Let’s start with the good news: More than 50% of Vermonters 16 and older have received at least one dose of the Covid-19 vaccine — meaning about half the state now has some level of protection from the virus that causes Covid-19.
But the progress comes at a time when speculation is raging about how a federal “pause” in using the Johnson & Johnson vaccine will affect the United States’ reopening progress.
The pause began when six women between ages 16 and 48 developed a rare, serious blood clot disorder a week or two after receiving the Johnson & Johnson shot. One of the women died.
At first, federal officials expressed confidence that the pause would be short, just enough time to evaluate the (so far) one-in-a-million risk and issue recommendations. But the advisory committee in charge of reviewing the risk met Wednesday and asked for more time, between a week to 10 days, before recommending what to do.
On Tuesday, Gov. Phil Scott expressed confidence that Vermont will be able meet most of its reopening targets despite the J&J problem. The state’s reopening plan has several steps, allowing looser and looser restrictions, with a target of July 4 for a return to normal life.
“Even though we’re not receiving any Johnson & Johnson next week, we’re receiving a couple of million more doses across the country” from Pfizer and Moderna, he said. “So we’re on par with where we were last week. We feel as though we’ll be OK at this point in time.”
Next week’s vaccine eligibility category — all Vermonters 16 and older — will see Pfizer and Moderna clinics listed on the Department of Health website, health department spokesperson Ben Truman said.
Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention show that Johnson & Johnson has made up a relatively small percentage of Vermont’s doses so far. The state received 1,200 doses of that shot last week, compared to 10,530 first-dose shots of Pfizer and 7,300 first-dose shots of Moderna.
The one-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine has been used in only 18% of vaccinations in Vermont since distribution began March 8.
Whether it could have a bigger effect down the line depends not only on the length of the pause or the findings of the committee, but also on how well Pfizer and Moderna will be able to continue scaling up their production levels as the state expands its vaccine eligibility.
Vermont has continuously increased its doses distributed per day, according to Department of Financial Regulation data. It recently hit a new record of 11,000 doses given out in a single day, and its seven-day average doses delivered is between 8,000 and 9,000.
The closer Vermont comes to hitting the ceiling of Pfizer and Moderna doses, the more it will struggle to overcome the potential shortfall from the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. Vermont’s projections for the number of people vaccinated by key reopening dates — May 1 and June 1 — appear to assume that Vermont can, at minimum, continue its current vaccine pace.
If the Johnson & Johnson pause is extended, the state will also lose one strategic advantage: Its one-dose protection could make it easier to vaccinate hard-to-reach populations, such as homeless people.
However, it doesn’t appear the state was taking advantage of that ability prior to the pause. Clinics for school staff members and prison guards in early March were using that vaccine, but Vermont is no longer holding those clinics, instead allowing staff to register for any clinic.
Perhaps the most far-reaching effect of the pause could be public loss of trust in vaccine safety. Early national polling data showed a steep drop in the number of people who believed the Johnson & Johnson vaccine was safe after the announcement.
Confidence in the AstraZeneca vaccine, distributed in Europe, plunged in March after reports came out of blood clot issues similar to the Johnson & Johnson vaccine.
However, confidence in the safety of troublesome vaccines does not necessarily translate to worry about Pfizer and Moderna, both mRNA vaccines with a different mechanism than Johnson & Johnson or AstraZeneca.
On Tuesday, Vermont officials emphasized that the pause was done out of an “abundance of caution,” and that the extreme reaction to the vaccine was extremely rare, occurring six times out of 6.8 million doses.
“Just think about that in comparison to the unfortunately tragic calculations we have in this country of your risk of being a death statistic from Covid, which is about one in 500,” state Health Commissioner Mark Levine said.
Confidence in the vaccine had been high before this announcement, with 85% of Vermonters saying in March they would definitely or probably get the vaccine, Census data show.
Scott said the pause will give providers time to help understand and identify the rare complication so “that they can treat those patients properly. And that will instill the confidence, I think.”
“The goal would be that this be a confidence-building change, as opposed to a confidence-eroding change; people will have more respect even for the process that’s being gone through,” Levine said.
