Montpelier 5/22/2012
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  1. Greg

    While it’s helpful to have the data from the report, I would be cautious about assigning too much weight to the rankings.

    The ranking reflects the ratio of the percentage of total losses to each state’s gross state product (GSP) as a percentage of US gross domestic product (GDP). The assumption being that if the ratio is greater than one, the state “has a higher propensity to experience loses from major embezzlements cases than we would expect”

    It’s not a terrible measure but it just doesn’t sit well with me. I have a number of concerns but these are the most serious.

    1. Vermont’s total for 2010 was $3 million but we had one case at $1.6m, which I suspect is exceptional for us. Thus, in small states with relatively few cases (we only had seven over $100,000), one large case can make a huge difference (outliers would be less of a problem in a big state with greater incidence and larger thefts).

    2. Since the denominator is related to GSP & GDP, it is perhaps not surprising that states with comparatively small economies end up looking bad; note that six of the top ten “most likely to be bad” states have smallish economies (WV, SD, VT, NM, MS, and RI)

    This is not to say that embezzlement isn’t a problem. Only that rankings can be misleading.

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