State lawmakers in relevant committees have spent the first month of the legislative session focused on creating policies that would lower greenhouse gas emissions and strengthen Vermont’s climate resilience.
Meanwhile, state officials are taking stock of the progress and deciding whether they’ll need to take action to help the state meet its emission reduction requirements before the first deadline in 2025.
The Global Warming Solutions Act of 2020 requires that Vermont reduces emissions by 26% below 2005 levels by 2025 or faces potential legal action. That’s around 1.3 million metric tons less, annually, than Vermont emitted in 2018, according to the latest available emissions data.
In December, Vermont passed its first Climate Action Plan, which serves as a guide for the state to achieve those requirements. Most of the plan’s recommendations require action from the Legislature to move forward.
If Vermont does not achieve the required reductions by other means, much of the work and accountability falls to the Agency of Natural Resources. Agency Secretary Julie Moore told VTDigger she has her eye on a particular section of the act, which requires her to ensure that policies established in 2022 will meet the upcoming 2025 deadline.
“Ultimately, if we fail to achieve those 2025 emissions reduction targets, there is a legal cause of action provided for in the act, which can then have the court tell the agency much more broadly to adopt or update rules,” Moore said.
While the Climate Action Plan is largely built around providing Vermonters with incentives and technical assistance to transition to a lower-carbon lifestyle, “the agency’s tools are regulatory in nature,” Moore said.
The agency “would need to proceed, regardless of whether there’s an opportunity to provide incentives,” she said.
So, is Vermont on track to meet its 2025 goals?
Moore said she’s heartened by the speed with which the Legislature is considering climate policy this session. Several committees have taken testimony on a proposed clean heat standard, which has been widely credited as the most influential policy to be proposed in the Climate Action Plan.
Similar to Vermont’s renewable energy standard, the clean heat standard would require and incentivize heat wholesalers and distributors to switch their supplies to heat sources that produce fewer carbon emissions than traditional sources.
Heat from fossil fuels accounts for around 34% of Vermont’s climate pollution, according to the Energy Action Network.
Another policy that would have topped the list in terms of impact, called the Transportation Climate Initiative Program, recently fell apart when other states announced they would not participate. The program would have set a limit for tailpipe emissions, and fossil fuel suppliers would purchase emissions allowances at auction. The funds would have gone toward green transportation projects.
In their exit, governors of Connecticut and Massachusetts cited high gas prices, an influx of federal funding and a lack of commitment from other states. Vermont was on track to commit to the program but hadn’t yet.
Without the program, the state is not on track to meet its requirements.
Members of Vermont’s Climate Council are working to pose another recommendation for the transportation sector, which accounts for the largest percentage of Vermont’s carbon emissions at 40%.
Moore said she also was concerned that the Budget Adjustment Act, which passed out of the House earlier this month, appropriated American Rescue Plan Act funds in a way that could take around 20% away from Gov. Phil Scott’s proposed $160 million for climate action.
“To my mind, the action plan advocates or promotes the use of incentives and technical assistance, and so making sure the resources are there to support those pieces broadly is critical to the timely implementation of the Climate Action Plan,” Moore said.
Jared Duval, a climate council member and executive director of the Energy Action Network, an organization that tracks and reports on Vermont’s emissions reductions progress, said Vermont’s ability to reach its 2025 requirement may indicate whether the state can reach its target in 2030.
2030 poses a larger challenge — Vermont will need to cut its emissions by around half.
“It’s very difficult to put together a model that results in achieving the 2030 emissions reduction requirements without actually surpassing the 2025 requirements,” Duval said.
Speaking in his role as a climate councilor — the Energy Action Network does not advocate for policies — Duval said it won’t be enough for legislators to pass laws.
“These headline policy names — it’s not just, ‘does a policy get passed,’” he said. “The details within that policy really matter. So it’s important that they get passed as recommended and implemented in an effective way.”
