Vermont’s case numbers remain low, but rising numbers in its surrounding regions had state officials warning Vermonters against complacency in the coming weeks and months.
“There are areas very close to home that are struggling currently with the virus,” said Mike Pieciak, head of the Department of Financial Regulation, who led a presentation about Vermont’s latest numbers at a Tuesday press conference.
One worrying spike is in Quebec, which saw a resurgence in cases that has forced the province to close bars, restaurants and some other businesses.
“At one point Quebec was in a better position than we were, and now it’s seen an explosion in cases,” Gov. Phil Scott said. Officials said cases are doubling weekly.
Pieciak pointed to academic models that show a national rise in cases expected through the end of the year. Cases have already started to rise nationwide and in the Northeast, although the South and Midwest are currently seeing the worst rebound in numbers.
Officials confirmed that there have been no new cases at a Rutland nursing facility, where two staff members and one patient tested positive on Friday.
Mountain View Center staff was “practicing great infectious control practices” and had quarantined affected staff and patients, Levine said. After learning of the cases, the Department of Health tested all the staff and patients late last week.
The news comes as the state announces a new testing initiative to protect vulnerable populations. Dr. Mark Levine, head of the Department of Health, said the federal government is sending 12,000 Abbott rapid antigen tests to Vermont. The state may get up to 180,000 tests by the end of the year.
Antigen tests are relatively inexpensive and return results faster than traditional testing, making them easier to use at the point of care. Some return results in only 15 minutes, compared to 24 hours or more for traditional Covid tests in use in Vermont.
Levine said the government plans to prioritize antigen testing for people who are at most risk of Covid complications, such as older, Black or Native American Vermonters. They are considering using the tests to lower long-term care facility restrictions on visitors and other rules.
Antigen testing has run into controversy in Vermont in the past. One health center in Manchester reported dozens of cases before the Department of Health revealed most were false positives.
Another concern with antigen testing in general is false negatives — people testing negative who actually have the disease. Levine said potential inaccuracies are important to keep in mind when planning to use this test, particularly with Vermont’s low case rate.
“A positive reading may actually be a false positive because the pretest probability of that test being positive was so low in our current settings,” he said.
“So we’re just whetting our appetite with that, saying we are not going to throw away these cards, they will definitely be used in Vermont, but they’ll be used with a significant amount of guidance,” he said.
Just over the weekend, a positive antigen test popped up at a Caledonia County elementary school, Levine said. But the Department of Health is waiting for official confirmation with the traditional PCR tests before reporting the results in its public data.
Maine outbreaks: A case study
Nearly two months after a wedding in Maine that was attended by 62 people, the event has been connected to 180 cases and eight deaths. Pieciak described the incident as an illustration of how the virus spreads — and where social distancing restrictions broke down to allow one event to cause several mini-outbreaks across the state.
“The CDC director in Maine has emphasized the same messages that we’re trying to point out here, about needing to follow guidelines both on the individual standpoint, and also on the institution standpoint, making sure that institutions are continuing to follow state guidance,” he said.
The wedding in rural Millinocket itself was indoors, slightly above the event limit of 50 people, and had few masks and little social distancing, Pieciak said. But it spread beyond that one night to a rehab center, a church and a jail.
One sibling of a wedding guest was an employee of Maplecrest Rehabilitation Center in Madison, a hundred miles from the wedding, and worked a 10-hour shift despite showing symptoms of Covid. Their manager did not check the symptom log. The center had 39 cases.
At the York County Jail, an infected wedding attendee worked with inmates without a mask or going through any temperature check or symptom screening. The jail has had at least 85 cases.
The wedding officiant and several families that attended the wedding came to Calvary Baptist, where worshippers came indoors and sang together. The church has had 10 cases.
“This one event happened in Maine, and see how quickly it spread throughout the state now,” Pieciak said.
A number of outbreaks have happened in Maine since the wedding, but they’re harder to connect directly with the event.
“There’s such a high level community transmission happening in your county that it’s hard to sort of differentiate any of these events from the specific link in the wedding,” he said. “But you can see they range from the jail, to a workplace, to a school, to a restaurant, to a family function to restaurant, to other worksite, so it’s really critical here to stay on top of, of these guidance.”
