Vermont enjoys one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation, but in some pockets of the state, high percentages of men of prime working age are out of a job.
Parts of Orleans County, as well as sections of Windsor and Caledonia counties and even downtown Burlington, have high percentages of men age 25 to 54 who are not working, according to census data compiled by The New York Times. An interactive national map that The Times published online earlier this month shows by county and census tract the percentage of men in this age group who are either unemployed – which means they’re looking for a job – or not in the labor force because they are disabled, retired, in school, home-based, discouraged from pursuing work, or seasonal workers in the off season.
The average rate of these non-working men is 16 percent nationwide, according to The Times. In Vermont, the city of Newport in Orleans County has the highest rate at 55 percent. In parts of Windsor County, including Springfield, as many as 47 percent of men age 25 to 54 aren’t working. An area that mostly encompasses downtown Burlington has 37 percent of that group out of work.
Some of the numbers aren’t surprising. “You have perennially higher unemployment in the Northeast Kingdom,” said Tom Kavet, an economist and public policy consultant for the state legislature. State efforts to bolster economic development and create jobs in that region have had little influence, he added.
Orleans County had an average unemployment rate of 6.2 percent in 2013, the highest of Vermont’s 14 counties, according to the Vermont Department of Labor in its most recent Labor Market Quarterly newsletter, released in September.
That rate climbed slightly this year, the labor department reported. Out of the 14 counties, Orleans placed sixth for labor force participation rates (68.2 percent), and employment-to-population ratios (63.9 percent). The department says the data suggests that many in Orleans County are actively looking for work but can’t find it. Seasonality may also be a factor in the high unemployment rate.
Vermont cannot put too much stock in these numbers, Kavet added. The Times derived its information from the American Community Survey, an annual sampling of demographic data that the census collects from a small percentage of the population, and took an average over five years, from 2009 to 2013.
Because the survey involves a small sample, the statistics can easily be skewed and become less meaningful in states with sparse populations, Kavet said. One of the higher rates in rural Windsor County, for example, was in a census tract with just 677 men in the 25-54 age range. Only a few of those would have been surveyed.
“You really can run into sampling challenges,” Kavet said.
Also, within that wide age span of nearly 30 years, an area with a disproportionate number of men at the older end or lower end of the range can change the outcome, he said. For example, men in their early 50s might choose to retire early – particularly if they are relatively well off – and could boost the rate of non-workers in an area with many mature residents. At the other extreme, a large number of graduate students in their late 20s could explain a high out-of-work rate in an area such as downtown Burlington, home of the University of Vermont.
With stagnant job growth in recent years, more college graduates have chosen to stay in school and pursue graduate degrees, Kavet pointed out.
Vermont has some spots with healthy employment rates among men of prime working age. In and around Essex in Chittenden County, 98 percent of this group have jobs. That rivals key U.S. spots with the highest levels of working men, including Manhattan’s Upper East Side in New York and northern California in the heart of the Internet boom.
Unemployment in Vermont was 4.3 percent in November, seasonally adjusted, compared with a U.S. rate of 5.8 percent. That ties the state for the 10th lowest rate in the country, according to the labor department.
And the outlook for more downtrodden areas is improving, Kavet added. “We’re seeing some solid job growth in the last couple of months,” he said. “That’s good. We’ve still got a long way to go.”
