Franklin and Grand Isle counties need 3,350 new or improved housing units to meet the needs of current residents — not to mention those expected to move to the region in the future, according to a wide-ranging report released this month.
The report, published by the Northwest Regional Planning Commission, found that while nearly all of the housing units built in those counties over the past two decades have been standalone single-family homes, a majority of the region’s population growth in that time has come from single-person households. These households, the report states, often can’t afford to live in lower-density units, and about a third of them are renters.
That mismatch also comes as the cost of housing has reached historic highs, according to the report. A median-priced, single-family home cost $275,000 in Franklin County in 2021 — compared to about $225,000 in 2010 and $175,000 in 2000, the report found.
In Grand Isle County, the median cost in 2021 was $330,050 — versus about $260,000 in 2010 and $200,000 in 2000.
The two counties collectively gained about 2,500 residents from 2010 to 2020 and grew faster than Vermont as a whole, according to U.S. Census data. But the report projects that growth will slow over the next two decades — particularly in Grand Isle County, which is expected to see a net population loss.
Therefore, it’s important for officials to create housing options that “catch up” with the needs of current residents, the report states, rather than only plan for future growth.
In all, the report estimates that 7,600 households in Franklin and Grand Isle counties have unmet housing needs. They may have nowhere to live or are living in poor conditions, for example. About 6,600 residents in the region are “cost burdened,” the report found, meaning that they spend more than 30% of their income on housing.
“That’s pretty alarming,” said Barry Lampke, the regional planning commission’s working communities challenge project manager. Lampke noted that the percentage of cost-burdened residents is highest among those who identify as Black, Indigenous or a person of color.
Vermonters are feeling the impacts of a housing crisis well beyond the northwestern region. The state has the lowest rental vacancy rate in the country. If current trends hold, it would need to build 40,000 new housing units by 2030 to meet demand and return to a healthy housing market, according to one nonprofit’s estimate.
Lampke noted the report is based largely on data only as recent as 2020, the year of the most recent U.S. Census. But he said many people’s housing challenges have gotten worse in the two years since, pointing to a supply shortage, inflation and high interest rates.
The report says northwestern Vermont’s housing stock needs to be made more diverse by building out what’s known as the “missing middle” — more modest housing that falls somewhere between single-family homes and multistory apartment buildings.
Detached single-family homes made up more than 75% of the housing stock in Franklin and Grand Isle counties in 2020, the report found. From 2010 to 2019, single-family units were the only type of new housing that received permits in seven of the region’s 20 communities. Over the past two decades, according to the report, the region’s housing stock became more uniform, not less.
The study also found that few communities are seeing much new housing growth. St. Albans Town and Fairfax accounted for 42% of the region’s total growth in the previous two decades, and just three other communities averaged more than 10 new units a year. St. Albans Town also has most of the region’s newest multi-family structures.
“The targeted location of new units, when combined with the limited range of unit types being built, leads to housing that may only meet the needs and budgets of a small slice of the region’s households,” the report, which was released March 2, states.
Andy Julow, executive director of the Lake Champlain Islands Economic Development Corp., said he’s seen this firsthand in the five Grand Isle County towns. Much of the recent construction there has been of single-family homes on expensive lakeshore lots, he said. Julow also noted that the number of local affordable housing options catering to seasonal workers — vital to the islands’ tourism economy — seems to have dwindled.
“Twenty years ago, I think there were more accessory dwelling units,” he said in an interview, but “a lot of those have been turned into short-term rentals.”
The report notes that in six of the northwestern region’s communities, seasonal housing makes up more than a quarter of the local housing stock. It also states that the counties do not have enough safe housing for seniors, a potent issue in a region and a state with an aging population.
To meet their current housing needs, Franklin and Grand Isle counties will need to build at least 1,600 units designed for seniors who have a disability, researchers found, and at least 570 new units that would allow young adults who are currently living with their families or other people to move out on their own. For people who are experiencing homelessness, they found, the region needs at least 80 additional units of transitional housing.
The region also needs at least 460 mobile homes to replace aging units that are in poor condition, upgrades to at least 380 existing permanent homes and 260 additional units for residents who are currently living in overcrowded housing, according to the report.
The report also recommends setting annual targets for “housing interventions” spread across the region’s municipalities. These could include targets for new construction, renovation work and the number of people enrolled in housing affordability programs.
Lampke, of the regional planning commission, acknowledged that meeting the needs identified in the study will be “a big lift.” He said he thinks that an omnibus housing bill moving forward in Montpelier this year — which would pave the way for more construction by overhauling state and local building regulations — could help out.
“Is it a challenge? Absolutely,” he said. “Is it possible? Absolutely.”