[G]ov. Phil Scott saw a sharp drop in approval in the second quarter of 2018, the latest Morning Consult poll shows, a plummet that political analysts are attributing to his decision earlier this year to tighten the state’s gun laws.
Two other recent polls have shown Scott struggling with his own political base, but unlike those polls, Morning Consult conducts regular polling showing changes over time.
Scott was spotlighted in Morning Consult’s latest rundown of governor rankings thanks to the distinction of having the most dramatic quarterly drop in net approval rating since the company started ranking governors by popularity in 2016.
Net approval rating is calculated by subtracting approval ratings from disapproval ratings. Scott’s net approval was 44 percent three months ago; it is now 5 percent — a 39 percent drop.
Scott, who last quarter was one of the most popular governors in the country, is now one of the least. The new poll shows him dropping from the list of top 10 most liked governors and falling to just three spots away from the 10 least popular state executives.
The governor had a 65 percent approval rating after the first quarter of the year, putting him close to popular blue-state Republican Govs. Charlie Baker of Massachusetts and Larry Hogan of Maryland.
That figure dropped to 47 percent by the end of May, and his disapproval also surged during that time, rising from 21 percent in a poll completed in March to 42 percent in the latest poll. The governor signed new gun control bills into law on April 11.
Morning Consult polled 707 Vermonters, producing results with a 4 percent margin of error.
While 67 percent of Republicans approved of Scott’s performance in the first quarter of 2018, the number fell to 41 percent in the second quarter. Among independents, the rating fell from 61 percent approval to 42 percent.
Morning Consult analysts believe the drop can be pinned on Scott’s move to sign sweeping gun control legislation into law.
“That decision clearly was unpopular,” said Anthony Patterson, a spokesperson for Morning Consult.
Scott, who previously opposed gun control efforts, softened his stance after authorities said they thwarted a school shooting threat in Fair Haven in February, just days after a deadly shooting at a school in Parkland, Florida.
The legislation expanded background checks to private sales, raised the age to purchase a firearm to 21, banned bump stocks and limited magazine size for handguns and rifles. Scott signed it on the Statehouse steps to jeers from gun rights advocates and cheers from gun control supporters.
Brittney Wilson, Scott’s campaign manager, agreed that the dramatic dip in approval almost certainly stems from Scott’s gun policy pivot.
“Given the timing of the poll, April 1 through the end of June, it’s important to note that this poll encompasses the most extreme emotions throughout the legislative session,” Wilson said, adding that the time period also included the beginning of Scott’s fight with lawmakers to prevent tax hikes during a prolonged legislative session.
Wilson said the campaign has been working to remind upset voters of Scott’s accomplishments, including his work to exempt Social Security benefits from taxes and prevent increases in property tax rates.
“When they realize the fiscal discipline the governor has shown, it does put everything back into perspective … and it does ease some of that anger on guns,” she said.
The Republican governor performed best among Democrats in the latest poll, with a 61 percent approval rating. The poll released in April did not include party breakdowns.
Keith Stern, a grocer from North Springfield running against Scott in the Republican primary, hopes to capitalize on the ire the incumbent governor has faced from his previous supporters over the gun control measures. He also says Scott has not done enough to lower taxes.
With the primary only three weeks away, Wilson said the new poll is somewhat concerning.
“I think that given the anger on this issue on guns, couple that with a projected low turnout and that’s a little bit startling,” she said.
But Wilson and most political analysts expect Scott to cruise to victory in the primary and his overall bid for re-election.
“I’m confident the governor’s going to come out on top on Aug. 14, but we certainly need people to come out and vote,” she said.
