Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman decisively defeated his competitors in the Democratic primary for governor on Tuesday.
But he will face a much tougher challenge in November.
Zuckerman, a Progressive Democrat who’s an organic farmer from Hinesburg, will try to unseat Gov. Phil Scott, a popular moderate Republican who has received high marks across the political spectrum for his handling of the Covid-19 crisis.
In general, Vermont voters tend to heavily favor incumbents. An incumbent governor hasn’t lost since 1962, when Democrat Phil Hoff unseated Republican Gov. F. Ray Keyser Jr.
But some see Zuckerman as the Democratic Party’s best shot at defeating Scott.
“If you’re going to put somebody in to pitch this game, you’re probably not going to do better for a candidate than David, considering who the batter is,” said John Franco, a longtime Burlington Progressive and a former chair of the state’s Progressive Party.
In the primary election, Zuckerman won 44% of the votes; his most formidable opponent, former education secretary Rebecca Holcombe, received 34%.
Zuckerman is well known throughout the state; he’s been lieutenant governor since 2016 and was in the Vermont Legislature for 18 years before that. He is also close with U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., who has endorsed him in this year’s race.
“I don’t want to count him out,” Matthew Dickinson, a professor of political science at Middlebury College, said of Zuckerman. “He has name recognition; he’s got campaign infrastructure that he can draw on, backed by Bernie Sanders. I think certainly he’s going to run a strong race.”
Dickinson said the general election will be an “uphill battle” for Zuckerman, particularly given the governor’s popularity during the Covid-19 crisis — 83% of Vermonters approve of his response to the pandemic, according to poll results issued last week.
And the professor said the governor, who is not actively campaigning, gets the “free publicity” that comes along with the pandemic: twice-weekly press conferences covered by the press and broadcast on TV.
Dickinson said the governor gets the benefit of this publicity while “appearing above the political fray.” He pointed to the press conference the governor held on primary day, in which he barely mentioned the election.
“How often does a candidate hold a press conference on Election Day without even bothering to make the case for why he should be elected,” Dickinson said. “That’s extraordinary.”
Senate Majority Leader Becca Balint, D-Windham, said Zuckerman’s path to victory may be widened by voter turnout that is expected to be particularly high among Democrats in an election with President Donald Trump at the top of the ticket.
Voter participation in the Aug. 11 primary shattered previous records. According to the Vermont Secretary of State’s latest election results, which are still unofficial, about 109,000 Vermonters cast ballots in the Democratic gubernatorial primary. About 59,000 people voted in the Republican governor’s race.
“Part of David’s path to victory is that Democrats are energized,” Balint said. “It’s not a guarantee that we will have that same kind of turnout in the general, but even if a significant portion of those people turn out, and if they’re straight ticket voters, then I think David has a good chance.”
Balint said that the fact that this year is a presidential election with President Donald Trump on the ballot could also “give David a boost.”
Outside money
Although Scott isn’t campaigning, the Republican Governors Association has already started attacking Zuckerman. In an email the day after the election, the GOP group called the lieutenant governor “a fringe socialist” who “would bury Vermonters under an avalanche of taxes and make communities less affordable and less safe across the state.”
The email pointed to a list of proposed taxes Zuckerman has supported, and pointed out his record on vaccines, which came under intense criticism from Holcombe during the primary.
The Republican Governors Association has already placed $125,000 into a political action committee to support Scott in this election cycle. It spent $50,000 earlier this year on a series of social media ads that praised Scott’s response to the Covid-19 crisis.
Former Gov. Jim Douglas, a Republican, called Zuckerman a “smart guy” and “credible candidate,” but said his odds of victory aren’t good, given Scott’s popularity during the pandemic.
“I think his timing is bad. And that’s not something he could have anticipated when he decided to run,” Douglas said.
Douglas said Scott is “appealing to Vermonters across the spectrum.” According to the latest poll from Vermont Public Radio and Vermont PBS, the vast majority of Democrats — 96% — support Scott’s pandemic response.
On the campaign trail, Zuckerman will make the case that he has a better “vision to rebuild Vermont” than Scott. He has criticized Scott for blocking a $15-an-hour minimum wage, vetoing paid family leave, and failing to invest in broadband expansion and the struggling state college system.
Zuckerman favors a tax on the wealthiest Vermonters to fund climate change initiatives, and to cover Vermont’s state budget gap and avoid making cuts in state programs.
“We’ve had a solid governor who’s reacted well to challenges, but he hasn’t had much vision or leadership to better prepare us for those challenges,” Zuckerman said in an interview late on election night.
“And the question is now what kind of leadership and vision do Vermonters want? Someone who plans and builds for the future, or someone who reacts well but didn’t prepare us as well as possible?”
The virus factor
Doug Racine, a former Democratic lieutenant governor, said Scott could have unforeseen vulnerabilities, depending on how the pandemic plays out.
He said if Vermont faces Covid-19 outbreaks linked to the reopening of schools in the coming weeks, the governor could face ire from voters.
“If that starts happening in Vermont because he’s pushing for schools to be reopened, things can change really quickly,” Racine said. “It could change people’s perceptions of him. Things change rapidly in this business of politics.”
Balint, the Senate majority leader, also said that Scott will be most impacted in the upcoming election by how he handles school reopenings.
“I hear more anxiety about that in my county than anything else,” Balint said. “We’re entering a new phase here with schools opening, and if that does not go well, and if people still feel this level of anxiety, I think they might be willing to give David another look.”
In general, Racine thinks that Zuckerman can make a strong case to voters that recovering from the pandemic, and “going back to the old normal,” shouldn’t be the end goal.
“The governor’s doing what every governor should do, which is listen to the health experts and communicate with the public. That’s sort of basic,” Racine said.
“But I think David can make a case that that’s not enough. That Vermont needs a governor who wants to move things forward, make progress on health care and climate change, on a minimum wage increase, and better jobs for people. And I don’t hear the governor talking about the future in that way at all.”
Patricia Siplon, a professor of political science at St. Michael’s College, said she thinks Zuckerman’s progressive vision would have stronger appeal at the national level.
“I feel like there’s a national mood that is really receptive to that,” Siplon said. “But here in Vermont I think, first of all, we don’t kick out incumbent governors, and we especially don’t when we like them.”
