[A]fter a surge in support for Sens. Kamala Harris of California and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts from the first Democratic primary debate, Sen. Bernie Sanders’ grip on second place in the polls appears to have loosened.
The first debate of the Democratic primary on June 27th gave potential voters their first look at 20 of the candidates in the crowded field. The field was split with the debates happening over two nights.
Though Sanders remains in second place in many of the post-debate polls, the strong debate showing by Harris and Warren have experts seeing Sanders, once close behind Biden, now in a three-way fight for second with the other two senators.
“If Biden is the 1A, Sanders is the 1B if you were to match them up in a horse race,” said Spencer Kimball, director of polling at Emerson College, “I think now he’s taken a step back into the tier with Harris and Warren.”
In Emerson College’s poll, which took place from July 6 through July 8, Biden is at the top with 30% of support among Democratic voters, while Sanders, Harris and Warren are in a three-way tie with 15%.
Sanders dropped 12 points since Emerson College’s June poll, in which he was polling at 27% to Biden’s 34%.
As the two frontrunners saw their numbers fall, Harris, who had been polling at 7%, gained 8 points while Warren picked up 1 more percentage point of support, creating a tie among the three senators for second place.
“The evidence suggests that Sen. Sanders is sort of dead in the water,” said Bill Galston, a Democratic primary politics expert at the Brookings Institution.
In a CNN poll conducted at the end of June, Sanders is polling even worse, falling four points into fourth place behind Biden (22%), Harris (17% and Warren (15%).
In this poll, similar to the survey administered by Emerson College, Harris and Warren were the big winners, gaining 9 and 8 points respectively, while Biden lost 10 points and Sanders also lost ground.
Galston said the constancy of Sanders’ rhetoric didn’t help him in the June 27th debate.
“He did not make a lot of new friends or converts in the first debate and I think his virtue is his consistency, but his vice is his consistency because he is not putting much new on the table and people have become accustomed to his message,” Galston said.
“The reason I emphasize this is because two formidable contenders in Harris and Warren have made gigantic strides in the last three months,” he added.
Eric Davis, a Middlebury College professor emeritus of political science, agreed with Galston. Democratic voters may be getting fatigued with Sanders and are looking at these other candidates as viable alternatives to Biden, Davis said.
“I think Bernie is stuck on his base and I think Warren and Harris have much more opportunity to grow their coalition than he does at this point,” Davis said.
“My sense is that Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, have a momentum he doesn’t have,” Davis said.
But while political pundits are saying Sanders’ campaign may be in trouble, other polls tell a different story.
In the most recent Politico/Morning Consult poll, Sanders is firmly in second place polling at 19% while Harris — at 14% — and Warren — with 13% — are several points behind the Vermont senator.
Biden still leads the pack with 31%, and based on the Morning Consult polling, a majority of Biden supporters’ say their second choice is Sanders. A majority of the Vermont senator’s supporters also say that if Sanders drops out their second choice would be Biden.
While it is generally thought that Sanders and Warren occupy the same progressive oxygen in the Democratic race, a majority of Warren supporters report that Harris is their second choice option and Harris supporters report that they would support Warren.
Adding to the range of support for candidates, a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted at the end of June found that Sanders (23%) only trailed Biden (29%) by six points, while Harris (11%) and Warren (11%) were well behind in support.
The New York Times also analyzed a number of the recent national polls of registered voters. The Times found that Biden is leading the pack, polling at an average of 26% among registered or likely voters. Sanders is second, with an average of 16%, with Harris behind at 14% and Warren with 13%.
“The field is still fluid with Harris and Warren in particular,” said Kimball of Emerson College. “But Sanders is right there.”
While experts agree that the race is still wide open and that polling data, especially during a primary, is notoriously unpredictable, they said Sanders must change tack if he wants to win the nomination.
“First of all he has to go beyond his current agenda,” Galston said. “He might consider a bold attack in a new direction, and secondly I think he’s going to have roll up his sleeves and plunge into Iowa for the endless face to face meetings that are needed to do well there.”
Even if the Sanders camp does shift strategy, Davis says he expects the Vermont senator will continue to face strong competition from Harris and Warren for the Democratic nomination.
“We just had the first debate,” Davis said. “There is a lot to happen before now and when the nominee is chosen. I think voters are just learning more about these candidates.”
With fresher alternatives in the mix, Davis said Sanders may have trouble picking up momentum.
“I think it’s a difficult road ahead for Bernie,” he said.
