Gov. Phil Scott will decide this month whether Vermont will sign on to the Transportation and Climate Agreement, a multi-state effort to combat climate change that would set a regional cap on emissions.
A dozen Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states have been working on the plan, and it should be released this month, along with a list of which states are participating — based on decisions made by each state’s governor.
An initial version of the plan issued last year broadly outlined how the agreement could look.
In the participating states, fuel importers would buy emissions allowances at auction, based on how much on-road gasoline and diesel they sell in each state. States would invest that money in carbon-cutting measures, such as public transit and electric vehicle incentives.
Last year’s plan did not specify a regional cap on emissions, but projected the costs and benefits of reducing carbon pollution by 20% to 25% by 2032.
The plan has been hailed by environmental advocates, but has drawn criticism for its likely boost to fuel prices.
The Transportation and Climate Agreement could raise gasoline prices by 5 cents to 17 cents in 2022, according to an estimate from last year. Prices could continue to go up over the next decade. The rate of increase would depend on how high the emissions target is set— last year’s draft plan considered cutting emissions by 20%, 22%, or 25% by 2032.
Scott has not said whether he’ll sign on to the plan. His spokesperson Rebecca Kelley said Tuesday the deadline for states to make a decision has not yet arrived, and the governor is not “getting ahead of the process at this point.”
Last year, however, the governor said he would not support the agreement if it was just a “carbon tax.” In his State of the State address last January, he said he will not support climate change proposals that increase fuel costs for Vermonters.
“I hear from Vermonters across the state, like those traveling long distances for work out of necessity, not choice, and others, like our seniors living on fixed incomes, who struggle to fill their gas tanks and heat their homes,” Scott said.
“I simply cannot support proposals that will make things more expensive for them,” he said.
When the initial plan was released last year, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, a Republican, said his state would not join the agreement.
“I will not force Granite Staters to pay more for their gas just to subsidize other states’ crumbling infrastructure,” he said last December.
States had been expected to decide in the spring whether to participate in the Transportation and Climate Agreement, but when the Covid-19 pandemic hit deliberations were extended into the fall.
Peter Walke, commissioner of the Department of Environmental Conservation, has represented Vermont in TCI discussions. He expects states to announce details of the agreement in the next week or so. States that decline to participate now could sign on in the future.
“I think there are three paths, I would imagine, for all states, ours included,” Walke said. “There’s the hard yes and a hard no. But I think there’s a ‘We want to stay engaged; we’re not ready to yet’ option as well.”
Democratic lawmakers have said that even if the governor declines to join the pact, the Legislature could vote to require the state to sign the agreement. However, Sen. Chris Bray, D-Addison, chair of the Senate Natural Resources Committee, said he is “cautiously optimistic” the governor will endorse the plan.
He said the fees could be invested in electric vehicles, and transportation will be “more affordable for more Vermonters if we can accelerate the transition to a clean transportation fleet.”
Earlier this week, 103 Vermont businesses and organizations signed on to a letter urging Scott to support the compact.
Bray noted that the state’s legal landscape has changed since the Global Warming Solutions Act became law earlier this year. The state is now legally required to meet its targets for reducing carbon emissions. Scott had vetoed the legislation, but the Legislature overrode the veto, making it law.
The multi-state agreement could help the state reach those emissions targets, Bray said.
“Those climate goals are not legislative goals or executive branch goals; they’re legally binding goals for the state of Vermont,” Bray said. “That was not true a year ago.”
