Editor’s note: This commentary is by Hayden Dublois who lives in Manchester, and is a political commentator and strategist who writes a biweekly op-ed column for the Manchester Journal. He is an economics student at Middlebury College. He was the Bennington County coordinator for Scott Milne’s campaign for governor in 2014.
[W]hile the timing of Gov. Shumlin’s decision not to seek reelection raised some eyebrows, the decision itself was by no means shocking. Shumlin has lost the ability to carry out his political agenda (as represented by his failure to convince the Legislature to sign on to his proposed Medicaid cost-shift reform), and his tenure has been marked by increasingly prevalent administrative failures, most notable being Vermont Health Connect. The political Left has abandoned Shumlin for his proposed budget cuts and failure to follow through on single payer health care, while the Center and the Right have been pushed even further away from him due to a rising tax burden, a budget deficit, and an education finance crisis.
It is no surprise that he barely snatched a victory in the 2014 election, and that his poll numbers have subsequently fallen well below 50 percent. The 2015 unscientific “Doyle poll” puts his approval at 21 percent — a considerable fall from 63 percent according to the same poll from 2012.
Despite the governor’s claim that this decision was “not driven by poll numbers,” the reality is the opposite: poll numbers are exactly the reason that Shumlin is not running in 2016. In fact, the governor’s dwindling approval numbers, failed agenda, and less-than-stellar record would have made him perhaps the weakest nominee for the Democrats in 2016. There is no doubt that Democratic leaders saw these indicators and urged — or, more likely insisted — that Shumlin step aside.
While 2016 is a ways off, the governor’s announcement has undoubtedly had an impact. The names of potential Democratic candidates are being floated in Montpelier’s inner circles. House Speaker Shap Smith, D-Morrisville, is an obvious frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. However, Smith has been at the center of nearly every major action the Legislature has taken over the past several years — and many of these actions have not been particularly popular.
Complicating Smith’s problem is his reputation as a leader who is able to effectively “whip the votes”; some go so far as to claim that Smith has controlled the outcome of nearly every single House vote during his tenure. Yet, the outcome of many of these votes remains unpopular. Nevertheless, his recent campaign-like events, name recognition, and strong standing in the Democratic Party make him a formidable challenger in 2016.
A race between Scott and Welch — or Scott and Smith — would be close, but Scott is certainly the best chance the Republicans have.
Interestingly, Democratic Congressman Peter Welch has also been suggested as a possible contender. His strong popularity and lengthy record make him perhaps the best choice the Democrats have. While Welch’s chief of staff recently said, “It’s likely Congressman Welch will seek reelection to Congress,” Shumlin’s decision opens up the field for both the congressman and for Smith, the latter of whom refused to challenge Shumlin had he run in 2016.
The Democratic Party, however, has to worry about whether or not the Progressives will field a gubernatorial candidate. The Progressives have a tough decision to make: While they are dissatisfied in Shumlin’s recent decisions, one of the Progressive senators or representatives would likely have to sacrifice one of the few seats the Progressives have in the state Legislature in order to run.
On the Republican side, former state senator Randy Brock says he is considering a run, but his low name recognition (outside of Franklin County), his failed 2012 gubernatorial bid, and his inability to appeal to voters outside the reliably GOP population makes him a long-shot in a potential general election race against someone like Welch. Scott Milne is considering a run, but given the vast quantity of his own financial resources that he invested in his 2014 gubernatorial bid, I’m not convinced that he is anxious to run another statewide campaign.
Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Scott is undoubtedly the best candidate for the Republicans in 2016. His most recent approval figures lie near 60 percent — which is the same percentage of the vote he received against his 2014 challenger, Dean Corren. He has the respect of numerous Democratic lawmakers, and the support of the vast majority of Republican legislators. Scott has routinely shown his ability to appeal to not only his core Republican base, but to like-minded moderates and even Democrats. His name recognition and the groundwork he has laid in his successful campaigns for lieutenant governor will further serve to enhance his odds in 2016, if he decides to run. A race between Scott and Welch — or Scott and Smith — would be close, but Scott is certainly the best chance the Republicans have.
Today, the fundamentals are in the Republicans’ favor: the incumbent Democratic governor has an exceptionally low approval rating, and the equally disliked Legislature is solidly controlled by the Democrats. The Republicans have few policy initiatives of their own to defend (since most recent policies originated at the hands of the Democrats), so they can spend their time on the offensive and talking about what they would do differently. However, Shumlin’s decision to bow out is certainly a plus to the Democrats.
First, it gives them a “clean slate” ticket, with no vicious primary battle, party infighting, or weak nominee. Second, Democrats who were hesitant to challenge the incumbent governor now have plenty of time to prepare with the certainty that Shumlin is not running. Lastly, the Democrats won’t have to convince Progressives and independents to accept a Shumlin fourth term; they can try to sell them on a new face in 2016.
Structurally, the Democrats are advantaged in that 1) higher Democratic turnout in a presidential year could give them a boost, 2) most Vermonters still self-identify as Democrats over Republicans, and 3) they have a greater fundraising and activist base in Vermont.
When you combine the Democrats’ structural edge and the boost given by Shumlin’s decision not to run, and balance these factors against the fundamental-driven advantages given to the Republicans, 2016 could turn out to be an awfully close race. In fact, 2016 is shaping up to be the type of gubernatorial race where the particular candidates could matter a whole lot.
