This column is by Haviland Smith, a long-retired CIA operations officer who spent his career working on the Soviet target, and now lives in Vermont.
What does the world’s drift toward authoritarianism tell us about the nature of humankind? It gives us an indication that mankind is more comfortable when told what to do than when making its own decisions.
A 2018 study on authoritarianism by the Economist’s intelligence unit (reported by Insider — formerly Business Insider) gave countries a numerical score up to 10. Above eight is a “full democracy,” while below four is an “authoritarian regime.”
The study had five criteria: Whether elections are free and fair, whether governments have checks and balances, whether citizens are included in politics, the level of support for the government, and whether people have freedom of expression.
The study classified the 30 worst authoritarian regimes. One-third of those were developing countries in Africa. None were European. The rest were spread around the world. The United States was listed as a “flawed democracy.”
It would seem logical to conclude that underdeveloped countries (over two-thirds of the total listed in the top 30) are there largely because they have never known any other form of government. Such countries do not have sufficient, familiar, nonauthoritarian forms of government to hold up as goals for their people. As a result, there is often no cohesive, motivated opposition to the authoritarian regime in power.
What is infinitely more difficult to understand is the ongoing phenomenon of a largely nonauthoritarian country moving toward or into an authoritarian status. Take Hungary, Brazil, Turkey. India, Belarus, Ethiopia, Algeria and Venezuela. All of those countries, and many more, have had fairly extensive experience with nonauthoritarian, more democratic forms of government. Yet, they have somehow moved in a new undemocratic direction.
The big question here is: Why?
The reasons are broad and varied. In many such countries, the citizenry simply is disinterested because of their preoccupation with self-preservation, or they have somehow not been involved in whatever benefits relative freedom has afforded. It is equally possible that the new authoritarian leaders have been sufficiently clever in their moves that the people never figured out in time what was happening. And then, some are probably materially better off under the new regimes.
Finally, there has been a dwindling in the existence of countries that could be role models for others seeking more democratic forms. First and foremost in this regard has been the United States, which, under Trump, showed no interest in promoting democracy abroad. During the Trump administration, the United States suffered increasingly bad press and a loss of prestige abroad. Non-Americans have come to no longer like, but rather to disparage us — hardly a desirable situation for any country that might be a role model.
This suggests we might well look at ourselves and where we are heading in the aftermath of a Trump presidency, where his Republican Party has bought totally into Trumpism.
If you were a secret authoritarian who wished to take power, you could hardly look for a more vulnerable country than the United States. We are in a political shambles, unable to find any kind of national cohesiveness. We are horribly racist, with white supremacist groups springing up all over the country.
Anyone wishing to replace a democracy with a more authoritarian form of government will try to find or create a chaotic environment in the target country. How does the U.S. fit into that picture? Consider the ongoing Trumpist/GOP attack on the press and fixation on “fake news.” Add to that the constant stream of conspiracy theories on every subject from government to Covid-19. Polish it off with an endless Trumpist/GOP attack on voting rights and the ongoing reviews and challenges to the 2020 election results and you have a pretty good start on chaos. Then you have a totally divided Congress and, if Republicans manage to kill the debt limit rise, chaos will truly reign.
What do you then need to exploit this chaos? Start with the politically motivated appointment of judges to the federal bench, most emphatically including the Supreme Court. Add a reduction in federal monitoring of corporate behavior, continuing indiscriminate support for the Second Amendment and gun ownership, and the growth of extremist groups, which is up over 30% in the past few years.
Is this all because Americans have stopped thinking and find it easier to join up with any one of dozens of available dissident groups who are eager to tell them what to do?
Whatever it is, there is a very good chance our “flawed democracy” is headed for an authoritarian revolt.
