Vermont’s seven-day Covid-19 average has hit its lowest point since Nov. 2, one of several indicators that the Omicron variant surge is trending down, officials said at a press conference Tuesday.
The state Department of Health reported an average of 220 cases per day, including 68 on Tuesday, the first time the state has reported fewer than 100 new infections since October.
Health department Commissioner Mark Levine said during the model presentation that the numbers “continue to reinforce the improving picture of Covid-19 here in Vermont.”
Officials have cautioned that cases could be an unreliable indicator as at-home antigen tests become more widespread in Vermont. But Levine said other data is trending downward, too.
The department reported 44 people were hospitalized for Covid as of Tuesday, and average Covid patients have fallen 20% in the past week, he said. Only eight patients were in intensive care with the virus, the lowest number since early November. New hospital admissions for Covid have “stabilized,” Levine said, and are lower than they were at the peak of Omicron.
Hospitals are still crowded. About 58 hospital beds and 21 intensive care beds were open statewide as of Tuesday, compared with an average of 180 and 30, respectively, in July. Non-Covid patients make up about 75% of intensive care usage, according to the model presentation.
Another four Covid deaths were reported over the four-day weekend, bringing February’s total to 42, Levine said. Fatalities have started to trend down, but he said, “we’re not sure yet where that number will end up, as this metric takes the longest to reflect the impact of improving (cases).”
In total, 587 people have died of Covid in Vermont since the beginning of the pandemic, according to the department.
An endemic phase
Levine said the lowering numbers are part of the department’s plan to transition its treatment of Covid to look more like how they treat other respiratory viruses, as an “endemic” disease.
“As we continue to watch these downward trajectories, we can see where we are headed, which is a time of less transmission and disease in our state,” he said.
Nothing is happening immediately. Like the governor’s recent recommendation to end school masking, which was announced two weeks ahead, Levine said the state would continue to plan out future mitigation measures.
Several other states are looking at moving beyond the pandemic into an endemic stage. California was the first to announce its strategy last week, which includes mass testing, stockpiling masks, ventilators, over-the-counter tests and other resources necessary to respond to outbreaks, NBC reported.
Levine said the department is using major metrics beyond Covid case counts such as hospital usage and capacity, wastewater monitoring, projections, and the state’s vaccination rate to make decisions about the future.
[Looking for data on breakthrough cases? See our reporting on the latest available statistics.]
Looking at the “Herculean” effort to provide PCR testing to all Vermonters in the thousands each day, he said the state is considering how to use at-home antigen tests as an alternative, which are “more convenient” and provide “quicker results.”
And as Covid transmission drops, Vermonters won’t need to get tested as often, such as before and after large gatherings, Levine said.
Health department recommendations may shift from a “public health” mentality to a more “individualized” approach. Levine said that means Vermonters may need to be considerate to those at higher risk who may need to take extra precautions.
“The person who wears a mask has their own good reasons to do so, and we need to respect their reasoning and be understanding,” he said.
The department is still monitoring emerging variants of the virus, such as the BA.2 subvariant, which has been detected in a handful of people in Vermont. Levine said the department awaits more data on the behavior of that particular variant.
He added some advice from the mental health safety officer at the health department about how to adjust to your own new mental framework around the disease.
“Be aware of how the pandemic has impacted you and consider these effects as you think about your future plans,” he said. “Each of us will transition back to normal routines at a different pace. Try not to take on too much, too fast. Be open and flexible to the changes ahead as we look to the future with hope.”
Get the latest statistics and live updates on our coronavirus page.
Sign up for our coronavirus email list.
Tell us your story or give feedback at coronavirus@vtdigger.org.
Support our nonprofit journalism with a donation.
