UPDATE: Shumlin is up by 192 votes, with all municipalities reporting. Racine will decide whether to call a recount once the certified vote from the Vermont Secretary of State has been issued, which is likely to be made available on Friday or Saturday.
Shumlin wins for now, with a 121 vote margin, but the count isn’t over: 29 of the state’s smallest municipalities have yet to turn in ballot tallies.
No one had this one nailed. A week ago, the state’s political analysts thought the Democratic primary would be too close for comfort, but the razor thin margin last night stunned candidates, their supporters and the political cognoscenti.
“I knew it would be close, but I didn’t think it would be this close,” said Eric Davis, professor emeritus of political science from Middlebury College.
Who would have thought the top three vote-getters – Shumlin, Racine and Markowitz, in that order – would be split top to bottom by 921 votes? Or that the top two, Shumlin and Racine would end last night with Shumlin ahead by 121 votes? And finally, with 29 towns still not reporting results to the Associated Press, who knows who the winner will really be? (Town clerks are expected to finish the tallies in the morning. As Racine quipped last night, “Sometimes their loyalty is more to their pillows than to getting their final results in.”)
And how will the extremely close totals impact the Democrats’ unity rally in Burlington today? Will the also-ran candidates be willing to back a winner, in spite of the specter of a recount?
As has been the case throughout this race, there are still more questions than answers, and as of last night (or rather early this a.m.), none of the candidates had thrown down the recount gauntlet. At this point, it appears that a recount could be called because all three top vote-getters are well within the less than 2 percent threshold.
Racine and Markowitz were each lagging by less than 2 percent in the final numbers made available last night. But Davis doesn’t expect the candidates to call for a recount because it could take two weeks to perform, and it would be a distraction from the General Election in November. “The energy would go into a recount,” Davis said, “instead of making a case against Brian Dubie.” He thinks a recount is unlikely unless Racine or Shumlin wins by a handful of votes. “It would have to be less than 100 votes,” Davis said.
As of 1:30 a.m., Shumlin had 16,960 votes (25 percent); Racine 16,839 (25 percent); and Markowitz, 16,039 (24 percent). Dunne picked up 14,165 votes (21 percent) and Bartlett 3,507 (5 percent). Markowitz, who gathered her troops at Union Station, gave a speech at about 10:45 p.m. (in time for the late night TV news), thanking supporters. “Team Shumlin” assembled at Nectar’s, a downtown Burlington bar, and began to disperse before midnight. Shumlin sent out a message acknowledging the efforts of his cadre of volunteers — “it was a long night for ‘Team Shumlin’” — and told supporters to stay tuned for late morning Tweets. Of the three neck and neck finishers, Racine was the holdout – his party at the Hilton Hotel ordered pizza at about 1:30 a.m. and looked prepared to doss down on the carpeted floor of the ballroom if necessary. By 2 a.m. all twittering, blogging, frantic cell phone dialing and TV analysis had ceased.
Prof. Eric Davis said the Democratic turnout was more than 65,000, or roughly 20 percent – about what he originally predicted. He said the Republican turnout was likely about 20,000, bringing the total to about 20 percent of the state’s 445,000 registered voters.
The regional vote spreads are an indication of how each candidate campaigned, Davis said. Dunne had a strong showing in Windsor County, his home district, and Shumlin was backed by Windham County, and Markowitz had uneven results – she came away with about 30 percent of the vote in Franklin County, but her tally fell below Bartlett in the Lamoille County race, according to the professor.
“If Doug Racine doesn’t win it, it will be because Racine didn’t come out of Chittenden County with comparable numbers like Dunne and Shumlin did in their home counties,” Davis said.
On the down ticket front, Republican Phil Scott beat out Mark Snelling in the lieutenant governor’s race; Democratic Rep. Steve Howard beat Rep. Chris Bray; and a Douglas administration official Jason Gibbs gave Chris Roy a run. Jim Condos won against Charles Merriman. Doug Hoffer handily won over Ed Flanagan in the Democratic race for State Auditor.
The towns that haven’t had their vote counts confirmed by the Associated Press include: Alburg, Brighton, Brookfield, Burke, Cabot, Canaan, Dover, East Haven, Enosburg, Granville, Guildhall, Hancock, Lemington, Middlesex, New Haven, Newfane, Pawlet, Plymouth, Reading, Rochester, Shaftsbury, St. Albans City, St. Albans Town, Tunbridge, Wells, Westfield, Weston, Whiting and Williamstown.
