Vermont’s unemployment rate held steady at 3.3 percent in May, according to the latest monthly report from the Department of Labor. It remains the second-lowest unemployment rate in the nation, after North Dakota.
Despite staff reductions at several companies, Labor Commissioner Annie Noonan noted in the release, “(t)he flip side has been increased hiring by some of Vermont’s large employers such as GMCR/Keurig, Dealer.com and Cabot Cheese.”
The statewide unemployment rate — which is a statewide average calculated with a variety of factors — is a full percentage point lower than it was a year before.
But, the the civilian labor force is lower, too. The pool of eligible workers grew by about 250 people between April and May, but is about 550 people smaller than May 2013.
The Hartford area boasts the state’s lowest unemployment rate at 2.2 percent, while the Newport area remains the highest at 4.4 percent.
Although Newport’s unemployment rate is higher than all other labor market areas in the state, the numbers show it’s fallen significantly. In May of last year, the rate was 5.7 percent. In April of this year, it was 6.0 percent.
Some of that might be attributed to statistical quirks and seasonal volatility, said Mat Barewicz, economic and labor market information chief at DOL. But some of the uptick could be real.
“Maybe seasonal businesses have ironed out less seasonal business plans,” Barewicz said. And it’s possible employers have initiated new hires, or new employers have entered the scene.
But, Barewicz cautioned, data estimates on employment numbers in the state’s labor market areas are based on people who live there — not on employers based there. Some of the roughly 150 people in the Newport area who appear to have found work could be commuting, he said.
Government employment appears to have experienced a notable dip in May, according to the numbers. But here again, statistics without context can be misleading.
Barewicz expects much of the 2.9 percent (1,700 jobs) drop in government work in May is an anomaly within the model that generates unemployment estimates. It hasn’t caught up yet with a trend of colleges and universities closing their school years earlier than they once did.
He said the department is working with federal partners to update the model for greater accuracy in the long term. In the meantime, there could be “hiccups” in the data they produce.
“We expect fully that June (government employment) numbers will spike back up,” Barewicz said.
He noted that an increase in construction employment may be meaningful. Seasonally adjusted, the sector gained 3.6 percent (500 jobs) in May.
Professional and business services also grew, by 1.1 percent (300 jobs).
The unemployment rate used by state and federal officials combines household surveys with employer reports and other factors to produce an estimates of how many civilian workers are unemployed. The figure does not include discouraged or underemployed workers.
The more inclusive figure, known as the U-6 unemployment rate, is estimated quarterly. As of the second quarter of 2013 through first quarter of 2014, Vermont’s U-6 unemployment rate was 9.1 percent.
