On June 14, 2021, Gov. Phil Scott announced the end of Covid-19 restrictions that had protected Vermonters from transmission of the virus but which also closed businesses, limited social gatherings, and changed the nature of school and work for over a year.
What’s happened in the year since?
Scott had set his goal a few weeks earlier to reopen the state when 80% of eligible Vermonters had begun the Covid vaccination process. Although experts questioned the exact level needed to genuinely reach “herd immunity,” in which virus spread would be sharply curtailed, it was widely agreed that vaccines would prevent cases and deaths.
At the time, Health Commissioner Mark Levine said “we can do better” than to solely vaccinate older and high-risk Vermonters, and set a goal of limiting community transmission among all Vermonters. He criticized other regions where vaccination campaigns were less robust.
“They say, ‘We’ve already taken care of those who are most vulnerable, especially to severe illness, and there will be less hospitalizations and deaths. Covid will just become a disease that younger and healthier people get. And maybe that’s OK,’” Levine said in May 2021. “But that’s not where I stand.”
When the state hit its 80% vaccination goal in June 2021, Vermont was also coming out of a relative case surge that occurred that spring. The state reported only eight cases and two people in the hospital with Covid on the day that the governor dropped all restrictions.
That lull in the pandemic lasted about two months. In late July, Vermont reported the arrival of the Delta variant of the Covid virus, and cases began creeping up. In mid-December, the Omicron variant caused cases to skyrocket.
Both variants were more contagious than the original strain of the virus and better able to evade Covid vaccines’ ability to prevent transmission. While Omicron was less likely to cause severe illness, its heavy caseload nevertheless caused a 14-day streak where more than 100 people were hospitalized with Covid across the state.
Subsequent vaccine campaigns over the fall and winter were also less successful than the initial call leading up to an 80% vaccination rate. Less than two-thirds of Vermonters are up-to-date on all recommended doses of the vaccine, according to the health department.
Just as the state dropped mask recommendations in February and March, yet another variant began circulating: BA.2, another more infectious strain of Covid.
This week, the health department released weekly data showing that Vermont is reporting about 105 cases per day — suggesting that the state has pulled out of the BA.2 surge, which peaked at over 300 reported cases per day. The health department said Wednesday that it rates Vermont as having “low” Covid levels.
Experts agree that BA.2 appears to be on the decline in Vermont, but expressed uncertainty about what that means for high-risk Vermonters or the future of the pandemic in the coming months.
Asked at a press conference Tuesday to reflect on the one-year anniversary of his reopening decision, Scott hearkened back even further to the early days of the pandemic in 2020.
“So much has changed right from the very, very beginning. We had no playbook; we didn't know what we were getting into,” he said.
“From a historical standpoint, we've made great strides, from vaccines being the most significant to begin with, and then all the treatment that we have available,” he said, contrasting that with a time when “we thought (there) was surface transmission of the virus, so we were cleaning everything in the beginning.”
Levine said he thinks of the pandemic as five different pandemics: the beginning phase with the initial strain, followed by four phases of different variants dominating the state. “Every time one of these new variants occurred, it was a completely different strategy and management plan,” Levine said.
Advances in people’s understanding of the science “also creates transitions, and transition times are the most uncomfortable for people and make them the most anxious,” Levine said. “They remember what they just did before and, why are they doing it again? And it really creates the need for abundant messaging and communication and being very transparent.”
At the press conference, Scott emphasized the need for Vermont to address the way Covid restrictions cause harm for mental health and emotional well-being, particularly for children.
“While Covid isn't going away, we have so many more tools and more experience to manage it,” he said. “So as the solution for the situation continues to improve, it's important we continue to work to reverse the harms resulting from some of the mitigation measures we put in place before we have all these tools.”
But he said that, while officials weren’t concerned about a Covid spike this summer, the fall could bring another variant and yet another increase in cases. “I don't want to give you the impression that we think this is over,” Scott said.
Here’s what the data shows, based on the health department’s surveillance report, the underlying data from the department and federal sources of Covid data.
Low Covid levels
The Vermont health department rated Vermont as having “low” Covid levels, based on its recent case rate, its hospital admissions for Covid, and the percentage of hospital beds taken up by Covid patients, according to its weekly report.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention also rated most of the state as “low,” with only one county, Bennington, having “high” levels. Orleans and Rutland counties had “medium” levels.
The health department reported Covid cases and hospitalizations both declined. On Wednesday, 28 people were hospitalized with the virus, including three in intensive care, the lowest number of hospitalizations since April 11.
The department also reported a declining number of people entering hospitals with Covid-like symptoms.
Six additional Covid deaths were reported by the department in the past week, for a total of seven in June. According to the department, 679 people have died of Covid in Vermont since the beginning of the pandemic.
The number of Covid deaths is based on death certificates that list Covid as a cause or probable cause of death, according to the health department. Because of the time it takes to investigate deaths and prepare death certificates, deaths can sometimes be added retroactively, which raises the total for previous weeks and months.
The department did not report Covid levels at most wastewater facilities this week, citing a technical issue. The one city that reported wastewater data, Burlington, showed mostly the same low viral levels as the previous week.
Data on cases by age groups suggests that Covid declined across almost all ages in the past week. However, the state does not provide similar data for hospitalizations.
Data from the health department on cases and hospitalizations by vaccination status shows that both factors declined for unvaccinated and vaccinated Vermonters.
However, the health department does not track whether fully vaccinated people are up-to-date on their vaccines, including any recommended booster doses.
