Editor’s note: This op-ed is by John Sales of Barre.
In the three years of Vermont’s proposed wind moratorium, production in North Dakota’s Bakken fracked shale well will decline 80 percent (an average 40 percent decline per year).
The main thing preventing U.S. energy shortfall, fracked shale, is not going well: Huge rig numbers, little need for additional exploration, inherent fast decline in the wells, strong demand, and artificially low pricing promote waste and argue for depletion within 20 years. With the only energy source large enough to convert to renewables gone, energy will go critical, and timing is critical. An all-out effort with massive fees on fossil fuels and rebates on renewables is imperative.
New Bakken shale wells produce less than the first drilled, and are barely economical. Those in poorer shale basins and marginal areas are not economical — less than 10 percent of Eagleford’s wells recoup drilling expenses. With better alternatives, this would shut rigs down, but alternatives are few. Escalating prices will keep them drilling and massive over-fracking can keep them producing dregs. Black market prices will sink the economy. A shift to tar sand oil may tank the environment, and tar sand oil will remain economical only with rising prices.
Before fracked shale, U.S. conventional oil production was half of demand and declining. With both fracked shale and conventional oil production declining, America will be almost without domestic production in 20 years. Meanwhile, China is locking in Middle East conventional production, that will last decades longer than fracked shale’s.
Peak oil is an 800-pound gorilla, about to get out of its cage — when lower 48 conventional oil peaked in 1970 there were options elsewhere, not now.
The petroleum industry and government are telling us what we want to hear, not what we need to hear. We drilled 4,200 Bakken wells in six years — of course production increased a 100 fold — that’s just hype. Peak oil is an 800-pound gorilla, about to get out of its cage — when lower 48 conventional oil peaked in 1970 there were options elsewhere, not now. Including Middle East wars and artificially low gas prices promoting waste, petroleum is subsidized millions to one over renewables.
Moratorium advocates don’t grasp the alternative. When fracked shale declines, massive over-fracking will ruin groundwater. Escalating oil prices will denude our forests, coal will belch — massive global warming. Renewables are rosy by comparison — even now electric vehicles on renewable power, can drive for a fraction of the cost of gas guzzlers. Converting to renewables with energy from renewables would be like standing in a bucket and trying to lift it. Only excess oil can do it — the window’s closing, and a moratorium isn’t common sense. If we take this warning seriously, go for massive renewables immediately and I am wrong, our kids will have energy security. If we continue with business as usual, but I’m right, our kids will be in energy hell.
