In 2018, the speaker of Vermont’s House came within 174 votes of losing her seat.
As Rep. Mitzi Johnson, D-South Hero, enters her 10th election, some of her supporters think this could be her last, given how close she came to defeat two years ago and a narrowing vote total in years prior. She’s going up against the same Republican opponents: Michael Morgan, the nephew of the county’s other representative, Leland Morgan, who knocked off Johnson’s Democratic seat mate two years ago. Andy Julow of Grand Isle is the other Democrat on the ballot.
The Morgans represent a relatively new slice of the district, most of which is made up of the Grand Isle islands that divide Vermont and New York in Lake Champlain. In 2002, the legislative area was redistricted to include a section of western Milton, where both Morgans reside.
Johnson’s supporters are also worried that, if Mike Morgan wins, they could lose on-island representation in the House. The House district also includes South Hero, where Johnson is from, Grand Isle, North Hero, Alburgh, and Isle La Motte.
Johnson lost her first run for the House in 2000. She tried again in 2002 and won, and for the next decade enjoyed fairly comfortable margins of victory. As she accumulated prestige in the Statehouse — in 2014 she became chair of the powerful House Appropriations Committee, and in 2017 the speaker of the House — her victories became slimmer.
Johnson has continued winning elections, but just barely. In 2014, she won reelection by just 31 votes. In 2016, she won by 103 votes. Then with a slightly higher count in 2018.
Jack Moulton, executive director of the Vermont Republican Party, told Seven Days in 2018 that picking up seats in the historically purple Grand Isle/Chittenden County area is at the “top of the list.” And in 2018, the GOP captured one of the district’s two seats — Leland Morgan beat Democratic incumbent Ben Joseph by 58 votes. Joseph called for a recount, which confirmed Morgan had won.
“There’s some kind of intangible value to beating the speaker,” Moulton said at the time.
The last election’s close call worries some of Johnson’s supporters, who say the Republican pressure is increasing their anxiety.
“They’re bringing up that darn carbon tax. They know it’s like a buzzword,” said Grand Isle resident Carol Tremble, referring to some of the Republican criticism of Johnson. “They’re saying that she’s going to raise our taxes and the carbon tax is so wrong.”
Tremble, who is treasurer of the Grand Isle Democratic Committee, said she’s concerned the Morgans will win both seats. She said she’s heard talk that Johnson hasn’t been as attentive to her constituents as she might be — emails and phone calls have gone unanswered.
“If she’s busy working in Montpelier, maybe she can’t answer every phone call?” Tremble said.
Grand Isle resident Dave Hobbs — who was the island’s only doctor from 1982 to 2012 — said in the 30 years he’s known Johnson, she’s always made herself available to him. But still, he said he’s “absolutely” concerned she could lose this election. Not because he thinks Johnson hasn’t been an effective leader in the Statehouse, but because her Republican opponent came close to beating her the last time.
“It was close before,” Hobbs said. “And I see signs all over the place. It makes me feel anxious.”
He’s worried that, if Johnson loses, Grand Isle won’t have any on-island legislators. Sen. Dick Mazza, D-Grand Isle, lives in Colchester, which is part of the island county’s Senate district.
“The unfortunate thing is that a small hunk of Milton is included in our representation here,” Hobbs said. “And if the Morgans get two legislative spots, then we’ll have no representation.”
Special interest money less than last election
Speaker Johnson, who just wrapped up a particularly grueling legislative session extended by Covid-19, dismissed her supporters’ fears that this election could be her last.
“Every year I get anxiety from my supporters, right? Every year they’re worried about the number of yard signs that are out there or, you know, if somebody’s doing enough,” Johnson said.
“My attitude in a campaign is that voters have a choice, right? That’s the core of our democracy is that voters have the choice,” she said. “I do not take that for granted.”
Johnson recognized that her winning margins have been slipping, and says it’s a result of her growing Democratic stature in the Legislature.
“What’s happened since 2014, ‘16, is that, basically, I’ve become a bigger Republican target as I moved up in the Democratic ranks,” she said.
Knowing this, in 2018 Johnson revved up her campaign and raised more than $29,000.
The last election followed tumultuous negotiations over a package of gun reforms that Gov. Phil Scott eventually signed in partnership with Democratic leadership, stoking Republican efforts to oust Johnson.
The Republican State Leadership Committee Vermont PAC spent $186,000 on TV, radio and postcard materials to steer voters away from Democratic and Progressive candidates, including Johnson. Opposition funding hasn’t reached those levels this year in the Grand Isle/Chittenden House race, according to this year’s campaign finance reports.
But Johnson said she wouldn’t be surprised if it picked up. Poll numbers suggest Gov. Phil Scott will likely secure reelection and the Republican Party hasn’t lined up a large number of candidates to oppose Democratic incumbents, so why not put more financial heat on the speaker’s race? Still, Republican Scott Milne is mounting a competitive race for lieutenant governor, which may prompt the party to swing money that way.
State GOP Chair Deb Billado did not respond to a request for comment.
Michael Morgan has increased his fundraising this election cycle. In 2018, he brought in $7,255, including two $250 donations from the Common Sense Leadership PAC, run by the former House minority leader, Don Turner, of Milton. This year, Morgan has reported $12,719 in donations, including $3,120 from Bissonette Properties, one of the largest rental companies in Burlington, and $1,000 from Carol Breuer, who has donated to a dozen other Republican candidates this year.
Breuer, who is from Massachusetts but owns a home in Stowe, previously donated $110,000 to a Massachusetts campaign to repeal anti-discrimination protections for transgender people. She and her husband have financially supported other organizations that aim to rescind LGBTQ rights.
Michael Morgan did not return requests for comment from VTDigger. When Leland Morgan was contacted by phone, he said, “I’d rather not talk to any newspapers,” and ended the call.
Spencer Dole, House campaign director for the Vermont Democratic Party, said the party is keeping an eye on the Grand Isle/Chittenden county race, but is not overly concerned because of Johnson’s strong record as House speaker.
“We obviously always want to make sure the speaker wins reelection and is protected,” Dole said.
Up until Tuesday evening, it appeared Johnson hadn’t raised any money at all for this year’s campaign. She said that’s because she submitted her filings late. As of Oct. 7, Johnson had raised $975 this cycle, on top of about $15,000 carried over from her last campaign.
She’s spent $6,738 so far this election, primarily on online and newspaper advertising and reelection postcards.
Johnson, who is running alongside Democrat Andy Julow of Grand Isle, said her pitch to voters is the same this year as it was last election: her constituents have an advantage in the Statehouse because she’s speaker of the House. Johnson said she wants to keep it that way.
“I can bring the priorities and needs of this community to kind of the core of every discussion,” Johnson said.
She said she’s not “terribly worried” about losing this election. She lost one in 2000, her first run for the House. Regardless of the results, she said, she’ll be out on Grand Isle’s sandbar to say thank you.
“After every election, including the first one that I lost, I was on the sandbar Wednesday morning after the election with a thank you sign to voters,” Johnson said. “The first time was thank you for a respectful process and for, you know, sharing your thoughts with me. And every time since then has been thank you for the good process and sharing your thoughts and for electing me.”
“And whatever happens on the night of the third,” she said, “I will be out there on the sandbar.”
