[S]tate Republicans are trying to figure out what Donald Trump’s Vermont Super Tuesday victory means, and whether the state party should embrace or rebuff Trump who is poised to top their ballot in November.
“I’m very bothered by Donald Trump,” said Rep. Carolyn Branagan, R-Georgia. “I’m disappointed, I’m frightened by him, to tell you the truth.”
Branagan, who publicly endorsed U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio along with 28 other state legislators in late February, said she ended up defecting from the Florida senator after he adopted Trumpian attacks and hurled petty insults in the lead up to Primary day.
“I voted for Bernie Sanders,” Branagan said, adding she was angered and surprised by leaders in the Vermont Republican party who have pledged to support Trump if he becomes the nominee.
Rep. Patti Komline, R-Dorset, also faulted the state party’s refusal to disavow Trump.
“I will publicly oppose Trump if he becomes the nominee,” Komline said. “He uses hatred and fear to fuel hysteria, and his campaign. He’s a threat to all of us.”
Trump’s win in Vermont represented his lowest margin of victory on Super Tuesday. He had just 1,500 more votes than the second-place finisher, Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
And while the margin was close, and a majority of Vermont voters chose other Republicans, there’s a few likely reasons state leaders won’t disavow Trump. The first is that Trump’s name on the top of the ballot could increase turnout in November. Republican primary turnout Tuesday was record-breaking, with roughly 20,000 more Republican voters than the 2008 primary.
In contrast, roughly 20,000 fewer Democrats voted on Tuesday than in 2008, even with hometown hero Bernie Sanders on the ballot.
Concerted party attacks against Trump could backfire and squander a potential edge in turnout for gubernatorial and legislative races.
One legislator said privately that an additional reason the Vermont GOP would not disavow Trump is because it could anger Republican National Committee officials, who could cut off money and resources — like phone databases — to the Green Mountain party.
“Trump did win Vermont, so I don’t know how the Vermont Republican party can walk away from that without alienating more people,” said Sen. Kevin Mullin, R-Rutland. “It would be an insult to those voters if the party didn’t endorse him.”
Mullin, like many legislators VTDigger contacted, said it would be hard to support Trump in a general election, but he didn’t rule it out.
Dave Sunderland, who chairs the Vermont GOP, pointed out that the state party is obligated to cast its delegates in proportion to the votes cast when leaders gather at the national Republican convention this summer.
Sunderland insisted the party is laser focused on state elections, and would not respond to Trump’s recent refusal to disavow support from white supremacist groups or other hateful comments Trump has made about Muslims and people of color.
Very broadly, Sunderland said it’s “good that there’s a wide variety of choices on the Republican side, to hear several points of view.”
No Vermont legislator has endorsed Trump, many instead backed Rubio or Kasich. But few pledged to oppose him as the party’s nominee.
“It will not be an easy decision,” said Rep. Robert Bancroft, R-Westford. “It seems like much of my life has been voting for the lesser of two evils, and it may not change this year.”
A similar dissonance emerged at Thursday’s Republican debate in Detroit, where Kasich, Rubio and Sen. Ted Cruz were intensely critical of Trump, but pledged to support him if he becomes the nominee.
State Republicans — like their national counterparts — acknowledged legitimate gripes by Trump supporters, but said Trump’s message wasn’t truly conservative, just reactionary.
A number of legislators expressed hope that Vermont’s history of moderate politics would deflect any possible damage from having Trump’s name on the top of the ticket.
“I don’t think candidates in Vermont will start using Trump’s rhetoric, because he is out-of-step with centrist Vermont voters,” said Rep. Kurt Wright, R-Burlington. “When the Klu Klux Klan or David Duke is mentioned you don’t hesitate on that answer, you immediately condemn that. That’s what most Vermonters think.”
Rep. William Canfield, R-Fair Haven, said Trump has brought out a silent faction of the Republican party.
“I think his delivery could use some work,” Canfield said. “But he must be saying things that people like to hear, look at the 33 percent in Vermont who voted for him.”
Sen. Dustin Degree expressed dogged optimism that Trump would not be the nominee, and said Kasich or Rubio could have clinched Vermont if they had campaigned in the state more.
He said Trump wouldn’t jeopardize state races, saying “I think Vermonters understand the issues we face as a state government, and they will be able to separate those from what’s going on in Washington.”
But while many Vermont Republicans are cautiously optimistic that a Trump ticket wouldn’t slow their party’s momentum to reclaim the governor’s post, national Republicans are more worried.
A USA Today report Thursday quoted Fred Malek, finance chairman for the Republican Governors Association, who said a Trump nomination could imperil “his party’s chances of picking up Democratic governors’ seats in Missouri, Montana, West Virginia, Vermont and New Hampshire.”
The Vermont Democratic Party is already sharpening attacks for 2016, and Trump’s rhetoric helps them portray the party as out of touch with Vermont moderates.
Conor Casey, executive director of the Vermont Democratic Party, said Trump is a “candidate of nightmares” for Vermont Republicans.
“The Republican party in Vermont has done nothing to disavow themselves from the hateful rhetoric from Trump on the national stage,” Casey said. “Their silence speaks volumes. I have heard a lot of seixsm, racism and xenophobia coming out of Trump’s mouth.”
The two Republican gubernatorial candidates — Bruce Lisman and Phil Scott — declined to comment.
Lisman, who has endorsed Kasich, and Scott, who is a Marco Rubio man, pointed to their endorsements as their current thoughts on the race.
Eric Davis, a retired political science professor from Middlebury College, said a Trump nomination could hurt Scott, who is the current frontrunner, according to a recent Vermont Public Radio Poll.
Scott faced pushback late last year after calling for a halt of the Syrian refugee program, a position taken by Trump. After pressure, Scott backpedaled, and said he did support the refugee program.
Davis said this time, Scott should wholeheartedly reject Trump’s extreme positions, as have other moderate Republican politicians, including Mass. Gov. Charlie Baker.
“Scott has to say something to get over the weight that a Trump candidacy would place on him,” Davis said.
