This commentary is by Bob McKearin, a resident of Burlington.
What are we doing about transportation, at nearly 40% the largest source of CO2 emissions in Vermont? There is some good news:
1) As described in Vermont’s Climate Action Plan, our state will:
- Shift away from fossil fuels and fossil fuel-dependent equipment.
- Build more charging stations for electric vehicles.
- Provide incentives to help Vermonters purchase electric vehicles.
- Create infrastructure that supports more walking, biking, public transit options and electric vehicle use in Vermont communities.
2) Similarly, the state’s January 2022 Comprehensive Energy Plan for transportation calls for replacing fossil fuel-powered motor vehicles with electric vehicles:
- “Strategies for reducing transportation sector (greenhouse gas) emissions revolve around replacing all classes of internal combustion engine vehicles with EVs and reducing overall (vehicle miles traveled).”
So far so good. It is essential that we electrify motorized transportation. But, if that’s all we do, it’s not nearly enough. Electrification cannot be our only priority.
Why? Because it is going to take a decade, likely more, to move to mostly electric vehicles. The internal combustion engine is going to be the dominant method of propulsion for years to come, continuing to spew CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions.
The plans developed by legislative and environmental groups, which are limited to electrification, don’t take into account the fact that the transportation sector is 99% fossil fuels-based (Vermont Transportation Energy Profile 2021). We’re like the rest of the U.S., which has 280 million light-duty vehicles, 99% of which run on either gasoline or diesel.
That will change as electric vehicle sales increase and will grow faster as availability and infrastructure improve. But the inconvenient reality is that the current rate of increase of EV registrations will get us to 1.28% of the fleet by 2025, reducing the fossil fuel fleet by a paltry 0.28% from where it is now. That’s way short of Vermont’s 10% targeted goal for 2025. Even a fleet that is half electric is a long way off.
Vermont’s Transportation and Climate Initiative, released on Dec. 1, 2021, calls for 100% of new vehicle sales to be electric-powered by 2035. If that goal is reached, most of the internal combustion engines registered in 2035 will continue to operate, and continue to emit CO2.
The impact of fossil fuels in transportation is enormous.
Each gallon of gas burned creates 19.5 pounds of CO2; each gallon of diesel creates 22.3 pounds. (One molecule of carbon emitted from the tailpipe joins two molecules of oxygen already in the atmosphere, creating CO2.)
In 2020, 262 million gallons of gasoline and 61.7 million gallons of diesel were sold in Vermont (a down year for sales due to Covid). When burned, the combined fuels created nearly 6.5 billion pounds of CO2 from cars and trucks.
We must curb those emissions. The simplest, least expensive way to do that is to slow down. It costs nothing and is immediately effective.
How does slowing down help?
- The engine efficiency of cars and trucks declines rapidly over 55 mph.
- Compared with 65 mph, whatever you drive, driving at 70 mph consumes 9% more gas or diesel; at 75, 15% more; and at 80, 20% more.
- 70-75 mph and is the norm on the interstate, and 80 mph is hardly rare.
- Slowing down, even to the current limit of 65 rather than going 70 to 80, would prevent the creation of hundreds of millions of pounds of CO2.
- The direct result of slowing down will be the reduction of CO2 by 10% to 15% or more, keeping hundreds of millions of pounds of CO2 out of the atmosphere.
- Even better, cruise at 55 mph; 8% more fuel is consumed at 65, 17% more at 70, 23% more at 75 and 28% more at 80.
- Stick to the 50 mph limit on state highways to reduce emissions even more.
The bottom line: Electrification alone will not get the CO2 reductions we need as quickly as we need them. Curb your driving enthusiasm by slowing down.
If we are serious about doing everything reasonably possible to reduce CO2 emissions from motor vehicles, we need to do more than wait for the day when all vehicles are electric.
If you care about preserving as much of Vermont’s climate as possible for your children and grandchildren, and if you like skiing, pond hockey, ice fishing and sledding, cleaner lakes and rivers, then drive slower. Continued speeding will accelerate the rate of climate change, ensuring more deer ticks, algae blooms and shorter ski seasons. And those are just the tips of the melting icebergs.
