[V]ermont Democrats have a big financial advantage over their Republican counterparts, reporting five times as much money in their campaign coffers as Vermont’s GOP, which appears to be struggling to raise cash.
Between federal and state accounts, Democrats have more than $110,000, while the Republicans have around $20,000 in cash on hand as the parties head into the 2016 elections.
“In addition to to the money, I do think we will able to out-organize the Republicans,” said Conor Casey, executive director of the state Democratic party. “If we can harness the energy of the presidential race, we will feel pretty good.”
“We know we are up against a popular, current lieutenant governor,” Casey added. “But I think the more we put him on the record on issues, the more people will see he is similar to conservative national candidates.”
The Vermont Democratic Party reported $63,255 on hand in their federal account in a November filing with the Federal Election Commission, an increase of around $5,000 since October.
The GOP federal filing showed $15,359 on hand at the end of November, $2,000 less than reported by the party in October. The party began the year with more than $45,000, but each month, their surplus has shrunk.
“I don’t worry about the Democrats numbers, I worry about my numbers,” said Debra Ricker, treasurer of the state GOP, when asked about the large funding gap between parties.
“It’s not all about money,” she added, saying recruiting young Republicans and creating enthusiasm were more important.
The Democrats also have a distinct monetary advantage in their state account. The most recent party numbers in the state, filed in June, reported $3,693 on hand for the GOP; the Democrats had $54,326.
The Democrats also have 21 town and county parties in the state, while the Republicans only have ten, according to data from the Secretary of State’s office.
“You may end up deficit spending in an election year,” said Selene Hofer-Shall, a financial compliance officer for the Democrats. “But deficit spending in a non-election year makes me ask ‘Do the Republicans have a plan?’”
The Republicans said they do have a plan, and that a big December fundraiser would boost numbers. Officials would not provide details on how much they raised from fundraisers earlier this fall with Republican presidential hopefuls John Kasich and Rand Paul, where tickets ranged in price from $65 to $2,000.
Ricker said the December event is “going to be really big” and that it will be in Montpelier.
“It will be a celebration of being a Vermont Republican, that’s the theme,” Ricker said. “We are celebrating a pre-victory.”
The little cash on hand is nothing new for the GOP at this stage of the election. Party Chairman Dave Sunderland said the party is actually in better shape than in past years. In October, 2013, for example, the GOP only had $10,000 on hand.
“We are in better financial condition than we expected to be at this time of the year,” he said. “Much better than two years ago.”
While Democrats may rejoice at the numbers, state officials acknowledged the power of the national Republican Governor’s Association, which will likely target the Vermont gubernatorial race. Casey said the Democratic Governor’s Association could help in 2016, but said it was unclear whether it would.
Neither RGA nor DGA officials responded to requests for comment, but a July press release from the Republican State Leadership Committee announced a $40 million budget to target a number of states, including Vermont.
The press release said national GOP operatives “will work to add more Republican members in both Vermont chambers – including ending the Senate Democrats’ supermajority – where they will have a competitive, open gubernatorial race this cycle.”
Political analyst Eric Davis, a retired professor of political science at Middlebury College, said the current money totals would rise in the coming months, and that the totals in the summer, right before the primary, would matter much more.
He said he imagined both the DGA and the RGA sinking cash into the 2016 governor matchup.
“I do expect there will be a fair amount of outside money in this race,” Davis said. “I would not be at all surprised if the RGA and the DGA spend between half a million and a million dollars in the fall, and if the Republican state legislative committee put a couple of hundred thousand dollars in Vermont.”
He said outside money can be effective if it successfully gauges the local issues at stake, and incorporated them into television ads and mailings.
“Outside money can help if it can fund locally generated advertising and activity that is responsive to the constituency,” Davis said. “But that is hard to do because of the ‘no coordination’ requirements between candidates and the outside groups.”
