witness the sun become a halo of light around a black moon.
Historically speaking, the odds are against clear skies. Typical cloud cover for an April day is around 60% to 80%, according to the National Weather Service.
But in a unique turnaround, the weather service is actually forecasting a fairly sunny day in Vermont on Monday, according to weather service meteorologist Rebecca Duell. Meanwhile, clouds are looking likely in many of the typically sunny states in the path of totality.
In fact, if the forecast as of Wednesday holds up, the northern half of Vermont might be one of the best places to view the eclipse in the entire United States.
The current weather model from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a lower than 30% cloud cover for Monday around 2 p.m., shortly before the eclipse begins around 3:30 p.m. Duell said the weather service in Burlington was “cautiously optimistic” about the state’s chances of being able to see the moment of totality.
An atmospheric ridge, which would bring drier weather and possible sunny conditions, is expected on Monday, “which would be very good news for us,” Duell said.
The exact timing of that ridge is still up in the air, leading to some lingering uncertainty about whether it will affect the eclipse. There’s also a small air front coming from the north, but Duell said that’s unlikely to change the forecast at this point.
Scott Whittier, a meteorologist for the weather service, said cloud cover can also vary locally.
“It won’t be until that day that we’ll know for sure,” he wrote in an email.
Duell advised eclipse viewers to still be careful about navigating Vermont’s chilly, early spring weather. The weather service forecasts rain and snow showers over Friday night into Saturday.
The weather service also recommended people stay out of the water, which is “very, very cold right now,” she said. Falling into the water at those temperatures could be life-threatening.
Trails and roads could also be muddy, and higher elevations could still have snowpack from the storm expected on Thursday. Some towns have even closed roads headed toward Mount Mansfield and the Camel’s Hump to discourage hiking, Duell said.
The good news is that even if it’s a little cloudy, some of the effects of the eclipse could still be visible — like the darkening of the sky that occurs when the sun is completely covered. If there are a few high clouds on Monday, the sun could still be visible through them, Duell said.
“We’ll see,” Duell said. “Definitely check in (when we get) closer, but that’s a good outlook right now that we’re seeing the current forecast.”
