Vermont reported 65 new Covid cases Monday, a decline from the more than 100 cases reported Saturday and Sunday, Department of Health data shows.
The latest numbers are in line with the data before Thanksgiving, in contrast to a recent single-day surge of 228 cases reported on Thursday due in part to reporting delays from the University of Vermont Medical Center.
Chittenden County, the state’s most populous county, reported the highest numbers for Monday, with 20 new cases. But data from the weekend showed that Washington County also had a recent rise in cases. The county, site of the state’s largest community outbreak, reported 27 cases Saturday and 19 cases Sunday. Windsor County also reported a recent record high of cases on Saturday, with 14 cases reported in a single day.
The state also added four new deaths during the weekend, bringing the total to 81. It’s unclear when those deaths occurred, because the number of deceased is often reported days later due to the time it takes to process death certificates.
The state’s positivity rate is currently 2.8%, far higher than the average this summer but still below the state benchmark of 5%. The state also reports 26 people are hospitalized for the virus, including six in the ICU.
It’s still too early to say for certain how Thanksgiving gatherings impact the latest data, but those answers may come soon. The state uses a 10- to 14-day range of incubation time after a major event to see how it may have affected cases. It’s been 11 days as of Monday.
How Vermont compares
Vermont no longer has the lowest rate of Covid growth nationally, but the state remains ahead of the pack in several other key metrics, according to Covid Tracking Project data.
The state has had a 13% rise in cases in the past 14 days, compared to the national average of 14% — making its performance just barely better than average,with a ranking of 27th in the nation for Covid spread. That’s a significant contrast to data in the summer and fall that often placed Vermont as best in the nation for its Covid rate.
Vermont is now beginning to fall under other states’ travel advisories because of its higher rate of Covid. That’s partly the result of changing strategies — New Jersey, for example, has limited all nonessential travel out of state — but other states, like Massachusetts, with “low-risk” state restrictions are beginning to exclude Vermonters.
Vermont put its travel map on pause in November over concerns about the spread of Covid elsewhere. The Agency of Commerce and Community Development, which maintains the travel map, shows that every county in Vermont and within range of the state falls in the “red” zone.
But Vermont continues to have several major advantages over the rest of the nation. It has the lowest 14-day average hospitalization rate in the nation, indicating that the state’s health care system is ready to handle the current rate of cases, Covid Tracking Project data shows.
And it continues to have one of the lowest positivity rates in the nation, indicating that it is testing the right number of people compared to its population. The national positivity rate is 10.4%, while Vermont has consistently remained below 5%.
The White House Covid Task Force rates Vermont’s Covid situation as “orange,” while most other states are in the “red” zone, according to reports collected by the Center for Public Integrity.
“Vermont’s control of its Covid epidemic stabilized last week but remains at a critical juncture,” the report said.
The report also noted Vermont’s increasing long-term care cases. Twelve percent of federally regulated nursing homes in Vermont have had new cases among their staffs, up six percentage points from last week.
“We share the strong concern of Vermont leaders that the current situation remains critical and that, despite the improvement in cases and test positivity last week, the population and health care system must do everything possible to prepare for and limit a post-Thanksgiving resurgence,” the report said.
