Margolis: Vermont GOP gubernatorial lineup takes shape

Brian Dubie. VTD/Josh Larkin

Guess who’s feeling a little less gloomy these days: Vermont Republicans.

A few actually profess optimism. Party Chair Patricia McDonald said she felt downright excited about the party’s prospects next year.

This from the party that lost the governorship last year, that holds but two of the six statewide offices and not even a third of either house of the State Legislature. Is it kidding itself?

Not necessarily. Two developments in recent weeks have improved the collective disposition of Republican leaders and their supporters. One is that former Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie is seriously thinking about a rematch with Gov. Peter Shumlin, the Democrat who narrowly beat him last year. The other is that if Dubie doesn’t run for governor, State Sen. Randy Brock probably will.

Not that either man has said this. Dubie, deployed on hurricane duty with the Air Force, was not in a position to discuss politics late last week. Brock would only say that running for governor if Dubie does not was “certainly something that’s been discussed.”

But Auditor Tom Salmon, who said he has been in contact with both men and other GOP officials, said the general understanding was that the nomination was Dubie’s if he wants it and that “Brock is the second guy, and I feel I’m the third guy.”

Other Republicans clearly and dearly hope that they end up with one of the first two. It’s not that Republican insiders are confident that either man could beat Shumlin. It’s just that they are confident that neither one would get blown away.

“Brian Dubie,” one of them said, “gets at least 45 percent.”

A recent poll gave Shumlin a healthy (if by no means commanding) eight-point lead over Dubie.”

Even though it’s too early for firm political predictions (The election is more than 430 days away), this prediction makes sense. Dubie got 48 percent of the vote last year, just one point behind Shumlin. Dubie remains well-known and well-liked. Brock isn’t as well known. But he served one term in statewide office as auditor, so his name at least rings a bell with many voters. He’s articulate, and he can help finance his own campaign, so he could probably run a credible race.

Republicans insist that either man could do better than just run a credible race. “We think we have a real shot to take back the fifth floor,” said Tayt Brooks, executive director of the Vermont GOP.

That, of course, is what party executive directors say, but Republican optimism here may not be entirely delusional. Statewide unemployment is creeping up, which is never good news for incumbents. Shumlin has angered some voters by his health care proposal and his recent continuing criticism of the Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant.

But most of those offended voters were Republicans to begin with. A recent poll gave Shumlin a healthy (if by no means commanding) eight-point lead over Dubie.

Besides, next year’s electorate will be different from last year’s, and while Republicans are feeling reasonably optimistic now, they also face a potential nightmare – a top-of-the-ticket debacle that could ruin any chances they have to win more statewide races or pick up seats in the Legislature.

Dubie came close last year, but that was a mid-year election when only 241,605 Vermonters voted. Next year is a Presidential year, as was 2008, when 325,046 voted. About the same number can be expected next year, and no matter what happens in the rest of the country, there’s not much doubt that Barack Obama will carry Vermont again.

Some of those 80,000 or so “extra” voters will just vote for president and go home. Some will split their tickets. But if history is any guide (and it’s the only guide), some are going to feel in a Democratic mood that day, and vote accordingly.

Adding to the GOP’s worries is that Sen. Bernie Sanders, an Independent who caucuses with the Democrats in Washington, appears poised to demolish any Republican who takes him on.

That helps explain why some party big-wigs have urged Salmon to run for re-election. They hope he can hold that seat for the GOP. They hope even more that he does not run against Sanders. Salmon is affable but mercurial, with a history of making statements that are impenetrable and impolitic. He would appear to be no match for Sanders.

But running against Sanders seems to be his preference. Under no circumstances, he said, would he seek re-election as auditor, an office he first won as a Democrat before switching parties in 2009. He said he would run for governor or for the senate, “or get out and go get a master’s in mediation.”

Right now, the only Republicans holding statewide office are Salmon and Lt. Gov. Phil Scott, who plans to seek re-election and is likely to win. But Tayt Brooks said the GOP has “a solid opportunity to pick up one statewide office,” specifically mentioning the State Treasurer’s office.

The Treasurer is Beth Pearce, appointed by Shumlin to replace Jeb Spaulding, who quit to become Shumlin’s Secretary of Administration. Pearce is little-known and has never run for office. But she’s a highly regarded public finance professional, and while anyone who runs for office becomes – by definition – a politician, she’s better positioned than most candidates to use the “I’m not really a politician” line so appealing to some voters.

If Brock does not run for governor, he seems likely to try to reclaim the auditor’s position, and would probably be considered the early favorite. Doug Hoffer, the policy analyst who lost to Salmon last year, said (by email), “I remain interested in serving as State Auditor but have made no decisions and will not do so until next year.”

Brocks’ optimism about the Treasurer’s spot did not really mean that Republicans have little hope of defeating Secretary of State Jim Condos or Attorney General William Sorrell. But in fact they have little hope in either race.

One Republican said there was some chance that Northeast Kingdom Sen. Vincent Illuzzi would take on Sorrell. Illuzzi, who is well-known and lively, might be competitive against Sorrell, who was appointed attorney general in 1979 and has never faced a tough opponent.

But while Illuzzi did not rule out running for attorney general, he did not seem enthusiastic about the possibility, either.

“I don’t know how serious I am about it,” he said.

Next year, like last year, Vermont politics is likely to be mostly about the governor’s race. Few first-term governors lose, as if voters understand that two years is a short tenure, and that unless the governor really stumbles, he deserves at least two more. So far, Peter Shumlin hasn’t stumbled, and remains the favorite. But at least for the moment, the Republicans seem ready to make him work for his second term.