Isn’t Vermont politics boring?
A governor with a million-dollar campaign treasury, no opponent so far, and considered unbeatable. Five more statewide elected incumbents – four Democrats and a Republican – also apparently coasting to re-election (and the “apparently” is … um, apparently excessive journalistic caution, advisable only because of the “anything can happen” rule), huge Democratic majorities in both legislative houses that might become a little less huge but not much less dominant. A relatively prosperous, educated body politic which has its gripes, but shows few signs of massive dissatisfaction.
Worse, for those who follow politics as a source of entertainment, not only does Vermont politics offer no scandals worthy of the name, the state’s politicians refrain from the risible absurdities so common elsewhere. Where is the Vermont pol claiming that rape isn’t all that bad or arguing that the kids ought to be taught creationism?
So, at least, it seems, and great a lyricist as he was, W.S. Gilbert misled the world when he pointed out that “things are seldom what they seem.” (Not that he really meant it; remember, that was Buttercup singing to the captain of the HMS Pinafore, the guy she was trying to hornswoggle.) In the real world, things are usually what they seem.
But Buttercup may have been on the money when it comes to Vermont politics in 2014. Beneath the surface, the situation is substantially more complicated and less boring. The complications do not seem to threaten Gov. Peter Shumlin’s likely re-election in November, and even less the return to their offices of the incumbent lieutenant governor, secretary of state, attorney general, treasurer or auditor.
But nether should they be ignored. If nothing else, they illustrate the potential vulnerability of the established powers. Every dominant political faction eventually becomes sclerotic, apathetic and resistant to change. There is scant evidence that this has happened to the well-financed, well-run Vermont Democratic Party. But there are signs that it could, opening opportunities for the moribund Republicans.
To begin with, the Republicans are not as moribund as they were a year or so ago. The state party now has enough money to have paid for a poll, taken last month by the OnMessage polling firm. Wes Anderson of OnMessage’s Maryland office confirmed that the Vermont GOP had commissioned the poll, and said he would be happy to report its results as soon as he got the OK from his customer.
That OK will not be forthcoming.
“I’m not going to tell you anything about my poll,” said Republican State Chairman David Sunderland, who added that GOP leaders were “reviewing the data internally,” and might make some of it public later.
A Republican source who had seen the poll reported (on condition of not being identified) that one of its findings was that Shumlin had a 49 percent job approval rating, indicating he might be vulnerable after all.
Sunderland would neither confirm nor deny that finding. He did say that from a Republican standpoint, “the results aren’t bad at all.”
What lends some credence to this source’s report (and eases journalistic discomfort about using unconfirmed information from an anonymous source) is that Democratic sources – equally determined to remain unidentified – did not argue about the 49 percent approval rating.
“Governors have to govern,” said one of them, one who may well have seen polling done by the Shumlin campaign. “When you govern, some people don’t like what you do.”
So whether or not that Republican source is right about that Republican poll, it’s reasonable to conclude that Shumlin’s approval rating is somewhere around 50 percent. The poll was taken in mid-March, before the governor helped settle the Burlington bus strike, which no doubt bumped his rating up a bit, at least for a while.
Still, an incumbent whose approval rating hovers around 50 percent is not usually considered unbeatable.
It was not a Republican, but a savvy, experienced Statehouse observer who is by and large a Shumlin fan, who said the other day that “this governor is politically weak,” and is such a heavy favorite largely because he lacks opposition.
He may be about to get some opposition. Rep. Heidi Scheuermann of Stowe has said she is considering the race, and around the Statehouse last week, both Democrats and Republicans were assuming that she would do so.
Scheuermann herself was less categorical.
“I am doing my due diligence, and will let everybody know of my decision as soon as I have one,” she said, acknowledging that she would have to decide “relatively quickly.”
If that Republican source who has seen the poll is reporting it accurately (and if he/she is not, remember this is just political gossip; no one is being accused of making off with the petty cash) Scheuermann was not among the survey’s list of proposed Republican candidates in the survey. Scheuermann, who said she had not seen any of the poll results, added that she also understood that her name was not included when Republican voters were asked their preferences for governor.
Instead, said the GOP source, the poll asked about former Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, present Lt. Gov. Phil Scott, former Sen. Randy Brock, who lost to Shumlin in 2012, and perhaps one or two others.
Scheuermann would probably be a stronger candidate than any of them, except perhaps Scott, who keeps insisting he plans to run for re-election. She’s 43, vigorous, socially moderate but fiscally conservative, well-liked and respected among her peers. And as a woman, she could diminish that “gender gap” that has hurt Republican candidates for decades.
But she is little-known outside of Stowe, and untested on a larger political stage. She would have to give up her House seat to run for governor, a race she would probably lose. Still, if she amassed a respectable 42 percent or 43 percent of the vote, she would be well-positioned to try again in 2016.
Besides, a very adept candidate and a very capable political operation (though there’s scant evidence right now that Scheuermann and the Vermont GOP meet those descriptions) might do something to alter that business about the electorate showing few signs of massive dissatisfaction.
Two issues provide this opportunity: health care and property taxes.
Shumlin continues to refuse to indicate how he would pay for his ambitious universal health care plan. Not only is he not being transparent, he displays no regret about not being transparent. And even though most Vermonters appear to favor health care for all, most of them have health care now. The governor proposes shaking up an existing system, already somewhat shaken up by the federal Affordable Care Act. Shaking up existing systems is always politically risky. As that veteran political observer who proclaimed the governor a “weak candidate,” noted, Shumlin is trying to do “big things,” none bigger than his health care plan. In the abstract, voters admire officeholders who try to do big things. In reality, they are wary of change.
And Vermont voters are now weary of rising property taxes, as shown by all those school budget defeats last month. As befits a Stowe representative, Scheuermann has always opposed the current school tax system. She and Rep. Patty Komline of Dorset engineered a quixotic effort to repeal it last week. It lost, but it got some publicity.
Shumlin is an not just an extraordinarily skilled politician, he is adept at governing, as he showed by helping settle the bus strike (leaving Mayor Miro Weinberger looking like a guy standing around with a mouthful of teeth). And Shumlin, too, wants to do something about school costs and property taxes.
It isn’t as though the poll results and the emergence of a promising Republican candidate mean November’s results are likely to be a surprise. But it could be that Vermont politics are not as boring as they seem.
