The outcome of a dozen down-ticket races in upcoming elections could transform the next two years of politics in Vermont.
Democrats control the Senate and are expected to maintain that power base. If the party can also gain a veto-proof majority in the House of Representatives, the Democrats will have the votes to pursue a policy agenda that for the past two years has been stymied by Republican Gov. Phil Scott and his GOP allies in the Legislature.
A handful of Republican votes in the House this past legislative session blocked a minimum wage increase to $15 an hour over the next five years, paid family leave for employees, and stricter regulations on children’s exposure to toxic substances.
The Democrats were a few votes short of an override of the governor’s veto on each of those bills. Even on issues that divided the House GOP, Republicans united around Scott when it came to protecting his veto power. Scott is expected to easily win a second term.
That could all change if Democrats can flip about a half dozen seats in the House, said Eric Davis, a political science professor emeritus at Middlebury College.
“The range I think for the Democrats is four to seven seats at the expense of the GOP — they could have narrow veto-proof majority,” Davis said.
That would allow Democrats to push ahead with a progressive policy agenda over the next two years — unencumbered by the governor’s opposition. Other priority initiatives that have been blocked by Scott are clean up of the state’s lakes, reducing carbon emissions, and any bill that seeks to raise revenue through new taxes or fees.
The Democrats had 83 House seats this past session and had reliable support from seven Progressives and about six independents. If Dems can win 89 seats in this election, they would have, with these allies, a total of 102 votes — over the two-thirds needed to override a veto in the 150-seat House.
So where do the Democrats have to win?
There are at least nine districts with open seats in which Republicans are stepping down without an incumbent.
The following GOP representatives are leaving the House: Rep. Warren Van Wyck, R-Ferrisburgh (Addison-3), Rep. Cory Parent, R-St. Albans (Franklin 3-1), Rep. Robert Frenier, R-Chelsea (Orange-1), Rep. Janssen Willhoit, R-St. Johnsbury (Caledonia-3), Rep. Patti Lewis, R-Berlin (Washington-1), Rep. Mike Hebert, R-Vernon (Windham-1) and Douglas Gage, R-Rutland City (Rutland 5-4). In Franklin 5, Rep. Steve Beyor and Rep. Chuck Pearce, both Republicans, have left their seats open.
Parent, a rising star in the Republican party, is running for the Senate. The rest are leaving the Legislature altogether. In two of those districts — Addison-3 and Windham-1 — no Republican has filed to run, although candidates can still emerge through the primary process or party appointments. Candidates from both the Republican and Democratic parties have registered in the other districts.
There are also few seats that Democrats hope they can pick up on the strength of this year’s candidates. Energy consultant Avram Patt is running for a seat representing Lamoille-Washington, and filmmaker John O’Brien is launching a bid against David Ainsworth for the lone Windsor-Orange seat, according to the latest filings with the secretary of state (Patt won a House seat in 2014).
Jill Krowinski, the House majority leader, says the Democrats have “a real shot at winning a veto-proof majority.”
“Our candidates are fired up about what is happening in Washington and some of the change in tide about what we are seeing at the Statehouse,” she said.
Krowinski says Dems have been galvanized by Scott’s veto of paid family leave and minimum wage bills.
“Consistently these policies are being voted against and vetoed. That, together with what’s happening in Washington, is motivating people to run,” Krowinski said.
More women are running for office this year, she said, in a response to both Trump and the #MeToo movement.
Krowinski said Democrats were also expecting some tough challenges for seats they won last time around, including a well-funded campaign against Speaker of the House Mitzi Johnson, a representative from South Hero (Grand Isle-Chittenden), who is facing two Republican cousins, Leland and Michael Morgan. Rep. Ben Joseph, another Democrat, will be running again for the other seat in that district.
Krowinski expects national Republican campaign cash to influence the race in Barre City (Washington-3), and Richmond (Chittenden-1), where incumbent Marcia Lawrence Gardner, a Democrat and former state employee, is facing off with Terry Moultroup, a Republican and celebrated former fighter pilot.
Chip Troiano, a Democrat from Stannard, could face a close race against Lawrence Hamel, a Republican from Hardwick. Troiano beat out Hamel in 2016 for the lone seat in Caledonia 2.
“What I am anticipating is national Republicans dumping lots of money into this state to defeat Democrats,” Krowinski said. “We’ve lost House seats because of that. What’s different this year is we are more organized.”
Republicans have struggled to recruit candidates. As of the official filing deadline in June, 77 Republican candidates had registered to run in House races, down from 103 in 2016. Rep. Robert LaClair, R-Barre, has been working with the state Republican party to find and field candidates.
LaClair said the party is overcoming tension between right-wing national Republican stances and more moderate state Republican party positions. That divide is symbolized by Scott and Trump — with their divergence on style and substance. LaClair says the GOP is fielding strong candidates with compelling messages at a local level.
“One person doesn’t define our party. So we’re focusing on Vermont politics and Vermont races,” LaClair said.
“We need to run a focused targeted campaign — the right people with the right message,” he added. “Honestly, looking at the numbers and folks we have out there, we are very optimistic we will hold the 53 and possibly pick up some seats.”
A rift in the party was exposed in April when the state party sent out a mailer asking supporters to “Make Vermont Great Again.”
“There was a bit of a learning curve,” LaClair said of the party reckoning with the Trump presidency in a state where the president is deeply unpopular. “That messaging is not what we are looking to be identified with.”
LaClair said that with an incumbent Republican governor and Don Turner, a strong candidate for lieutenant governor, the party is hoping for a strong turnout. And Republican leaders are still working on getting new candidates onto general election ballots.
The party is also talking with some candidates in Democrat-leaning districts about running without the party label, LaClair added. “Because of the political area they are in, it would be better for them to run as independents, running with a Republican philosophy,” he said.
Political scientist Eric Davis said the results would likely come down to the ground game in each of the closely contested districts — and which party can turn out voters.
“If the Democrats have a better field operations and turnout operation, if they can generate 50 to 100 more votes in some of these districts, that might make the difference,” he said.
Editor’s note: This article and map have been updated to include Rutland 5-4 and Franklin 5 as districts where Republicans have left their seats open.
CORRECTIONS: A previous version of this article incorrectly spelled the name of Ben Joseph and Patti Lewis, incorrectly stated that John O’Brien had previously run for House and incorrectly stated that Paul Poirier had left his seat open. He is running as an independent.
