Eli Sherman contributed to this report.
Vermont’s Grand Old Party is patiently waiting for candidates to do the dance – the biannual, who-will-run-for-what tango. For the moment, however, the music has stopped.
Unless there is an unanticipated filing that slips in among the campaign finance statements submitted for the July 15 deadline, the GOP candidates, for the moment, are in wallflower wait-and-see mode.
That’s because until several key players make their intentions known, everyone else is in a holding pattern. The Vermont GOP doesn’t want to see a primary in any statewide race, and right now, the key candidates are temporarily stacked up for the big jobs — governor and U.S. Senate. The potential contenders for governor, for example, are, in order: Former Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, who lost in the last go-round; state auditor Tom Salmon; and state Sen. Randy Brock, R-Franklin-Grand Isle. Salmon would only run for governor if Dubie stepped out and Brock has all but decided against a gubernatorial race, sources say; likewise Barre Mayor Tom Lauzon would likely only campaign against the formidable U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., if Salmon drops his bid. Republican Lt. Gov. Phil Scott is staying put.
Dubie, who lost by about 7,000 votes to now-Gov. Peter Shumlin in 2010, is “seriously thinking” about rejoining Shumlin in a race for the governorship. The former lieutenant governor told Charlie & Ernie on Talk 620 he won’t make an official announcement until Labor Day. Dubie declined to discuss his plans when VTDigger.org reached him for comment. “I’m not able to talk politically right now,” he said.
A prominent member of the Vermont GOP said Dubie is considering a second run at the governorship because the last election was very close and “a lot of the important points and things he felt passionately about he feels have yet to be addressed by current governor.” Dubie, according to this source, says Shumlin has taken the state in a fiscally irresponsible direction, particularly in the realm of health care reform. Party stalwarts complain that Shumlin has done very little about jobs and the local economy. “He (Dubie) feels he could unseat the current governor,” the source said.
In an interview, Dubie said: “I’m not able to talk politically right now.”
After the GOP’s difficult defeats in the last go-round, party stalwarts are gearing up for an early campaign to start for Election Day 2012.
Pat McDonald, chair of the Vermont GOP, is pushing candidates to make decisions by the end of the month. McDonald reasons that an early start will help campaigners raise money and galvanize the base.
“When you have those names associated with positions, it helps to get the momentum going and grassroots efforts solidified,” McDonald said.
One of the contenders, Barre Mayor Thom Lauzon, sidestepped questions about a gubernatorial run in an interview last week – he’s apparently more interested in taking on the apparently invincible Sen. Bernie Sanders.
“People say (Sanders) can’t be beat and I think he can. I absolutely think he can,” Lauzon said.
The Barre accountant says he’s unimpressed with the way the iconoclastic senator from Burlington foments on issues, especially proposed changes to the tax code. Lauzon favors higher taxes for wealthy Americans, too, but he thinks a less antagonistic approach would be more productive.
“He’s got this way of being divisive,” Lauzon said. “I don’t know, it just seems that Bernie just so embitters people. He just creates this class warfare, and you know I just don’t like it.”
Lauzon said Reince Prince, the chair of the Republican National Committee, encouraged him to challenge Sanders. Whether Lauzon, however, would be the senatorial standard-bearer for the Vermont GOP is anyone’s guess – especially since state auditor Salmon has been publicly “exploring” the very same notion for months (but without the express imprimatur of party leaders).
Salmon says he’s still in a “testing the waters phase.”
“I’ve raised an insignificant amount of money and haven’t declared,” Salmon said. As for the Republic lineup, he says, “We have to be strategic not our show cards until September, but somebody may jump out sooner and change the deck. …. We need to put team goals ahead of individual goals.”
In a meeting held at the end of May, the Vermont GOP met with pols who were considering a run for statewide or federal office in the next election: Thom Lauzon, Phil Scott, Tom Salmon, Randy Brock, Mark Snelling and Brian Dubie (who phoned in).
According to McDonald, they talked generally about races at the meeting but did not get into any specifics. McDonald said it could be the end of the month – long after the campaign finance reports are due on July 15 – before official declarations are made.
“Thom is potentially running for something but really there’s nothing definite yet,” MacDonald said. “We have a strong bench of strong viable candidates. We are hoping it all gels together by the end of July.”
The next step for potential candidates is to create an exploratory committee to take the pulse of voters and financial supporters, according to McDonald.
Lauzon, who has been swamped with flood-related cleanup issues in Barre, said: “I’m no closer to making a decision of whether I’ll run or not.”
