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Art Woolf is a columnist for VTDigger. He recently retired as an associate professor of economics at the University of Vermont.
The number of Vermonters being laid off and collecting unemployment insurance continues to be many times what is considered normal, and far higher than in any other economic downturn the state has experienced. But there is a glimmer of good news in the unemployment numbers released today.
Just over 2,000 Vermonters applied for unemployment insurance last week, four times as many as one year ago. Still, that was 800 less than the week before and is the sixth consecutive week that fewer people applied for unemployment benefits than the week before. It is also significantly less than the first week of April, when 16,500 laid-off workers applied for benefits.
As of the end of last week, 55,000 Vermonters were receiving unemployment insurance checks, also fewer than the week before. Last week marks the third consecutive week that the number of Vermonters receiving benefits has fallen.
Those numbers imply a Vermont unemployment rate of 17.4%. But there are good reasons to believe the actual rate may be higher.
Michael Harrington, Vermont interim commissioner of labor, has stated that 90,000 Vermonters have applied for unemployment benefits. And according to the U.S. Department of Labor, no one in Vermont is yet receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance, which goes to self-employed Vermonters who are not receiving any income from their businesses.
When we throw that into the calculation, then Vermont’s unemployment rate could be as high as 27.4%. It’s worth remembering that in February, the rate was 2.4%. Whether Vermont’s unemployment rate is 17.4% or 27.4%, or some number in between, it is the highest it has ever been. We will know more on Friday, when April’s unemployment rate is released.
