A new study is projecting that Vermont could have 10,000 eviction filings by January because of the adverse economic effects of Covid-19.
But housing officials are skeptical about those dire predictions. In addition, no evictions can take place while the state’s eviction moratorium is in effect.
And while there are concerns that a flood of evictions could hit when the eviction moratorium ends, officials say the 10,000 figure could be overly pessimistic, given the protections put in place to prevent such a crisis.
Still, the number is one of the only finite estimations that attempt to define how big a problem Vermont may be facing.
Burlington — which has more than 10,000 renters, the most of any Vermont community — could be hit the hardest when the state’s eviction moratorium expires 30 days after the end of the Covid-19 state of emergency. These concerns are being raised as residents and city councilors are having contentious conversations about protections for tenants that would keep landlords from evicting them without just cause.
Should Vermont prepare for a wave of evictions?
Under legislation passed this year, all eviction proceedings have been halted until 30 days after the state of emergency ends, which Gov. Phil Scott has been extending on a monthly basis. It’s currently set to expire Nov. 15 but is likely to be extended again.
The study, conducted by investment bank and advisory firm STOUT, primarily uses U.S. Census data and surveys to produce the alarming figure that Vermont could have 10,000 eviction filings by January 2021, if the moratorium were to end.
In a typical year, the state typically has fewer than 2,000 eviction filings.
Housing officials agree that, when the moratorium ends, Vermont and its largest communities could face a flood of eviction filings. But they differ on whether it could reach 10,000.
“It seems like a scary number,” said Chris Donnelly, director of community relations for Champlain Housing Trust, which oversees about 2,400 affordable housing units.
In the trust’s portfolio, Donnelly said, one of every six renters has struggled to make the full monthly rent payment. If that rate is typical among the 80,000 renters in the state, he said, 10,000 eviction filings “doesn’t seem way out of whack.”
But he also noted that the study, which analyzes eviction filing projections for every state in the nation, didn’t take into account the $25 million Covid-19 rent relief fund that the Legislature passed this year to help prop up renters who lost income due to Covid-19 and fell behind on their rent. That fund has been used to help clients of Champlain Housing Trust who have struggled to pay their full rent, Donnelly said.
The STOUT study also projects that rent shortfalls in Vermont will reach $20 million to $33 million by January 2021 — an amount that is almost entirely covered by the rent relief fund. However, that fund, provided through Vermont’s $1.25 billion share of the federal stimulus package, has to be spent by Dec. 31, under the terms dictated by Congress.
About $8 million of that $25 million pot has been used so far for renters who have struggled to make rent payments, said Richard Williams, executive director of the Vermont State Housing Authority.
Based on his gut feeling, Williams said the 10,000 projection seems high.
“I don’t buy that number of 10,000 evictions,” Williams wrote in an email. “No way will VT see those numbers.”
What renters said
The study primarily relies on two data sets conducted by the Census. One surveyed Vermonters about how confident they felt about making next month’s rent payments. Out of about 100,000 Vermonters, 7,296 said they had no confidence they could pay their rent on time, while 46,496 said they had high confidence they could pay their rent on time.
The other survey, which assessed how Vermonters were dealing with food, income and housing security, reported that of about 480,000 Vermonters, 48% experienced loss of income; 6.8% are experiencing food insecurity; and 12.3% are experiencing housing insecurity.
Jean Murray, an attorney with Vermont Legal Aid, said she is worried about a “big explosion” of evictions. “Certainly not for the reasons stated in this census report,” Murray said.
She pointed to the Census survey that primarily relied on renters’ feelings in their confidence to pay rent on time. She said those are feelings, not hard data, which leads her to question the severity of the 10,000 eviction prediction.
Murray noted the study did not take into account the $25 million relief fund, which she said was established to prevent a massive eviction crisis, and seems to have worked so far. However, if Congress doesn’t extend the Dec. 31 spending deadline and Vermonters lose rent relief, Murray said that could cause problems.
“Vermont passed laws and funded a program,” Murray said. “So I don’t think you can come back around and say, ‘Yeah, there’s going to be 10,000 evictions.’ No, we did something about that.”
She wouldn’t go so far as to say that Vermont has done enough to keep an eviction crisis at bay. “Do I think there’s enough protections in place? I mean, I can always think of more,” she said. Like passing laws to allow tenants to set up a payment plan for overdue rent with landlords, instead of just relying on evictions to oust a tenant who fell behind on rent.
She also thinks the state should establish a rent relief program beyond the Covid-19 pandemic. She said Legal Aid has found that it’s often a $2,000 rent shortfall that forces a tenant into an eviction. If the state had a fund to prevent Vermonters from losing their housing in the first place, it could save the state much more money down the road when they have to find residents alternative shelter.
How about avoiding evictions?
Angela Zaikowski, director of the Vermont Apartment Owners Association, doesn’t think it’s possible to project how many evictions Vermont will experience when the moratorium ends, given the uncertainty around federal funding for rent relief and the progression of the pandemic.
She’d rather focus on solutions to prevent evictions anyway, she said. “The conversation is more about how do we continue this program to make sure people can stay housed,” Zaikowski said, “rather than focus on how many evictions there are going to be.”
One of those solutions is a recently established landlord-tenant mediation program that the Apartment Owners Association is funding as an alternative to an eviction proceeding. Through the program, which Zaikowski said has yet to take on any clients, landlords and tenants can negotiate conflicts with a third-party mediator.
62% renters in Burlington
Through her work as an administrator for the Burlington Tenants Union, Christie Delphia said she’s heard concerns from many people that the city will see a surge of evictions when the moratorium ends.
“They’re very concerned that we’re going to see homelessness skyrocket,” Delphia said.
Burlington is made up of 6,268 owner-occupied households and 10,395 rentals, according to 2018 data from the Vermont Housing Finance Agency. That means renters make up 62% of Burlington’s housing market.
These looming concerns about evictions are part of the reason Delphia and many other tenants have been involved in contentious discussions about adding “just cause” eviction protections to the city’s charter. Under the protections, tenants could be evicted only for a reason, such as breaking lease provisions or owing rent.
Delphia recognized that the “just cause” proposal, which is going through the years-long charter change process that requires a citywide vote and legislative approval, may not protect Burlington tenants behind on their rent due to Covid-19 economic pressures.
But it would add an extra layer of protection for tenants during a time when an already precarious housing market is becoming even tighter, Delphia argued.
“Sixty percent of households are renters, so the threat to this community is great. It’s huge,” said City Councilor Brian Pine, P-Ward 3, of the fears of impending evictions.
While these Covid-19-related eviction concerns exist, he said “just cause” eviction protections shouldn’t be thought of as a Covid response. That’s because they wouldn’t protect Burlingtonians from an eviction because they’re behind on rent brought on by Covid-19 economic hardships. Failing to pay rent is a “just cause” eviction.
The “just cause” proposal, Pine argues, is more about leveling the playing field for landlords and tenants.
“Government has a role to balance the needs and interests of the community. That’s where the tension is, primarily,” Pine said. “It’s about shifting the balance of power from those who own to those who rent.”
Councilors under scrutiny
The City Council’s conversation about “just cause” evictions has come under scrutiny for lacking transparency. Councilor Joan Shannon, D-South District, had requested that Bill Ward, Burlington’s code enforcement director, contact every property owner in the city’s landlord directory about the “just cause” proposal that was being discussed before the Charter Change Committee in late September. Shannon had made the request over emails, which were published by local activist Charles Winkleman.
The request to contact landlords and not tenants has drawn ire from Shannon’s council colleagues and the Burlington Tenants Union.
City Council President Max Tracy, P-Ward 2, told Seven Days that Shannon’s actions “crossed the line” and she should have found other ways to notify tenants. Shannon, who is a landlord, said she felt tenants’ views had been properly represented because tenant advocacy groups are pushing for the protections. She also said there is no directory of tenants to contact.
“To the extent that we have the ability to let stakeholders know about conversations that affect them, I think we should,” Shannon said. “I have discussed what I did with the city attorney and there’s no conflict of interest. There’s nothing wrong with what I did.”
Pine had also disclosed during last Monday’s City Council meeting that the Community Development and Neighborhood Revitalization Committee had violated open meeting law in September, when it failed to properly notify the public that a conversation about “just cause” evictions was taking place.
Pine said neither he nor the other two councilors on the committee, Zoraya Hightower, P-Ward 1, and Sarah Carpenter, D-Ward 4, knew that the meeting hadn’t been properly noticed to the public. He said a staff member, who is relatively new to the committee, mistakenly neglected to post the meeting schedule online, in City Hall and two other public places, as required by law.
