Vermont blogger William Boardman criticized Randy Brock for a fundraising pitch distributed by email last Friday, which Boardman described as based on a “highly selective sample.”
In an email sent Friday afternoon seeking donations for a $40,000 fundraising target, Brock writes:
“…If we want to see Vermont be the state that we all dream it can be, we should follow the lead of what other successful states have done and elect a Republican governor.
Don’t take my word for it; a recent study showed that of the 17 states that elected Republican governors in 2010, every single one has reduced its unemployment rate.”
Boardman’s analysis traces back Brock’s claim to a post on the website of late tea party activist Andrew Breitbart , which in turn refers to a fuller analysis of governors and employment rates on Examiner.com.
But the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Boardman points out, shows that all states with the exception of New York have shown decreasing unemployment rates since 2010, regardless of whether they’re led by a Democratic or Republican governor.
Further analysis of BLS data shows that when Vermont Republican Gov. Jim Douglas was elected in November 2008 at the beginning of the recession, Vermont’s unemployment rate stood at 5.2 percent. When Shumlin was elected two years later, the rate stood at 6.2 percent, an increase of 1 percent over Douglas’ term. Vermont’s unemployment rate currently stands at 4.6 percent.
Brock said that his figures were based on official BLS statistics, not on the online articles which Boardman cites, and that this particular fact had been “well documented and well researched,” and mentioned in a variety of nonpartisan online articles.
Brock responded: “Bear in mind, I’m not writing a critique of Bureau of Labor Statistics information, but a fundraising pitch, for crying out loud!…and I’m stating a fact, and that’s a fact.”
He argued that he had provided enough context, and that figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics would also prove that unemployment rates declined more slowly on average in Democratic-led states.
In an email to Paul Heintz, a reporter for Seven Days, Darcie Johnston, Brock’s campaign manager, said the information came from Examiner.com.
As for the point that Vermont’s unemployment rate is lower than all Republican states except North Dakota, Brock refused to say whether that was relevant, instead citing his own observation that about half of the Vermonters he’d encountered said they know someone who was unemployed or who had left Vermont in search of a job.
Three states which Brock mentioned as examples of newly Republican-led states, Michigan, Florida, and Ohio, have unemployment rates of 8.5 percent, 8.6 percent, and 7.3 percent, ranking 39th, 40th, and 24th for state unemployment respectively. Michigan, Florida, and Ohio, however, are also states that have decreased unemployment rapidly, among the top six fastest states to do so in the nation.
The Shumlin campaign could not be reached for comment. In a press conference last week, however, Shumlin declined to put a figure to the number of jobs his administration had created, saying that there was a lack of hard data.
“It’s straight arithmetic, that’s all,” Brock said, of his statement. Laughing slightly, he repeated: “It’s a fundraising letter for crying out loud: We’re not writing the Bureau of Labor Statistics report. That’s not the point.”
He couldn’t say for sure whether the pitch had succeeded in drawing funds.
UPDATE: Heintz forwarded us an email from Johnston after this story was posted. In the email, Darcie Johnston said the information for the fundraising appeal came from Examiner.com.
