The end of the pandemic is in sight — at least by the state’s official measures.
Vermont is on target to achieve an 80% Covid-19 vaccination rate this week, clearing Gov. Phil Scott’s threshold to relax virus-related safety precautions. Scott eliminated the 10 p.m. curfew at bars and restaurants as of Saturday, and case counts are the lowest they’ve been since fall.
But as some public health experts warn of a possible spike in cases this fall, the virus continues to run rampant in parts of the world, portions of the population remain unvaccinated, and some Vermonters are hesitant to shed their masks and return to a pre-pandemic way of life.
“I’d rather be a little bit cautious for a little bit longer,” Burlington resident Jenn Moore said. “I think about going to a busy amusement park or something, and it just makes me cringe.”
Charlene Webster said she is immunocompromised and would continue to wear a mask. “Science is not as clear about how well we are protected from the virus once vaccinated,” she said. “The state lifting mask mandates basically said to these people, ‘Everyone but you are invited to the party.’”
The uncertain process of learning how to feel safe again is normal, said Pam Berenbaum, a professor and director of the global health program at Middlebury College. “The new challenge for public health is getting people to embrace the idea that they have to live with a new risk,” she said.
By all measures, Vermont is leading the nation in its effort to beat back the spread of the virus. Vaccination rates are high and should continue to rise. Kids under 12, who are not yet eligible for a vaccine, are expected to have access to Pfizer doses by this fall. Cases continue to fall. The state is on track to have fewer than 15 cases a week in July, Deputy Health Commissioner Tracy Dolan said.
News for nearby states that have eliminated their Covid-19 restrictions is overwhelmingly rosy. The number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths associated with Covid-19 continue to drop in New Hampshire, Massachusetts and Connecticut, said Mike Pieciak, commissioner of the Department of Financial Regulation, who tracks the state’s Covid-19 data.
He expects Vermont will see the same. Combined with the warm weather, “that should make us feel very comfortable,” he said.
After 14 months of Scott’s state of emergency measures and government-mandated restrictions, Vermonters are now left to measure and analyze their own risks. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention have ruled that masks are no longer necessary outdoors for fully vaccinated Americans. They’re no longer required in Vermont, either, though Scott has continued to allow municipalities and businesses to issue their own mask orders.
That leaves residents with a dizzying array of choices: figuring out when and where to don a mask, with whom they should gather, whether to go to a concert or restaurant, where they should travel and when to get tested.
For some, that’s exhausting, especially after a year laden with anxiety. “All of us have grown used to taking precautions of Covid-19,” said Tim Lahey, an infectious disease doctor at the University of Vermont Medical Center. “We don’t want to get sick. It can make us feel nervous, even if there isn’t the same degree of risk as was there when we started.”
“I think we’re all psychologically wrecked a bit after this year,” said Liz Winterbauer, an instructor of public health at St. Michael’s College.
Even for public health experts, there are simply too many shifting variables to predict the future, she said.
Kids under 12 and some who are immunocompromised are not eligible for the vaccine. Others have decided against getting the shot. While inoculation seems to provide long-term immunity, the science is still out on exactly how long protection will last.
The virus continues to spread rapidly in India and other parts of the world. The coronavirus will inevitably mutate and change and could make infection more dangerous or evolve to become impervious to existing vaccines.
“It will keep on mutating because that is what viruses do,” Berenbaum said. “This particular virus has proven to be incredibly adept at spreading through the human population.”
Public health experts agreed that some outbreaks are inevitable, especially in communities or areas with lower vaccination rates.
“Vermont and the Northeast are in a really good position as it relates to the summer and into the fall,” Pieciak said. “There’s no reason to think that the state will see a rise.”
Dolan said the state would continue surveilling for cases and continue with testing at testing sites and in schools this fall. “If you’re vaccinated, you’re doing pretty much whatever you did before” the pandemic, she said.
Winterbauer warned against throwing caution to the wind.
“There’s a real danger of letting our guard down and this coming back,” she said. “Viruses want to survive, and they’re going to try to evolve in a way that they’re going to continue to be able to transmit themselves.”
Those differing levels of confidence are reflected in the general population as well.
People should expect to feel a sense of discomfort after a year on high alert, Berenbaum said. “We’ve trained ourselves to be so vigilant. Having so many stress hormones in our body, it’s hard to relax.”
Without strict guidance from state and federal officials, “we’ve been out of practice evaluating our own risk tolerance levels,” she said. “Now people are saying, why is this my decision?”
Berenbaum said people will continue to make decisions based on what makes them feel comfortable.
Moore said she will continue to be cautious. She and her family members don’t plan on socializing indoors or eating inside at a restaurant for the foreseeable future — at least until her 11-year-old daughter is eligible to get the vaccine.
That decision, she said, has a psychological component as well as a scientific one. “We’re in the middle of this mass death event,” Moore said. “Of course it feels weird to take your mask off.”
We will learn to live with Covid-19 for the long term, Berenbaum said. Like influenza, the virus will infect and likely kill a certain number of people each year — but, like driving to the grocery store or eating junk food, it poses a manageable risk.
“We’re about as safe as we can be,” she said. “This is just another risk we have to live with.”
Vermonters prioritized keeping each other safe by wearing masks during the height of the pandemic, Lahey said.
As we shed our masks, we can do the same. The state’s residents have learned “it works much better to be tolerant and supportive and to be nice to each other,” he said.