DOVER — When news of Covid-19 first reached this Mount Snow resort town, every sighting of an out-of-state license plate led to unsubstantiated talk of a wave of newcomers fleeing the virus.
Then electronic counters along municipal recreation trails showed the number of midweek hikers and bikers — people typically living locally rather than in lodging — doubled this spring.
And real estate agents watched single-family home sales rise 20% compared with last year, even with several weeks of shuttered business and continued travel restrictions.
Now the town’s elementary school, educating 86 students last spring, is anticipating enrollment to climb by a quarter to more than 100 this fall.
“People are moving to Dover,” confirms Town Clerk Andy McLean, who’s recording more property transfer paperwork. “It feels like it did after 9/11, when folks in the city wanted a place to get away. Now they’re seeing the low number of virus cases in Vermont, and if you drive from Boston, New York and surrounding suburbs, the first big real ski mountain you hit is us.”
The news should be good for this town of 1,124 and other resort communities facing similar spikes. Estimates have projected Vermont’s population is flat or falling since the 2010 census. Gov. Phil Scott, devoting much of his 2020 State of the State address to the subject, identified Vermont’s overall declining numbers as his “biggest concern.”
But the current growth brings pluses and minuses, local leaders say. Newcomers who stay raise the population — and require the town to lure more tourists to take their place at local hotels and motels.
“Although it’s nice to see more people here, it’s those peak vacation times that really drive most of our businesses,” says Richard Caplan, owner of Deerfield Valley Real Estate.
To attract visitors and homebuyers, the town operates its own economic development office.
“There has been quite a bit done to improve internet, and we’re still highly focused on it,” office director Eric Durocher says. “With it, a lot of people can work remotely.”
That said, the town’s biggest selling point is its geography, with Vermont’s Interstate 91 gateway exits less than 30 miles away.
“People are looking to get out of the hotspots, and southern Vermont is so accessible,” Caplan says at his real estate office, which also sells property at the nearby Stratton and Haystack mountains.
Agents had to temporarily close this winter and still face restrictions on how they can show houses. Even so, interest is high (Dover’s average price has jumped from $243,000 a year ago to $311,000 today) and inventory is low (although 58 homes currently have for-sale signs, 23 are under contract).
“Typically April, May and June are quiet in real estate, but this year is nothing like any of us have ever seen,” Caplan says. “It’s kind of a perfect storm, and I don’t see it slowing down.”
The rush to buy has made it challenging to schedule appraisers, attorneys and home improvement contractors. It also has surprised educators who are preparing for nearly two dozen more students at the grades pre K-6 elementary school.
“The School Board increased the size of the building 20 years ago,” area Superintendent William Anton says, “so we easily can accommodate the students.”
Tourists are another question. Caplan runs the Dover Forge restaurant next to his real estate office. He’s trying to figure out how to reopen both now and in the coming ski season.
“Historically July and August are pretty good, but December, January, February and March is when you make your money,” Caplan says. “There’s serious concern about what this winter is going to bring. How do you make it work financially with limited capacity?”
Mount Snow — owned by Vail Resorts, which operates 36 other areas worldwide — can host more than 10,000 people on a busy weekend. Its general manager met recently with the town Selectboard and expressed hope to open for skiing “at some point.” But the worldwide pandemic and related precautions threaten to reduce numbers significantly if not close the slopes entirely.
“We’re walking a fine line,” Durocher says at the economic development office, “between trying to promote our economy and keeping everybody safe.”
Dover’s welcome sign on Route 100 still greets visitors, although it now sports a play on the “Got Milk?” marketing slogan: “Got Mask?”
“When this first started, a lot of our locals were terrified there are too many people fleeing here,” state Rep. Laura Sibilia says. “As the initial shock wears off, folks are calming down.”
Local leaders are seeking ways to register and respond to population gains now rather than wait for the 2020 census.
“I’d like to make contact with folks who have come up during the pandemic to understand more in regard to their plans and needs,” says Sibilia, who’s also on the School Board.
Other offices are crunching their own numbers. The Windham Regional Commission is analyzing data from electronic counters along the town’s recreation trails.
“The fact the weekday figures are so high implies a lot of people are residing locally — full-time residents or second-home owners,” senior planner Jeff Nugent says.
Deerfield Valley Real Estate, for its part, has longtime staffer Chris Cooke calculating sales statistics. He says the coming months will determine whether the current trend is a short or long one.
“There are so many rumors and a lot of hype,” Cooke says. “Numbers don’t lie.”
