Every metric in the latest Vermont Covid-19 modeling report points to a better outlook for the state.
The seven-day Covid case average has tanked 91% since the peak of the Omicron variant wave. With about 163 new infections per day, Vermont is reporting about the same case counts it did in mid-September, according to the Department of Financial Regulation.
Covid testing has changed significantly in the past few months, leading officials to warn that fewer cases than ever are represented in official case data. But other metrics are trending downward, too.
New hospital admissions for the virus are at their lowest point since October, the department reported. Only 30 people were in Vermont hospitals for Covid as of Tuesday, with two in intensive care — compared with more than 100 patients and 20 ICU patients in January.
Deaths remain elevated by comparison, with February reporting 57 Covid fatalities. But the number of deaths each week has declined in recent days, and the department forecasts that it will continue to trend downward. In total, 602 people have died of Covid since the beginning of the pandemic.
Yet as the outlook for Covid has improved, hospitals continue to report strained capacity. The department reported that 74 hospital beds were available statewide as of Wednesday, with 18 intensive care beds available.
[Looking for data on breakthrough cases? See our reporting on the latest available statistics.]
That’s better than a low of about 40 hospital beds and less than 10 ICU beds in the worst days of the Omicron surge, but it’s far lower than July when nearly 180 hospital beds and more than 30 ICU beds were open at any one time.
At the same time, the percent of ICU beds taken by non-Covid patients is increasing, the department reported.
Hospitals were forced to delay surgeries during the Delta and Omicron waves in order to make room for Covid patients. Health issues such as mental health conditions and delayed care led to a rise in deaths in the latter half of 2021.
Vermont hospitals also continued to report critical staffing shortages into mid-February as a rise in demand coincided with fewer nurses and health care workers available to cover patients.
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