Gov. Peter Shumlin is hitting the airwaves with feel good film clips of Vermonters talking about his accomplishments. He spent $235,000 in September, mostly on advertising, and he has raised $100,000 over the same period from unions, businesses and wealthy individuals. So far the governor has raised a total of nearly $700,000 this election cycle and still has more than $1 million in his war chest, most of which is carryforward from the last election.
Scott Milne, the Republican candidate for governor, made a solid showing this reporting period with about $80,000 over the past few weeks, with his son Keith Milne contributing $9,500 to the effort.
Milne’s fundraising, however, is far behind Shumlin’s and he is still not in a position to support robust campaign effort with television ads, staff and mailings. All told, Milne has raised about $137,000 total for his campaign and has about $40,000 on hand. In a typical year, competitive candidates spend between $50,000 to $70,000 a week, according to Eric Davis, a retired political science professor from Middlebury College.
Dan Feliciano, the libertarian candidate, only raised about $3,500 this period, and has spent about $25,000, so far.
Lt. Gov. Phil Scott, a Republican, caught up with Dean Corren, the Progressive/Democratic candidate, in this reporting cycle. Scott has now raised $200,000 — and is now evenly matched with Corren who qualifies for $200,000 under the public finance law. But the two candidates are spending their money quite differently. Scott is getting his message out on television; Corren is going for mailers and bus ads.
Davis says Milne needs to run television ads because voters don’t know who he is.
Free, earned media, however, has also been an issue. Milne hasn’t held press conferences and events that would generate news coverage. In general, Vermonters aren’t hearing his voice on air and seeing his face on television and in newspaper photos because Milne just isn’t getting out there, Davis says. “I don’t think you’ll hear much from Scott Milne until the debates,” he said.
Shumlin ads meanwhile focus on his accomplishments — the Tropical Storm Irene recovery effort, raising the minimum wage, aid to small businesses and college affordability programs.
“What strikes me as interesting about them is they focus on the past,” Davis said. “These ads don’t say re-elect me so I can do single payer health care or work toward more renewable energy. The ads don’t talk about plans for the future.”
In light of the most recent filings, Davis has revised his gubernatorial race prediction for Nov. 4. He says Shumlin will likely get more than 50 percent of the vote, perhaps even 55 percent, and Milne will be under 40 percent. Feliciano could get 3 percent to 5 percent of ballots cast, Davis said. Previously, he has said Feliciano’s piece of the wedge would be 10 percent.
The lieutenant governor’s race is competitive, but Davis still puts Scott ahead of Corren by about 10 points.
If Scott wants to run for governor next election cycle, he must beat Corren by at least that amount in order to be considered a viable candidate, Davis says. If Corren, a Progressive who is also running on the Democratic ticket, can bring Scott’s victory margin down into the single digits, that would be a successful outcome for the Democratic Party, he says. “They want to soften up Phil Scott and put him in a weaker position should he run for governor in the future,” Davis said.
Corren was not included in the Democratic Party’s fundraising flier that went out this week. Because he is using public financing he must pay for any in-kind contributions like fliers and it is difficult to place a value on mailings.
