Anyonebutdubie no longer just anybody
One name has popped up in the search for the person behind anyonebutdubie: Josh Manheimer.
Anyonebutdubie was an anonymous source for ads and videos that lambaste Republican candidate Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie. The ads, which began to appear on the Green Mountain Daily blog last week, link to a youtube video page with more than 15 short clips with titles like, “Lieutenant Gov. Brian Dubie Can’t Spell” and “Brian Dubie – Magical Thinking.” Most include voiceovers with a faux Southern accent and images from Dubie’s campaign stops.
Manheimer describes the videos as political satire, a la Jon Stewart.
The harshest and most provocative of the videos, “Why Don’t You Love Me?” uses cuts from the first debate between Dubie and Sen. Peter Shumlin, the Democrat in the race for governor. It features several of Dubie’s gaffes on the radio show WVMT, including his reference to “housewives,” which became the butt of Democratic ridicule, and his tongue-tied response to a question about reining back government spending in which he mistakenly said he would “target the most vulnerable.” The images in the video are derived from the debate and a Beyonce music video, in which the black pop star makes fun of housewifery.
The ads, which feature an attractive, buxom woman with the words “anyone but Dubie” blazoned across her chest, have stirred a feverish fit of running commentary on the GMD Web site. Most of the posts are part of a debate over whether the ads are “demeaning” to women or “prurient.”
http://www.youtube.com/user/AnyoneButDubie
In an interview, John Odum, founder of Green Mountain Daily, described the videos as “clumsy,” and in a post on GMD titled “I don’t like it either,” he wrote, “I committed some time ago to being as hands off as possible on ad buys, because I don’t want to get into the position of being arbiter without an absolutely crystal clear set of standards that would not be open to interpretation.”
Odum confirmed yesterday that Manheimer had paid for the advertisement.
In a phone interview, Manheimer said he had asked that his identity remain confidential, and he was upset that Odum had blown his cover. “It strikes me as the height of hypocrisy that an organization like Green Mountain Daily, which presumes to promote free political speech, and allows its blog posters to remain anonymous so they might speak truth to power freely, would reveal an advertiser’s identity — especially after he requested to remain anonymous!”
Odum said he wasn’t aware that Blogads.com, the networked ad service, had made a confidentiality arrangement with Manheimer. “If I had realized he had wanted to be anonymous, I would have been obliged to reject it because I believe in transparency,” Odum said.
Manheimer says he isn’t looking for notoriety and had hoped to remain anonymous. He agreed to go public with his identity after his name was revealed — in spite of his request for anonymity — by the editor of Green Mountain Daily.
Manheimer sees his work as a counterweight to the Republican Governors Association advertisements for Brian Dubie with one difference: He doesn’t have financial backing or a big media firm at his disposal. He said he produced the videos with his Mac, a credit card and an active imagination. Manheimer, who lives in Vermont, said he is a sole actor and has no relationship with the Democratic Governors Association, the Vermont Democratic Party or with its gubernatorial candidate, Sen. Peter Shumlin. He has spent about $800 on the videos and ads.
“Democrats around the country are doing what I’m doing,” Manheimer said. “It’s not like I’m the only one in the United States doing this.”
Manheimer first got involved in politics when he volunteered to help Democratic primary gubernatorial contender Matt Dunne with his Web site. “Matt was the outsider,” Manheimer wrote in an e-mail. “And I felt there were opportunities to call out all the other candidates on their record. … But to Matt’s credit, he didn’t want to crawl in the mud, and I’m sure he feels good about the race he ran, in spite of the outcome.”
He said he started making the ads during the recount when the Democrats didn’t have a frontrunner. Manheimer said that it was when “Dubie was riding around Vermont on a train saying how he was going to get the state back on track that I became motivated to step into the void and create a video that pointed out how Dubie was, in fact, part of the reason Vermont got derailed in the first place.
“After that, well, Dubie just seemed to present daily opportunities to continue experimenting with political satire,” Manheimer said. “I’m still appalled that his campaign’s theme is about bringing jobs to Vermont, and then he goes and hires a slick media communications firm in Texas who are famous for their political attack videos. Can’t Dubie find someone in Vermont to create his website? Heck, I’ll do it! Someone give him my phone number.”
If you haven’t seen the Republican Governors Association ad, “Peter Shumlin Can’t Be Trusted,” you can view it here. It depicts a slow motion video of Shumlin eyeing the camera and cites the Seven Days legislative poll dubbing Shumlin, “The most ethically challenged” lawmaker in the Statehouse. It also makes a reference to an Associated Press story about David Blittersdorf, a major Shumlin donor, whose company recently received $4.3 million in tax credits.
In a statement, Shumlin said: “The latest ads by out of state Republican interests on behalf of Brian Dubie are dishonest, despicable and a distraction from the real issues that are facing Vermonters. They aren’t the Vermont way. They are anything but Pure Vermont. Rather than stand on the issues, Brian Dubie and his friends in Washington have resorted to a smear campaign based on fear. Vermonters deserve an honest debate about the issues. The dishonest ads being run by Dubie and his allies should be taken down today.”
The RGA has spent $148,964 in television ads since Aug. 19, according to research by Jen Kittell, a freelance reporter for VTdigger.org.
Taste test
Two famous Vermont food manufacturers – Green Mountain Coffee Roasters and Ben and Jerry’s Homemade – have been chewed up by the markets in the last few days. Ben and Jerry’s, which is owned by Unilever, a British Dutch multinational corporation, admitted that its ingredients aren’t all natural: http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/sep/28/unilever-ben-jerrys-ingredients-watchdog. GMCR has been “roasted” as Reuters put it, in an SEC probe: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSSGE68S0JT20100929
GOP outspends Dems on mass media
A change in Vermont’s primary date has led to an even bigger gap in campaign finance reporting than usual. Political campaigns and political action committees are required to report “mass media filings,” or expenditures for television and radio ads, 30 days before an election.
As of Oct. 2, those entities will begin filing reports with the Secretary of State’s office. (The reports must be requested – they aren’t posted on the Secretary’s Web site.) Mass media activities of $500 or more must be filed within 24 hours of the expenditure or activity.
http://vermont-elections.org/elections1/campaign_finance.html
If the primary had been on Sept. 14, there would have been a two-week gap in reporting, but because the primary was moved up three weeks, there is now a five-week time period in which organizations can spend money on ads willy-nilly without notifying the state, the press and members of the public. The expenditures made between Aug. 24 and Oct. 2 will not be available until Oct. 15, the next campaign filing deadline.
Meanwhile, political action committees and candidates are spending tens of thousands of dollars a week on advertising.
Rep. Donna Sweaney, D-Windsor, and chair of the House Government Operations Committee, wasn’t aware of the reporting gap.
She said the mass-media filing requirements will be taken up as part of sweeping changes to the state’s campaign finance laws she hopes to introduce in the next legislative session.
“At this rate, we could be challenged on what we’re doing now, since the Supreme Court did us in and the governor kept vetoing (campaign financing) bills we sent to him,” Sweaney said. “We’re not sure what we have will hold up in court.”
Jen Kittell, a freelance reporter for VTdigger.org from Eden, obtained advertising contracts between political groups and local television stations from Aug. 26 through Oct. 3. She looked at expenditures made by the Republican Governors Association, Green Mountain Future (a liberal 527 organization), the Dubie campaign and the Shumlin campaign.
Here’s what Kittell found:
The RGA spent a total of $148,964 over this period. The GOP organization paid $73,476 to WCAX; $45,400 to WPTZ; $19,434 to WFFF; and $10,325 to WVNY. (Includes the week of Aug. 19-25.)
Green Mountain Future spent $120,694 in the same time frame. The group paid $46,019 to WCAX; $55,860 to WPTZ; $7,645 to WFFF; and $11,170 to WVNY.
The Dubie campaign spent $95,587.50 on ads: He spent $44,667.50 on ads broadcast on WCAX; $38,905 on WPTZ; $10,850 on WFFF; and $765 on WVNY.
The Shumlin campaign’s expenditures totaled $63,829.25. He spent $39,278.75 on ads that aired on WCAX; $5,015 at WPTZ; $6,200 at WFFF; $9,430 at WVNY; and $3,910 at WVNY.
(Stay tuned – we’ll be updating our list next week.)
State policeman voided Shumlin’s speeding ticket
Read Nancy Remsen’s piece in the Burlington Free Press about an officer who “improperly voided a speeding ticket” for Shumlin. The incident occurred in June; Shumlin told the Free Press that he didn’t ask for any favors. He paid the $152 fine. (Editor’s note: This sentence previously stated the reverse. We regret the error. ~AG)
Dubie’s home stretch
Dubie sent out a missive to supporters yesterday asking for 100 donors to do their duty before Sept. 30 (today).
We are less than 40 days away from Election Day and less than 48 hours away from our September end of month deadline. You are crucial to the success of my campaign. Our goal is to get 100 donors in the next 48 hours to provide us the resources to spread our pro-jobs message during this home stretch. My opponent has the wrong vision for Vermont’s future. While he forced through a $26 million tax increase last year, I have been campaigning on a message of controlling state spending, lowering taxes, cutting red tape, and expanding our economy to protect and create jobs. I need your help to continue spreading this message.
Leahy’s mix and match
Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., announced yesterday that he will be matching contributions made to the Vermont Democratic Party in the runup to the election. It’s a tactic he hasn’t tried before.
Here’s what he wrote to the Democratic faithful:
As things stand right now, there just aren’t enough resources to ensure Vermont remains a Democratic state. So I’ve agreed to match every contribution you make to the VDP today or tomorrow, the end-of-quarter fundraising deadline. Contribute to the Vermont Democratic Party before tomorrow’s midnight deadline, and Leahy for Vermont will match it dollar-for-dollar to double your impact. We’ve never done a match like this before, but winning Vermont’s closest contests for the Democrats is that important. With nearly 200 Republicans running for office in Vermont this November, the VDP is focused on reaching out to undecided voters and getting out the early vote.
According to opensecrets.org, Leahy has $3.22 million in his campaign war chest. The senior senator is running for his seventh term. He is vying with little known Republican Len Britton and several minor party candidates.
Shumlin’s Porsche, 18 properties, etc.
Dubie supporters held up signs outside the Sunday night AARP debate making fun of Shumlin’s recent revelations about his personal assets. They formed a gauntlet outside the Doubletree Hotel, hoping to intimidate the candidate as he walked in. (Shumlin entered from the back of the hotel.)
The signs read: “Shumlin – lend us the Porsche,” “Peter lend me a million,” “Hey Peter, can you pay my taxes.”
Neither candidate is poor. In fact, neither is middle class, but there is a large wealth gap between Shumlin and Dubie. Shumlin’s personal wealth stands at $10.67 million – nearly 10 times Dubie’s net worth of $1.18 million. More than half of Shumlin’s assets are in cash; Dubie’s are largely tied up in property.
So what does this mean in concrete terms? Let’s count the ways.
Shumlin has six cars, including a 1964 Porsche, a couple of recent vintage Passats, a Subaru Outback and two Dodge trucks; he also owns a Grady White boat.
Dubie has two vehicles – a 2005 Saturn and a Chrysler mini van.
Shumlin owes about $225,000 on a property in Putney.
Dubie owes nearly $400,000 on two mortgages.
As far as real estate holdings go, Dubie’s biggest investment is a house and sugar woods in Fairfield that is worth $947,300. His Mansfield Avenue house in Essex Junction is valued at $340,000.
Shumlin owns 18 properties, about 10 of which are partial holdings. All but one property (a cabin, house and land in Cape Breton) is located in one of three Windham County towns – Putney, Brattleboro and Westminster.
In all, his real estate is worth about $4.55 million.
With the exception of $1 million in Putney Student Travel stock, the rest of Shumlin’s money is in cash and equities.
Shumlin ahead in weighted polling
The New York Times is reporting that Shumlin leads Dubie by six points in a recent weighted poll analysis by Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com. The poll shows Shumlin garnering 52.8 percent and Dubie trailing with 46.3 percent.
Shumlin has a 79.6 percent chance of winning the gubernatorial election, according to Silver. The Web site says that the pollster’s forecasts are built from statistical models, mostly based on recent polls and demographic data.
http://elections.nytimes.com/2010/forecasts/governor/vermont
The only pollster who has conducted surveys of Vermonters is Rasmussen Reports. According to the firm’s latest report Sept. 15, Shumlin and Dubie were in a statistical dead heat, with the Democrat slightly ahead.
Read the story about the most recent poll.
How much did the Democratic primary for governor cost per vote?
Inquiring minds want to know the answer to life’s persistent questions, as Garrison Keillor puts it, and this was one of them for blogger Morgan Brown.
At $35.83 per vote, Secretary of State Deb Markowitz wins the pricey vote prize, with Shumlin in a close second, according to Brown’s calculations. Doug Racine, who ran an aggressive grassroots campaign, wins the frugality award. Here’s a rundown on the numbers. (CST=Campaign spending total, from Times Argus data; TVR=Total votes received; CPV=Cost per vote, amounts rounded off to nearest cent.)
Deborah Markowitz:
CST: $630,571
TVR: 17,601
CPV: $35.83
Peter Shumlin:
CST: $573,206
TVR: 18,301
CPV: $31.32
Matt Dunne:
CST: $335,876
TVR: 15,320
CPV: $21.92
Susan Bartlett:
CST: $69,345
TVR: 3,766
CPV: $18.41
Doug Racine:
CST: $253,581
TVR: 18,098
CPV: $14.01
Debate on
After the first flurry of debates, the schedule is slowing down somewhat over the next week.
In case you missed the early gubernatorial forums, here is a list of links to debate broadcasts.
The AARP debate, broadcast by Vermont Public Television and archived at
http://video.vpt.org/video/1601955996
Mark Johnson Show debate, archived via podcast, Part 1
http://blog.markjohnsonshow.net/2010/09/17/91710-governor-debate-pt-1.aspx
Mark Johnson Show debate, archived via podcast, Part 2
http://blog.markjohnsonshow.net/2010/09/17/91710-governor-debate-pt-2.aspx
The VPR debate, archived via podcast
http://www.vpr.net/episode/49446/
The first debate on WVMT, archived via podcast
20100913_dubieShumlinDebate
The Bradford Energy Committee forum
Listen to Democrat Sen. Peter Shumlin speak on Sept. 18, 2010, in Bradford
Listen to Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie speak on Sept. 18, 2010 in Bradford
Here is a list of upcoming events:
Fri. Oct. 1
Williston School Debate, 9 a.m.-10:30
Renewable Energy Vermont and VNRC Debate, 3:30-5 p.m. Sheraton Hotel,
Burlington
Sun. Oct. 3
The Vermont Press Association Debate, 3 p.m.–4:30 p.m., St. Michael’s College
Thurs. Oct. 7
Vermont League of Cities and Towns Gubernatorial Debate, 9-10:30 a.m., Essex Fairgrounds
Vermont Public Television Debate, 7:30-9 p.m.
Going places
John Odum is looking for another day job. The founder of Green Mountain Daily, a blog that promotes the Democratic Party, served as the membership coordinator and development officer at Vermont Natural Resources Council until last week.
The Montpelier-based nonprofit environmental organization is reducing its work force. Steve Holmes, the deputy director, is also retiring. VNRC held a farewell bash for Odum at Threepenny Taproom last week, according to Elizabeth Courtney, the executive director.
“He’s leaving on good terms,” Courtney said. “We’re sad to see him go. He’s a talented young man enjoyed having him on board for the past four years. It wasn’t his choice. We are doing some restructuring at VNRC. The shrinking economy is affecting everyone, including us.”
Rep. Floyd Nease, D-Johnson, who has served as majority leader of the House, won’t be seeking a leadership position this year if he’s re-elected to office this fall. Nease says he “wants to get his life back.”
