At face value, Vermont appears to be doing well with Covid-19.
The state Department of Health reported that Vermont had “low” Covid levels for the fourth straight week in a row, as the state emerges from a surge in cases driven by the BA.2 subvariant. The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also reported last Thursday that most Vermont counties had “low” Covid levels. Only two counties — Bennington and Rutland — were rated “medium.”
Vermont reported about 67 cases per day in the past week, and about 10 new hospital admissions for Covid per day, both a significant drop from a few months ago.
But that data comes with a caveat: The basis for Covid case data — PCR testing — is at its lowest point in a year, according to health department data. The state conducted about 1,110 tests per day in the past week, compared to 3,000 to 4,000 tests per day during the BA.2 surge.
PCR testing has declined for months due to two factors: the rise of at-home antigen testing, whose results are not typically reported to the health department, and the closure of state-run testing sites, which officially shuttered on June 25.
The latest week of data also included the July 4 holiday weekend, when testing numbers dipped far below 1,000 per day.
Vermont officials have emphasized for months that case counts are less reliable than hospital data or other indicators of severe disease, such as the rate of hospital patients showing certain symptoms. At the same time, the CDC and state health department still rely on Covid case counts, in addition to hospitalizations, to determine the state’s Covid levels.
Experts have said that the main benefit of case data is its ability to show surges early on, allowing state officials, health care workers and everyday individuals to take action. In comparison, hospitalization and death data can lag weeks behind.
The good news is that the early indicators included in the state’s weekly report don’t show any signs of an increase. The number of people visiting emergency rooms with Covid symptoms remains low, and the only city that reported wastewater testing results, Burlington, reported low viral levels in its samples.
Vermont also compares well to the rest of the nation, according to New York Times data. While Vermont and the rest of New England reported low and declining Covid rates, Western and Southern states have reported an increase.
The number of Covid cases nationwide remains flat, The Times reports, but there’s a caveat to that data, too: Many other states have followed Vermont’s trend of conducting fewer PCR tests, making it hard to say how accurately national case data reflects the reality of Covid on the ground. Hospitalizations are rising, but they remain far lower than their peak during Omicron in the winter.
The CDC also reported that a new subvariant, BA.5, made up the majority of case samples nationwide in the past week, edging out BA.2 and its relatives. In New England, BA.5 made up about 42% of new cases.
Hospitalizations in Vermont remain mostly flat. As of Wednesday, there were 30 patients in Vermont hospitals with Covid, including two in intensive care, according to the health department.
The department reported four additional Covid deaths, including three so far in July. June had 12 deaths in total. There have been 687 Covid deaths in Vermont since the beginning of the pandemic in March 2020.
The death toll is based on death certificates that list Covid as a cause or probable cause of death, according to the health department. Because of the time it takes to investigate deaths and prepare death certificates, deaths can sometimes be added retroactively, raising the total for previous weeks and months.
