Editor’s note: George Plumb is a longtime volunteer environmental and social justice activist and the executive director of Vermonters for Sustainable Population. He recently initiated and oversaw the development of the report, “What is an Optimal/Sustainable Population for Vermont?”
Is the human species now facing the probability of near-term human extinction? Now, before your eyes glaze over and you move on to the next article, please give this a careful read and look at the supporting facts that say yes.
All other plant and animal species are now facing the “Sixth Great Extinction.” Such an extinction has not happened in 300 million years but it is now projected that due to overpopulation of homo sapiens, by the end of this century an estimated 50 percent of all plant and animal species on this earth will have gone extinct. The human species is part of the “interdependent web of existence of which we are all a part” and to think that we are not a part of the ecosystems of the Earth and the disappearance of other species will have no impact on us is very narrow thinking indeed.
Global warming is happening much faster than scientists had originally predicted due to both carbon dioxide and methane hydrate emissions. This past August was the warmest since records began in 1881, according to new data released by NASA. The latest readings continue a series of record- or near record-breaking months. For the first time in thousands of years, warm water is flowing into the Arctic Ocean. Warm water from the deep ocean is showing up on surface images. There is no way to put this into the context of “normal.” Historic temperatures have kept the Arctic frozen on an even keel for thousands of years. Even if there was a “natural cycle,” it has been completely overridden by the astonishing amount of pollution that is going into the atmosphere.
Scientists had predicted in the mid 1800s that adding carbon dioxide to the atmosphere would create a warmer planet. Three hundred fifty parts per million was estimated as early as the 1990s as the maximum the Earth’s atmosphere could absorb without resulting in severe global warming impacts. We have now reached 400 ppm and it is growing by 2 ppm per year instead of going down. At the current rate of emission, it will take less than 30 years to lock in a 550 ppm CO2 equivalent value – enough to melt all the ice on Earth and raise temperatures by between 5 and 6 degrees Celsius long term. This massive blow would be more than enough to trigger a hothouse extinction event – one that could well rival or exceed the Permian (also known as “the great dying”) in its ferocity due to the very rapid pace of the human heat accumulation.
Positive feedback loops, of which there are some 20, are going to accelerate and worsen global warming. Two of the most significant are that as the Arctic ice melts it no longer reflects the sun back into space but instead is absorbed into the oceans. At the same time, methane, which has even greater impact than carbon dioxide, is being released in ever greater quantities because it is no longer locked under the ice or frozen tundra. Erupting flumes of methane gas are increasing in quantity and size in the very northern part of our Earth.
Oxygen levels are dropping and ocean waters are acidifying at the fastest rate in at least 300 million years when the greatest marine extinction in Earth’s history took place, according to The State of the Ocean Report 2013, written by an international panel of marine scientists. Ocean levels are also rising, which will flood our coastal areas including cities. Oceans have been a major source of our food for centuries but will no longer be as sea life dies off.
And we are already seeing firsthand severe droughts, wildfires and extreme weather events. It is estimated that by the end of this century much of the Earth will be uninhabitable for all plant and animal species.
Climate change also exacerbates the spread of disease including Ebola and Lyme. The Ebola epidemic has no real restraints to keep it from becoming a global pandemic. Overpopulation, inequity, peak oil, and disturbed natural environment have converged with the problem of Ebola to set up the conditions for a pandemic.
Add to climate change the potential disaster that the hundreds of aging nuclear power plants face as more earthquakes, electrical grid breakdowns, and other accidents gets only worse. Fukishima is a prime example of how serious this can be. Strontium, cesium and plutonium are the real source of potential long-term problems for humans as they can cause cell damage over many years, especially if they get into the food chain as may be happening at the moment to people in Japan and to fish in the Pacific. Unfortunately these nuclear plants are controlled by corporate interests, in conspiracy with our governments, and proper data is not being released to the public. In fact the NRC closed down the monitoring stations on the West Coast immediately after Fukisima happened! The rates of cancer and impacts on DNA are now increasing.
No matter what the purpose, we need to think about every single gallon of gasoline, diesel and heating oil that we directly or indirectly use and how we personally can eliminate its use or at least greatly reduce it.
Finally, we have peak oil. We have a temporary extension due to fracking, shale and tar sands extraction but that is very limited and in not too many more years our economy is going to collapse because of the unavailability of cheap oil upon which our goods and services totally depend. This will result in tremendous human suffering and, of course, wars for the limited supplies which will kill millions of people.
Should we be optimistic and say that somehow things will work out? Absolutely not as that is just naïve thinking. Should we be hopeful that perhaps we can act fast enough to make the changes we need and through massive public action such as the People’s Climate March get our governments to do what they have failed to do because of corporate control? Definitely.
I took part in the People’s Climate March in New York City on Sept. 21. I was certainly impressed by the 400,000 or so people of all ages and backgrounds and their passion for dealing with climate change. However, what struck me the most was riding out of the city on a bus which I had never done before. It took us two hours just to get out of the city and then a couple of more hours to reach New Haven. All along the way was massive development and tremendous traffic congestion with probably hundreds of thousands of trucks, buses and cars. All of it, of course, entirely dependent on fossil fuels. As a march participant I then fully realized that the march to encourage governments around the world to take action on climate change is only part of the story and probably only a small part at that.
What we really need to do is for each one of us individually to stop being so addicted to fossil fuels. In addition to the usual stuff of working towards renewable energy, which isn’t happening nearly as fast as it needs to, much more importantly we need to dramatically change our individual lifestyles. We need to stop driving all over the U.S. even if it is a fuel-efficient car. We need to stop flying for pleasure and going on cruises. We need to stop mowing multi-acre lawns. We need to grow more food and shop more locally so that transportation of goods is reduced. No matter what the purpose, we need to think about every single gallon of gasoline, diesel and heating oil that we directly or indirectly use and how we personally can eliminate its use or at least greatly reduce it. Only if and when we as individuals start acting morally responsibly towards reducing greenhouse gas emissions will we have any hope for our own generation never mind future generations.
But most importantly we need to accept the fact that near-term human extinction is a real possibility and that the best way to address this is to build supporting communities that can help us not only with the grieving and suffering but also to find joy and pleasure in the here and now through being in the natural environment, enjoying all of the arts, celebrating each other’s lives, acknowledging and apologizing for the mess we are leaving future generations, all while still being grateful for the lives that we now have.
For more information about the probable near-term human extinction I encourage you to go to the website of www.carolyn.baker.net and subscribe to her daily blog and listen to her weekly radio program called “The Lifeboat Hour,” which is aired Sunday evenings on www.prn.fm.
For information on radiation and the dangers of nuclear plants go to www.radcast.org.
And there is a great support group out there with some 2,700 friends, several of whom are Vermonters, and this can be joined by requesting so through
https://www.facebook.com/groups/NTHESupportGroup.
Author’s note: In the interest of time and space I did not add all of the sources here but will be happy to do so upon request. I assure you they are out there.
