Editor’s note: This commentary is by Dan Jones, who is a managing partner of Net Zero Vermont Ventures and former chair of the Montpelier Energy Advisory Committee. He lives in Montpelier.
[W]hen my son was quite young, he was often very fearful. To build his self-esteem, he constantly chatted about the magical powers he would soon acquire. By suddenly becoming super-strong or being able to fly, he would overcome all his imagined dangers.
Down deep in our fantasy lives, I suspect that many of us still yearn for magic powers to make our big and little challenges disappear. When faced with huge problems, we usually start with denial. When that doesn’t work, most of us start believing that some silver bullet will turn up to change things.
As our absolute denial of global warming begins to fail, I see many people putting their faith in the magical power of technology to save us from our own folly – a folly ironically brought during the last century, when we put our faith in technologies like the automobile. This faith in technology reminds me of my young son’s assumption that his problems would disappear as soon as his magical powers emerged.
Not a day goes by when I don’t hear of some new invention or development that will solve the problem of climate change. There is the battery that will hang on the wall and power our houses. New clear solar panels will cover our windows. We will all ride in self-driving electric cars on roadways made of solar panels. The truly smitten talk about “zero point” generators that use magnets to create electricity — ethereal distribution systems that, on closer inspection, are the modern equivalent of perpetual motion machines. (You can add your favorite new invention to the list.)
An abiding faith in the power of technology to constantly improve our world seems to be a uniquely American reverence. After all, we built the country with technology, beginning with our cotton mills and railroads, followed by the telegraph, the telephone, the automobile, the refrigerator, antibiotics and, of course, the Internet. I am in no way denying that many good things have come to us as a result of human ingenuity. Our faith in technology is understandable. It is not, however sufficient to meet the current challenges we face as the effects of global warming reach us.
Even with serious conservation, to achieve a sustainable future, we need to increase our renewable electricity production by more than 70 percent just to heat our homes and power our not yet available electric cars.
Our belief in the solutions to global warming with technology is also driven by fear. Pictures of dying polar bears and reports of extinctions affect us, portending a kind of death for us, too. Seeking protection, we put our faith in technical forces that we may dimly understand. What people tend to miss in the total belief in technical solutions was suggested by Einstein: “We can’t solve problems using the same kind of thinking that created the problem in the first place.” We know that global warming and resource depletion is caused by total reliance on technologies powered by fossil fuels. How is it that creating more energy demanding technologies is going to save us?
But belief goes on. A lot of people who know that global warming is real tell me that we must re-embrace nuclear power if we hope to keep our current lifestyle going. Nuclear power is, of course, the ultimate symbol of technical prowess, but it is not foolproof. The meltdowns at Fukushima or Chernobyl were just the tip of the iceberg. No one has come up with a credible 100,000-year waste disposal plan. Billions and billions of taxpayer dollars have subsidized our nuclear industry to date, even as plants leak radioactive waste into the water and the ground. All the wishing and tax subsidies in the world have yet to provide a sustainable nuclear industry.
If we can’t have nuclear power how about a proven technology, some Vermonters argue. They are sure “we can get limitless power from Hydro-Quebec.” Hydropower is a great renewable resource, but I have some bad news. I was at a conference a few weeks ago where one of the senior managers of Hydro-Quebec was speaking. She said the company is already exporting all the power they can. Period. There is no more to be had. Not only that, but it looks like the wealthier states of New York, Massachusetts and Connecticut are about to bid up the price of whatever hydropower is available. So hydropower as a renewable resource will no longer be cheap or, in the long term, even available for Vermont. It will be part of our energy mix, but it won’t save our current lifestyle.
Well then, folks ask, what about windmills and solar panels? Right now, there’s a magical-thinking war between those who believe it’s sensible to develop these renewable resources and those who refuse to have their bucolic views disturbed by the sight of panels in the fields or turbines on the ridgelines. But for people who put their faith in solar and wind, the additional bad news is that the energy from these sources is not at all close to what we’d need to sustain our current lifestyles. Presently only 25 percent of our total energy demands are being met by electricity; mostly coming from Hydro-Quebec, the Seabrook nuclear plant and peak load gas generators.
Frankly, only a small proportion of that electric power is produced renewably. That is not even close to our future needs. Even with serious conservation, to achieve a sustainable future, we need to increase our renewable electricity production by more than 70 percent just to heat our homes and power our not yet available electric cars. The amount of land and ridgeline devoted to solar and wind to meet that goal will be immense. I can only foresee many future battles over electric demands vs. pristine ridge lines.
So what then can we do?
First, we need to start dealing with reality. Hurricane Irene and the polar vortex were just the beginning of our wake-up call. In the future, Vermonters can expect to see more big storms that wash out our roads and put our towns in jeopardy. This means that we need to make some hard choices. I believe that putting more effort into solar and wind energy is a start. But we must also rethink our reliance on our cars and consider recentralizing our small cities to make our lives more efficient without having to rely on automobiles, even electric automobiles.
Next we need to understand that powerful forces wish to preserve their wealth and privilege by insuring that we collectively don’t change our consumption habits. You can see how these forces work right here in the VTDigger commentaries. Go back and look at all the recent pieces about renewable energy and global warming. You will find the same cast of critics who hop on to disparage any real discussion almost as soon as the piece is published. Since these critics play on the fears of change felt by most people, they help reinforcing the level of magical thinking which keeps us from dealing with the climate change crisis growing around us. We don’t have to listen to them.
We Americans do best when we confront a big challenge. We survived Valley Forge, abolished slavery won the war in the Pacific. Doing these things required getting out of our comfort zones and taking on great personal sacrifice. Today, we need to embrace a shared vision of a sustainable future, even if achieving that vision will require personal dislocation and sacrifice. Our challenge is now to imagine such a future for our children and theirs. This won’t be easy, but we can at least begin by having a rational discussion about the real problems that climate change is forcing on us, instead of hiding behind denial and magical thinking.
