New data from the Vermont Department of Health shows the Delta variant of Covid-19 continues to drive concerning trends despite the state’s sterling vaccination rate.
The state reported 238 new Covid cases Friday, down from Thursday’s 274 cases but far higher than the seven-day average of 206.
Thursday’s total was increased from the initial report of 268. Omitting a record-high count last week that officials attributed in part to a data glitch, the 274 cases reported Thursday represent the highest confirmed one-day total since the start of the pandemic.
Severe complications of the disease are hitting hard, too. Forty-two Vermonters are in the hospital with the virus, including 15 people in intensive care units. The state added three new deaths to its data, meaning that 24 people have died so far in September.
The latest numbers also reveal how the Delta-fueled wave is affecting vaccinated Vermonters.
Every two weeks, the health department publishes a data summary with information on case demographics, clinical outcomes and outbreaks. The report is also the only regular release of data on the vaccination status of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
The latest summary includes cases recorded through Wednesday, Sept. 22.
The rate of breakthrough infections — that is, cases among fully vaccinated Vermonters — has remained mostly level as compared to the rate in unvaccinated people. Unvaccinated Vermonters were roughly 4.4 times more likely than their vaccinated peers to get Covid over the two-week reporting period, compared to the ratio of roughly 3.5 reported throughout the month of August.
Health officials have emphasized that breakthrough cases are to be expected. Vermont’s vaccinated population is now more than double the size of its unvaccinated population, and the vaccines aim to prevent severe illness and death more so than infection.
However, the spike in deaths related to the Delta variant has affected vaccinated and unvaccinated Vermonters nearly alike.
Vaccinated Vermonters have accounted for roughly 64% of the 42 deaths reported since July 29. That’s the most recent date for which comprehensive data is available, and roughly tracks with estimates by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of when the Delta variant became dominant in the Northeast.
Adjusting for the state’s large fully vaccinated population, unvaccinated Vermonters are still dying from Covid at a slightly higher rate than vaccinated Vermonters, by a factor of about 1.2.
Deaths reported during the Delta wave have skewed toward older age groups. People 60 or older account for roughly 79% of the 42 deaths reported since late July.
Several factors may contribute to the trend. Older Vermonters are statistically more likely to be vaccinated: State data shows that more than 96% of people 60 or older have completed vaccination. They are more likely to have been vaccinated earlier than younger people due to the state’s age-based vaccine rollout. And they are more likely to have other health conditions that could lead to complications from Covid-19.
People 65 or older are now the first to become eligible for booster shots if they initially received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Appointments open gradually, in five-year age bands, over the next week. Those 80 and older are eligible to sign up now.
Hospitalizations among vaccinated and unvaccinated Vermonters track more closely to infection rates. Unvaccinated Vermonters were about six times more likely to be hospitalized than vaccinated Vermonters from July 29 through Sept. 22. Unvaccinated Vermonters accounted for roughly 72% of the 218 total hospitalizations during that time period.
The health department data summary also provides a glimpse at the rising number of outbreaks in Vermont, defined as three or more cases from a single setting. There were 70 active outbreaks as of Sept. 22, up from 47 in the reporting period ending Sept. 8.
New cases associated with outbreaks were reported in four types of settings:
- Congregate care: 76 new cases among residents, 24 new cases among staff.
- Schools and child care: 63 new among children and staff.
- Workplaces or businesses: 85 new.
- Community, referring to social gatherings or events: 52 new.
The health department reports separately on cases in long-term care facilities and schools every Tuesday.
Black Vermonters continue to have highest Covid rates
Even as the Delta surge fuels record-breaking infection levels in Vermont, one trend remains the same as it has since the beginning of the pandemic: Covid-19’s disproportionate impact on Vermonters of color.
Black Vermonters continue to have the highest cumulative Covid rate in the state, more than double the rate for white Vermonters, according to the department’s report. Asian, Hispanic and “other” Vermonters also reported elevated rates compared to white Vermonters.
They also reported the highest rate of cases within the past two weeks, according to the data. The case rate among white Vermonters is also rising, but not as fast.
