This commentary is by Ron Pulcer, a resident of Rutland Town.
The buzzword from the 2020 general election was “election fraud” along with the hashtag #StopTheSteal. Never mind that the stealing started after the election.
Donald Trump raised $250 million for an “election defense fund” that didn’t exist. The money was funneled into Trump’s business properties and his “Save America” PAC.
The buzzword from the 2022 midterm election was “candidate quality,” coined by Sen. Mitch McConnell in regard to Trump-endorsed candidates such as Herschel Walker, Mehmet Oz, Tudor Dixon, Blake Masters, etc. Trump didn’t follow through and share funds with these campaigns. Later, the Super PAC affiliated with McConnell spent millions trying to prop up several of these campaigns of questionable quality.
Those who perpetrated the Big Lie about “widespread election fraud” only really seemed to care about swing states. That my home state of Michigan would switch parties yet again and vote for Joe Biden in 2020 is not surprising to me. Biden helped with the auto bailout after the Great Recession.
Of course, swing states are where the Electoral College hinged upon. But if there was “widespread” fraud as Trumplicans claimed, there should have been uproar about more states.
Vermont is not a swing state. Vermont’s three Electoral College votes weren’t enough for Trump, Giuliani and Bannon to focus on, assuming again that there was “widespread” election fraud, as they claimed.
You can’t convince everyone. But since “politics is local,” I will direct the following to Vermonters. That includes Jan. 6 bus riders and defenders, “Let’s Go Brandon” chanters, QAnon followers, and election-result-denying politicians.
Vermont is a Blue state on the Electoral College map. Rutland Town bucks that statewide trend as a conservative town. Rutland Town has had Republican Statehouse representatives since 1997.
Rutland Town has long had one House representative. After the 2020 Census redistricting, Rutland Town was sliced into two parts and annexed to neighboring municipalities. The following election results are from the district formerly known as Rutland-4 (Rutland Town in full).
In both 2016 and 2020, Republican Phil Scott won the governor’s race and Donald Trump lost the presidential race in Vermont.
In 2016, Phil Scott received 52.9% of the vote statewide and became governor. In Rutland Town, Scott received 65.47% of the vote, over 12 points more than the statewide percentage.
In 2020, Phil Scott received 68.5% of the vote statewide for governor. In Rutland Town, Scott received 78.14% of the vote, almost 10 points more than the statewide percentage.
This jibes with the perception that Rutland Town is one of Vermont’s more Republican towns.
In 2016, Donald Trump received 30.3% of the presidential vote statewide. He also lost the national popular vote, but ultimately won via the Electoral College. In Rutland Town, Trump received 42.41% of the vote, over 12 points more than the statewide percentage. Even in conservative Rutland Town, Hillary Clinton received more votes: 45.86%.
In 2020, Donald Trump received 30.7% of the presidential vote statewide. That time, he did not win the Electoral College and Joe Biden became president. In Rutland Town, Trump received 41.21% of the vote — 1.2% lower than his 2016 percentage. In Republican Rutland Town, Joe Biden received more votes: 54.48%.
Did Donald Trump lose in Rutland Town because of “election fraud”? I didn’t hear any such claims. Did Trump lose in Rutland Town because of an influx of Covid refugees? I don’t think so.
Mitch McConnell was correct in 2022 about “candidate quality.” Perhaps “candidate quality” was also a factor in 2020. Some voters may have tried the new gold-plated candidate in 2016, but later had buyer’s remorse.
Gov. Phil Scott was reelected in 2020 partly because of his leadership during the pandemic. In 2022, Gov. Scott handily won again in a Blue state when nationally the “Republican Red Wave” never materialized.
Gov. Scott could not have been reelected for a fourth term with 69.24% of the vote without some votes from independents and moderate Democrats. Scott wisely voiced his opposition to Trump during 2016 and backed John Kasich. For that, he was criticized as a Never-Trumper by some Vermont Republicans.
Voters do consider “candidate quality.” But that was true long before McConnell mentioned it. Voters sometimes split their votes. If Republicans want to win, I’d suggest more Phil Scotts and fewer Tudor Dixons.
Some may question why I’m still focusing on the 2020 election. Trump just announced he’s going to run for 2024. It isn’t just that some Vermonters attended the Jan. 6 rally. It’s that they questioned Michigan’s election result without first looking at Rutland Town’s votes and asking why Donald Trump did not win in one of Vermont’s most conservative towns.
They didn’t make election fraud claims about Rutland Town. But they were willing to go along with attempts to disenfranchise Michigan voters in Wayne County, which includes Detroit.
Donald Trump has never won the popular vote. I predict the trend will continue: Donald will again lose the popular vote in 2024. Trump will lose again in Rutland Town.
Perhaps Republicans should instead try to nominate a presidential candidate who can actually win in Rutland Town, and stop the Big Lying.