Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman and Attorney General TJ Donovan are still seriously mulling bids for the governor’s office, as they wait to see the results of a Vermont Democratic Party poll gauging how they could fare head-to-head against incumbent Gov. Phil Scott.
But with time running out for Democrats to launch gubernatorial campaigns, there’s an increasing sense that former education secretary Rebecca Holcombe, who announced in July, could end up being their leading candidate against Scott come November 2020.
The poll, scheduled to go out this week, will include questions about key Democratic policy issues, and ask Vermonters who they would favor in a potential governor’s race — if it’s Donovan vs. Scott or Zuckerman vs. Scott — according to two sources in the party.
It was not clear Tuesday afternoon if Holcombe is participating in the poll. Her campaign referred VTDigger to the Vermont Democratic Party, which declined to comment.
Zuckerman and Donovan have for months been considering runs for governor and have had discussions with each other. Two sources familiar with their thinking on the matter said they are angling to make final decisions by the end of the year.
In interviews on Tuesday, both dodged questions about the poll and their plans for 2020.
“I’m just focused on my job right now, we’ve been incredibly busy,” Donovan said. “I’m keeping my options open.”
Zuckerman, who throughout 2019 has consistently said he is weighing family responsibility with his wish to run, said he has not given himself a “specific timeline.”
“I have to decide sooner rather than later for my own, [sic] what direction I am going,” Zuckerman said. “There are many family considerations and that hasn’t changed.”
Eric Davis, professor emeritus of political science at Middlebury College, said he doubted Zuckerman and Donovan would want to forfeit their current positions to run against a popular Republican governor.
“I would be surprised if at this point any well known Democrat, who holds office, would be willing to give it up to run against Scott next fall,” he said.
Davis added it is more likely the two stay out of the fray this election, given that congressional seats held by U.S. Sens. Patrick Leahy and Bernie Sanders could soon become vacant.
“I don’t see any justification for them to enter the race. They know Pat Leahy will be 82 years old in 2022, that Bernie will be 80-something when his term is up,” he said. “I think they stay in public office and bide their time.”
In recent years, candidates for governor have started their campaigns in the fall or early winter before the election. However, last year’s Democratic candidate, Christine Hallquist, didn’t announce until February.
Anthony Gierzynski, chair of the political science department at the University of Vermont, said the amount of work that goes into building a successful campaign means the window for candidates to enter the race is quickly closing.
“That type of work makes me suspect you need to be thinking about that before the end of the year. That doesn’t mean there has to be a formal announcement,” Gierzynski said.
Scott says he won’t announce if he is running for another term until next May, but has said he will attempt to stay in office as long as he is enjoying the job.
He has almost single-handedly prevented Democrats from achieving a number of their legislative priorities, despite their large majority in both the House and Senate. A $15 minimum wage, paid family leave, a commercial cannabis market and a waiting period for gun purchases have all been derailed by the Republican governor — mostly through vetoes or veto threats — sometimes with the help of Democratic infighting.
Scott went into the last election boasting that he had not allowed any increase in broad-based taxes during his first term in office. He relented slightly this past session, joining Democrats in support of a vaping tax.
Most Democrats are operating under the assumption that Scott will seek reelection, if for no other reason than a decision not to run in mid-2020 would leave his party in a lurch just months before the August primary.
Holcombe has targeted the governor for falling short on his pledge to make Vermont affordable, as the Democrat has started to campaign around the state and already raised $250,000.
Terje Anderson, the chair of the Vermont Democratic Party, said he’s impressed with Holcombe’s early fundraising and that her tenure as an education secretary makes her a legitimate contender to unseat the Republican governor.
“I would have no problems if she’s our nominee, I think she’s potentially a very strong nominee,” Anderson said. “I think she has a very compelling and strong story about her role in state government, about serving in two different party’s administrations.”
But Holcombe, who would be a newcomer to elected office, will face a challenge establishing name recognition.
“Given she hasn’t run statewide, no matter what, she is going to be quite the longshot,” said Gierzynski.
Brenda Siegel, a progressive activist who ran for governor in 2018, said it’s “very likely” she’ll be announcing a campaign soon. She placed third in the Democratic primary last year, earning 21% of the vote.
Party insiders say they aren’t aware of other Democrats seriously considering runs.
Miro Weinberger, the Democratic mayor of Burlington, is not considering a run for governor in 2020, according to his chief of staff.
Shap Smith, a former speaker of the House, had been contemplating a campaign, but on Tuesday said his return to statewide politics was unlikely in 2020.
“It is something that people have talked to me about and I have thought about and did give it some consideration,” he said. “I’m just not sure that this is the right time personally.”
This week, conservative Republican John Klar announced he was challenging Scott in a 2020 primary.
Another candidate, Douglas Stewart Cavett, has started raising money to challenge Scott, receiving $4,101 in the first five months of 2019, with the majority coming from contributions from family members in Connecticut.
Aidan Quigley contributed reporting.
