Editor’s note: The Shumlin administration released the revenue report at 1:50 p.m., roughly three hours after this story was published.
[L]awmakers on key money committees were told a few days ago that the preliminary April revenues were $14.7 million below forecasted figures.
The Shumlin administration originally said the numbers had not been finalized and wouldn’t be released until Monday — two days after the legislative session is expected to end.
Justin Johnson, the secretary of the Agency of Administration, released the final figures Thursday afternoon, about three hours after a story was published about a potential delay in the announcement of revenue figures for April.
The total deficit for 2016 is worse than anticipated — $16.44 million, or $1.7 million more than estimated a few days ago.
Most of the shortfall is in personal income tax receipts, which are $18 million below the stateโs revenue forecast for April, the biggest tax month of the year. Personal income taxes are the largest source of revenue for the General Fund budget, accounting for about half of all tax receipts.
Sales and meals and rooms taxes are also down by $5.7 million. Withholding rates are up by $4 million, according to a memo from the Joint Fiscal Office provided to House and Senate leadership and lawmakers on tax and appropriations committees.
Wednesday afternoon Andy Pallito, the commissioner of the Department of Finance and Management, said his office was still reconciling figures and wouldn’t have a chance to finalize the April revenue numbers until the Monday after the session.
Johnson typically releases revenue figures in the first week of each month.
In a statement, Johnson said even though the revenues are below forecast, “the General Fund revenues are almost 2 percent over last fiscal year.”
“We continue to assess the underlying causes for the under performance in the Personal IncomeโPaid Returns, we will be closely monitoring the last two months of the year and carefully evaluating the final two monthโs expenditures to assure that we finish this year with a balanced General Fund that will not require the use of our reserve funds,” Johnson said. “It is too early to know if this will have any impact on FY 2017 โ that question will be addressed with the release of the July revenue estimates.โ
April is the stateโs biggest tax month of the year; it represents the equivalent of the first three months of the year.
Pallito said the difference could be made up in the Medicaid budget.
If lawmakers donโt address the shortfall now, it will be July before they discuss it, and the deficit will likely remain an open question until the budget adjustment process next year.
Legislators say they are more concerned with buttoning up the spending plan for fiscal year 2017 at this point than they are in addressing a deficit in the current year.
Sen. Jane Kitchel, D-Caledonia, says โeverything is fluid,โ and the administration is in the process of clarifying the budget numbers.
โWeโve expressed our desire to have this released as soon as possible,โ Kitchel said.
Kitchel said she did not have any indication that the revenue numbers would be released on Monday. She had anticipated that revenues would come out on Friday.
โWe know what we have is some changes in tax policy and obviously some temporary loss of revenues because of the weather and skiing and so forth, so the issue really is for fiscal year 2016,โ Kitchel said, and the state has a system for accommodating changes in revenue levels.
Kitchel said she anticipates that revenues for fiscal year 2017 will be โsolid.โ
Corporate revenue is up $11.2 million above targets for fiscal year 2016 so far. The estate tax is tracking about $9 million below the annual forecast, and other revenues are down by $6.5 million in the first four months of 2016.
