Vermont reported 164 new Covid-19 cases and two new deaths Wednesday, according to data from the state Department of Health.
Those deaths represent a grim statistical milestone: 100 Vermonters have now died since July, when the more contagious Delta variant became dominant in the Northeast.
Last year, it took nine months — including a summer of sustained low infection rates — for Vermont to reach the first 100 deaths of the pandemic. This year, the Delta variant has driven the same death toll in less than four months.
In total, 358 Vermonters have died from Covid during the pandemic.
The seven-day average daily case count is 209. While that represents a sustained surge — the daily average has now remained above 200 cases for 18 consecutive days — case counts are currently in decline.
Cases in Vermont have dropped 7% over the past two weeks, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention analyzed by the New York Times. That’s compared to a 23% decline nationwide. Vermont ranks as the 11th-highest state in the U.S. for its rate of case growth and 16th for its per capita infection rate.
[Looking for data on breakthrough cases? See our reporting on the latest available statistics.]
The decline in cases is a hopeful sign, officials said at Gov. Phil Scott’s weekly press conference on Tuesday, but the numbers still warrant caution. Case counts over the past two months have previously dipped only to rebound to even higher levels, said Financial Regulation Commissioner Mike Pieciak, who leads the state’s Covid modeling efforts.
Vermont’s high rate of testing also plays a role, Pieciak said. As of Tuesday, Vermont had the second-highest rate of Covid testing in the U.S. The average test positivity rate has been declining alongside the daily case average. As of Wednesday, the seven-day average positivity rate was 2.6%.
Hospitalizations have remained elevated. The state reported Wednesday that 54 people were hospitalized with Covid, with 13 in intensive care. One more person was hospitalized with a suspected case.
Throughout the pandemic, hospitalizations and deaths have been seen as lagging indicators because severe Covid cases can take several weeks to run their course. That means those numbers tend to remain high for weeks after cases decline.
Forecasts compiled by the CDC show cases, hospitalizations and deaths are likely to decline in the coming weeks, Pieciak said Tuesday, but those models still include “a great degree of uncertainty.”
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