Attorney General Bill Sorrell’s campaign got some welcome news today when a new poll released by Castleton Polling Institute gave Sorrell a 20-point lead over challenger TJ Donovan. Sorrell was supported by 44 percent of those polled; Donovan got backing from 24 percent of those surveyed.
Thirty-one percent of Vermonters polled said they were still undecided in the race.
Eric Davis, a retired professor of political science at Middlebury, says he thinks the poll is flawed. While he couldn’t comment on the public opinion of various candidates, he says another number tipped him off to the idea that the new results were no good.
Davis points back to the 2010 primary, when a five-way race for the Democratic nomination for governor brought out nearly 100,000 voters. That was an especially high turnout for a primary, Davis says, and it was only about 24 percent of registered voters at the time.
The recent poll by Castleton, however, suggests even higher numbers, despite the fact that the Democratic primary for attorney general is the only major statewide race on the ballots for Aug. 28. It says 50 percent of surveyed Vermonters classified themselves as “very likely” to vote in the primary.
“I have very, very serious doubts about the validity of a poll that says it has that many people who are likely to vote in a primary,” Davis said. “I think this Castleton survey over-reports likely voting in the primary by three, perhaps as many as four times.”
So what should the AG candidates glean from the survey which, according to Davis, used a flawed sample (477 voters were polled)?
“I would say this to both candidates: Don’t pay attention to this poll and keep working until next Tuesday,” Davis said.
Sorrell wasn’t the only incumbent atop the new poll’s results. In fact, in every race — for U.S. president, Vermont governor and Vermont attorney general — the incumbent was ahead by a fair margin.
Barack Obama topped Mitt Romney among the 477 voters polled 62 percent to 25 percent. Peter Shumlin is ahead of Randy Brock by a similar margin, 60 percent to 26 percent. Other voters said “neither” or “undecided.”
Sorrell was pleased with the poll’s numbers.
“I’d much rather be in the mid-40s than the mid-20s,” he said. “… It’s not going to change anything in terms of our efforts in the last six days.”
Donovan, despite being 20 points behind, wasn’t put off by the results.
“I feel good about it. Six days to go and a third of the electorate are still undecided about the incumbent,” Donovan said.
“We’re going to keep working, we’re going to be tireless, we’re going to make history,” he said.
While Sorrell still holds a firm lead, his edge over Donovan has slipped since May, when a WCAX/WDEV-sponsored poll gave him 49.3 percent of the vote. Donovan’s numbers have held firm since then, when he had 23.2 percent.
The sample of the new poll is smaller than the May poll, which surveyed 607 Vermonters. Only 122 of the voters polled about the AG race identified as Democrats, and 77 as independents. However, due to Vermont’s open primaries, anyone can vote in a primary, not just the party faithful.
