Headcounts in Vermont’s public schools fell by about 4,400 students this fall, according to newly released data from the Vermont Agency of Education. That’s a roughly 5% drop in enrollment.
Public schools would have lost students even without the pandemic — demographic shifts have been eroding enrollments for about two decades. But the present crisis was widely expected to disrupt enrollment patterns, and this year’s decline in enrollment is much steeper than in previous years.
Lawmakers even passed a temporary, one-year measure to hold school districts harmless for plummeting headcounts when school taxes are calculated. (Local tax rates are based on how much local schools spend per-pupil. If enrollment drops, that usually puts upward pressure on taxes.)
State data reflects the number of students enrolled in Vermont public schools. Not included are publicly funded students attending school through the state’s town-tuitioning program.
“The fact that our enrollments are down does not surprise me,” said Jeff Francis, executive director of the Vermont Superintendents Association. “The question will be, when things get back to normal, whether those kids would come back.”
With Vermont considered for months a national exemplar of pandemic control, many hoped that Covid-19 migrants from urban centers might help repopulate rural schools. But school officials in the fall said that did not appear to be the case and that Covid-migration enrollment gains would likely be eclipsed by both pre-pandemic demographic trends and the numbers leaving for homeschool.
In the Kingdom East Supervisory Union, superintendent Jen Botzojorns said families fleeing Boston or New York, and who had second homes or condos around the nearby ski mountains, did indeed enroll new students into Kingdom East schools. But overall enrollment nevertheless plummeted by about 14%, according to state data.
Families gave different reasons for opting out. The school district offered an all-virtual option and a full-time in-person one. Some parents didn’t want their child in school with Covid-mitigation protocols in place, Botzojorns said, while others didn’t want to risk in-person school at all. A lack of good internet service, meanwhile, made the remote option a nonstarter for many.
“Our school-based teams have reached out to all families to understand next year, and if the children will return to in-person,” the superintendent said. “Many parents/guardians are eager for their children to return; however, the status of Covid will influence their decisions.”
A little over half of the students lost from public schools appear to be homeschooling, which boomed this fall as school districts scrambled to announce their reopening plans. There are 5,069 students enrolled in home study programs this school year, the Vermont Agency of Education reported Thursday. That’s 2,599 more than last year.
Many independent schools in Vermont marketed themselves specifically around offering a full-time, in-person instructional experience. But according to Mill Moore, executive director of the Vermont Independent Schools Association, the state’s private schools, on the whole, do not appear to have been beneficiaries of the public school exodus.
Overall, private school enrollment went up about 1%, he said, although “the differences by school categories are astonishing.”
“Approved” independent schools — which can receive publicly-funded students — are down by about 4%, which Moore says is within the normal range of enrollment variation. Meanwhile, enrollment at “recognized” independent schools, which cannot accept public vouchers, is up by 32% — but that represents only a little under 200 students.
