This commentary is by John McCormick, director of the Louise Diamond Committee to Protect Next Generations based in Bristol, a project of the Arlington, Virginia-based Institute for Multi-Track Diplomacy.
Thinking decarbonization? Call Maine.
Vermont has launched an aggressive global warming mitigation plan. It will need more electric power to achieve the goal.
The Gulf of Maine has some of the strongest winds on the globe. Maine has an ongoing program to access that wind to generate electricity from wind towers on floating platforms by 2024.
The U.S. has 42 megawatts of offshore wind capacity but +35,000 MW are projected.
Over the past eight years, maturing technology, rapidly evolving supply chains, increased competition and experience from global utility-scale installations have driven costs down and broadened the deployment of offshore wind energy. Two hundred global offshore wind energy projects are operating or in various stages of development.
The Department of Interior’s Bureau of Ocean Energy Management regulates energy development in federal waters and leases wind energy areas to offshore developers. Vermont can access Maine’s Gulf or New Hampshire’s offshore federal water but must submit a lease application to Bureau of Ocean Energy Management for a wind energy area.
Maine, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York and New Jersey are investing many billions to construct wind towers off their coasts. The New England offshore potential appears up and ready. It’s entirely new capacity. Not a replacement for anything. I envision eight floating towers with 12-14 MW capacity anchored 20 miles off the Maine coast generating at 45% capacity and owned by Vermont interests.
The Vermont Public Utility Commission could open a workshop titled: How can Vermont benefit from offshore wind? Based on that hearing record, the Public Utility Commission and Department of Public Service could collaborate on economic and technical feasibility studies to inform Vermont’s government of options and guide it through the decision-making process. Requests for proposals could be issued in short time, and there are many qualified companies, technicians and financial interests heavily involved in this evolving $100 billion industry. Waiting until the time is right can close that option to acquire rights to federal waters on the coast. The Department of Interior would have to suspend leasing if the grid could not transmit more energy.
Vermont should not stand on the sidelines. Power purchase agreements will become bidding wars larger states will win.
Offshore wind energy is not R&D. Many millions of dollars are being invested today.
In 2020, U.S. offshore wind energy projects, in the pipeline or operating, grew to a potential generating capacity of 35,324 MW. It includes two operating projects: the Block Island Wind Farm (30 MW) and the Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind pilot project (12 MW). Beyond this, Vineyard Wind (800 MW) is fully approved, received all permits, an off take contract to sell the power and an interconnection agreement to deliver it to the grid. It has plans to fully connect to the grid by 2024.
In addition, there are 15 projects in the pipeline that have reached the permitting phase, with either a Construction and Operations Plan or a power purchase agreement mechanism for the sale of electricity, commercial leases in federal waters that have gained exclusive site control. Seven wind energy areas can be leased at the discretion of the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management in the future.
Further, the Biden Administration announced a 30 gigawatt-by-2030 national offshore wind energy goal, and states continue to adopt their own offshore wind procurement mandates.
Beyond the national goal, states are aiming to procure at least 39,298 MW of offshore wind capacity by 2040.
Globally, the average levelized cost of energy of fixed-bottom offshore wind energy installations is now below $.095/kilowatt-hour. The levelized cost of energy for wind projects that have a commercial operations date.
Offshore wind levelized cost of energy declined by 28%-51% between 2014 and 2020. By 2030, experts predict offshore levelized cost of energy levels of approximately $.056 per kilowatt hour, declining further to a range of $.044/kWh to $.072/kWh by 2050.
The levelized procurement price of U.S. offshore wind energy projects ranges between $.096/kWh (Vineyard Wind) and $.071/kWh Mayflower Wind for projects commencing commercial operations between 2022 and 2025. These prices, from PPAs and offshore renewable energy certificates, are based on a total of 5.5 GW of signed agreements. Mayflower Wind’s procurement price is among the lowest-priced offshore wind energy projects announced globally.
Floating offshore wind levelized cost of energy is predicted to decline from approximately $.160/kWh in 2020 to $.060-$.105/kWh in 2030. These estimated cost reductions are related to an expected floating deployment trajectory that spans from multiple wind turbine demonstration projects expected to come online through 2023 to medium- to full-scale commercial projects announced for commercial operation after 2023.
The Global Warming Solutions Act report was delivered to the governor and legislators. The bulk of its carbon dioxide reduction recommendations include electric vehicles and heat pumps. If the council’s modeled plan is fully implemented by 2035, about 100 MW of new electricity demand will be delivered by Vermont’s utilities.
Importing the increased demand from the New England Independent System Operator or Hydro Quebec should not be the default choice. Eight floating towers would provide 100 MW of absolutely carbon-free power.
