Vermont reported its greatest number of Covid-related hospitalizations since the start of the pandemic on Tuesday, as well as a new boom in cases at long-term care facilities in the state.
Over the past week, according to new data from the Department of Health, the number of active outbreaks in such facilities has jumped from 10 to 15. The number of cases associated with long-term care facility outbreaks exploded in that time — from 58 a week ago to 268, according to a report from the Department of Financial Regulation.
Even those figures likely underestimate the magnitude of the situation, because two facilities with outbreaks — Birchwood Terrace in Burlington and Valley Terrace in White River Junction — recorded fewer than six cases apiece and were not required to publicly report exact case counts.
The state does not currently report the number of hospitalizations and deaths occurring at long-term care facilities.
High hospitalizations
One hundred and sixteen patients were hospitalized in Vermont as of Tuesday, breaking the record of 115 patients set on Sunday. Tuesday’s count also included 26 patients in intensive care units, roughly in line with previous days.
The Department of Health reported 715 cases statewide on Tuesday and updated its dashboard with Monday’s total of 806 cases. The seven-day average has dropped to 1,535 cases per day, down from a record average of 1,876 cases on Jan. 9 — marking a roughly 22% decline.
Several nearby states that have been hit especially hard by Covid — New York and New Jersey — are also reporting a drop in their case average compared to two weeks ago, according to The New York Times.
However, there are several reasons to avoid drawing too many conclusions about the trajectory of the virus in Vermont. The average has been declining for only the past eight days, meaning that the number of active cases is still quite high. With that many infectious people in the state, there’s always the potential for cases to spread and rise again.
There are uncertainties in the data itself, as well. State officials have cautioned that Covid case data may become less reliable due to a rise of antigen at-home testing, which relies on self-reporting to the Department of Health.
About 6% of cases in the department’s data in the past week are based on “probable” cases, meaning that people tested positive on an antigen test and had either symptoms or exposure to a person with Covid.
The state also reported two additional deaths attributed to Covid. In total, 19 people with the virus have died in Vermont so far in January and 499 have since the start of the pandemic.
Latest breakthrough data
The case rate has skyrocketed this month among both vaccinated and unvaccinated Vermonters — but unvaccinated Vermonters remain at far greater risk of getting Covid, being hospitalized or dying, according to Department of Health data.
Vermont recorded 9,147 cases among unvaccinated Vermonters from Jan. 2 to Jan. 15, compared to 13,070 cases among the considerably larger population of fully vaccinated Vermonters, according to department data.
That means 58% of cases were among fully vaccinated Vermonters. Data from the department that shows 79% of Vermonters 5 and older are fully vaccinated.
During that same period, Jan. 2 to 15, there were 30 hospitalizations among unvaccinated patients and 27 among vaccinated patients. Again, when population size is taken into account, unvaccinated Vermonters had a higher hospitalization rate.
The state reports more limited data on breakthrough deaths, which tend to have a smaller sample size. So far in January, the monthly death rate has been 7 per 100,000 unvaccinated people or 1.5 per 100,000 fully vaccinated people, but that’s based on fewer than 20 deaths.
In December, with more than 60 deaths, the death rates were 18.7 per 100,000 unvaccinated people and 5.5 per 100,000 vaccinated people.
The state doesn’t report weekly data on cases among people who have received a booster dose of the vaccine. However, the Department of Financial Regulation has presented an analysis of the risk to different vaccination groups over a six-week period at the weekly Covid press conference.
[Looking for data on breakthrough cases? See our reporting on the latest available statistics.]
According to the department, during the six weeks leading up to Jan. 11, the death rates were 2 per 100,000 fully vaccinated and boosted Vermonters, 11 per 100,000 fully vaccinated Vermonters without a booster, and 45.5 per 100,000 unvaccinated or partially vaccinated Vermonters.
About 52% of fully vaccinated Vermonters also have a booster dose, according to state figures.
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