Editor’s note: This commentary is by Ernesto Wallace, a builder from Williston.
Austerity is coming. Recent budget projections from state economists reveal that, if nothing changes, Vermont could have a budget shortfall of nearly half a billion dollars. If history and comments from state policymakers are our guideposts, Vermont is in for a rough ride.
So, who will bear the brunt of this shortfall? As most know, Gov. Phil Scott is calmly and decently, but pathologically, against meaningfully raising state revenue. He’s already asked state agencies to “look from within,” for things “we can do without.” Sadly, top Vermont Democrats generally seem to agree. Rep. Janet Ancel, chair of the House tax committee, made clear that she is not interested in raising property taxes to pay for the education budget shortfall. Sen Jane Kitchel, chair of the Senate budget committee, suggested there will be program cuts in the near future.
A hard-right Republican U.S. president and Senate focused on decimating state pensions won’t help. In all likelihood, Vermont’s “have-nots” will be pushed to do without, as the “haves” remain solvent and secure.
Without raising revenue to make up for budget shortfalls, there will be cuts to public programs that provide for people with disabilities, people who use public services most, like seniors and the low-income, and people without shelter. It could also mean moves to cut education budgets, Medicaid, and pensions and benefits, and reduce the state government labor force. All amidst a coming deep recession, after unemployment has skyrocketed. And, it’s clear that Vermonters were already in dire straits: when available, Vermonters sought “meals ready to eat” from the Vermont National Guard in more than double the expected numbers.
Government dysfunction, as seen in the state’s problems handling unemployment claims, will also be exacerbated by further deferred upgrades and maintenance. The lack of adequate technological capabilities has long been a complaint (and convenient excuse) from state agencies. Even our attorney general has complained he doesn’t have the resources to ensure government transparency, while also protecting the environment and consumers: the government equivalent of being able to walk and chew gum at the same time. Without meaningful infrastructure investments, our government’s ability to function will further diminish.
So, who is to blame? The lack of federal support, yes. But, it is also the austerity mindset of our state’s policymakers. Even though Vermont has long had a high credit rating, currently the second-highest possible credit rating, our leaders have been unable or unwilling to take out long-term loans to meet our needs, except a one-time 2017 housing bond that laudably creates more housing stock, but does not provide the means to afford housing.
Policymakers have also declined to meaningfully raise revenue, even though there are serious needs across the state. They still found a way to double the estate tax exclusion, allowing more wealthy people to keep more of their inheritance. In addition, while Vermont’s wealthiest people and corporations have received an enormous tax cut from congressional Republicans and President Trump since 2017, Vermont has not increased state taxes to offset the well-heeled’s enormous gains.
As many have argued, we need better services to keep Vermonters here and to attract more. We are an aging state and should create more and better senior care centers. We have one of the highest high school graduation rates, but many do not attend postsecondary institutions. Universal broadband internet, clean water, prisoner education and reentry programs, direct housing assistance, universal health care and similar investments are needed. These services would help all, provide a better base of workers for our small businesses, and help us attract more residents as our standard of living improves. The same could be said for guaranteed paid parental and family leave, and a livable minimum wage. But, if we maintain an austerity mindset, none of this will happen, and more state and local services will be lost long term.
Unless we want our state to slowly disintegrate into the deep inequality and lower quality of life seen in other states, more revenue needs to be made available. If the wealthy love Vermont like the rest of us, they should want to pitch in! Otherwise, we will get the government we deserve. Eventually, we’ll all feel the pain when visiting run-down state parks, unusable waterways, and pot-holed roads. We all need to dig deep to create the state we want. To decrease state services when people need them most, the cornerstone of austerity mindset, is the height of stupidity and unsustainable failed short-term economics. To steal an old saying: Austerity is over, if you want it.
