Scientists expect that more rain will fall in Vermont because of climate change — but they also expect more frequent periods of drought.
Rain has been falling in bursts, which increases the likelihood that water will run off the landscape, rather than soaking into the soil, replenishing the ecosystem.
This pattern has already begun to play out. Last summer, rain swamped the southern half of the state as northern Vermont remained dry. The U.S. Drought Monitor designated the dry conditions in the southeastern corner of the state this month as “severe drought,” which has also appeared in Massachusetts, Connecticut, New York and other parts of New England.
It’s a relatively localized issue — water levels in Lake Champlain are only down by roughly half a foot compared to its average, a marked improvement from the end of last summer, according to Oliver Pierson, manager of the Agency of Natural Resources’ lake and pond program.
Roger Hill, a meteorologist based in Worcester, said this week’s rain will likely help to quell the lingering dry conditions in much of the state.
But conditions are likely to continue fluctuating as climate change progresses, and the extreme edges of weather are becoming more common. Farmers are one group particularly affected by this swing.
On a hillside in Brattleboro, first generation farmers Ashlyn Bristle and Abraham McClurg manage close to 70 acres of pasture and forest where they tend to a herd of Jersey cows, sheep and pigs, selling raw milk and meat. From a retail store on the property of their Rebop Farm, they offer their own products and those of 90 other area producers.
Last year, the farm was subject to extreme rain and wet conditions. This year, their fields saw fire in April due to drought. Bristle spoke with VTDigger about how the farm, which they’ve operated since 2014, has adapted.
This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
VTDigger: When did you start to feel the dry weather conditions this year?
Ashlyn Bristle: I think we actually started to notice it in April, which is quite early in the season. We usually see the last of the snow then, but we got less snow all winter than we typically would.
I use a weed fabric that I burn holes through, which is great for a no-till application, and my cover crop was so dry underneath that it caught fire. Luckily, it didn’t spread very far, but that was a first for April, which is usually very wet.
VTD: How have the unusual conditions affected the farm this year?
Ashlyn Bristle: I don’t know if it was this way in the rest of Vermont, but in the southern part of the state, we had really cold temperatures through April, despite it being dry. In May, we hit some 90 degree days very suddenly. In grass species, you want about 20% of whatever you’re grazing to be going to seed, and the rest to be vegetative to have good nutrition for your animals — especially for dairy cows, because they’re metabolically, like, running a marathon every day. That heat, along with that stress, meant that everything went to seed super early. So if you looked out at hayfields, people had to cut earlier.
We haven’t done our forage analysis yet, but we’re pretty worried that it’s going to be lower quality because you get more starches, and less digestible, good food for your animals all winter long.
That started happening in May, and then by June, we had gotten so little rain that we started seeing parts of our pasture go dormant and brown, which is really unusual for June. It’s usually our most luscious month with beautiful growth — you feel like you have more grass than you know what to do with. But this year, that was when we pulled everybody in off of pasture and started feeding stored hay that we would usually save.
VTD: What happens when you run through your hay in the summer, when you’re trying to save it for winter? Is it expensive to buy?
Ashlyn Bristle: It is really expensive. We got really lucky that, in 2021, we built a new barn that radically reduced our hay waste because of new systems that we implemented. Our hay budget was usually 300 wrapped round bales a year, and we only used 150 over the winter. We thought we saved a lot of money, but we’ve fed almost all of it out — almost as much in the summer as we did in the winter, which is a first.
We think that we are going to be able to source enough for the upcoming winter. We have gotten some rain here at the end of the season, so we’ll see what the second cutting’s like. We’re hoping that we just got really, really lucky. Our luck was like a lightning strike.
I think that really speaks to the need for a buffer capacity. In a new climate reality, how much money can you throw at having “extra,” just in case — like extra space, extra energy, extra feed? It’s a veiled way of saying, how much financial privilege do you have to throw at your farm in the “just in case” line item of your budget?
VTD: I imagine this comes on top of other financial pressures of being young and farming.
Ashlyn Bristle: I’m in my mid-30s and my husband’s in his mid-40s. I think, being first-gen farmers, you carry more debt than a multi-generational farm that’s had a chance to pay down their mortgage or pay off equipment and pass it on. There’s just more costs coming after you. Although, I don’t want to speak for multi-gen farmers, because they also have different stressors that I’m glad I don’t have to carry.
VTD: Is this the first time you’ve been affected by extreme weather?
Ashlyn Bristle: We had similar drought conditions in 2020. It broke a little bit earlier — we ended up getting more rain in July. 2021 was also a really exceptional year. We got an unbelievable amount of rain in July — the average rainfall in Vermont for our area is about three inches. We got 24 (inches that month).
That summer, in 2021, we got multiple cases of toxic mastitis in our cows, which can be fatal within 12 to 24 hours if you don’t catch it quickly and treat it. It’s very, very unpleasant for them, and it was so expensive. It was so hard to see these animals that we love and take care of — the dairy cows are my buddies. I don’t want them to feel like that, ever. I really care about them and their quality of life, and it seemed preventable.
I’ve found it’s a wet condition thing. You often see it on cows that have just given birth. We had them out grazing, and if somebody decides to lay with her udder out in a puddle overnight, they can contract it. It’s very, very painful and toxic. We’ve vaccinated against it, but sometimes the conditions are bad enough.
VTD: How have you adapted to these swings in weather?
Ashlyn Bristle: It was all over the map last year, and that was one of the reasons that we decided to go ahead with the barn project, so that we had a safe space no matter what the weather was outside. With that, we built a lot of systems to help it stay drier or cooler, or whatever it was that the animals needed to be healthy and productive.
As a grazing farm, we hadn’t invested so aggressively in infrastructure that could be used year-round like that. We’ve always had winter housing, but our animals were outside 100% of the time.
So that was the impetus for our realization that every system has to have buffer capacity; every system has to be able to hold all of our animals. That’s a huge number of animals in the summertime. We’re sitting on 100 sheep right now. We raised 80 pigs over the year — 2,000 chickens, we’re gonna be at 15 cows by next spring. Getting them all inside somewhere on a little hill farm — it’s a big undertaking. This year, it was the opposite. It was so, so dry, they needed to be under fans because of heat stress.
VTD: How much of a financial burden did the barn represent?
Ashlyn Bristle: The barn project was probably half of our operating budget from the year that we built it. It was, really, a huge investment in the farm. But we realized, we can’t keep going the way that we’re going.
VTD: What’s it like to be a farmer in the far reaches of the state when you’re going through difficult periods like this? Do you have the support you need?
Ashlyn Bristle: I think I’m in my 13th year of farming in total, and I feel like I just passed into feeling like I know what to do, and I know how to manage new situations, because I have enough experience under my belt.
One of the biggest struggles I’ve had, generally, is accessing good technical support — being able to afford and have time to go to workshops, or touch base with technical support providers. Those services tend to be very focused in the northern part of the state — which is understandable, there’s a lot more farms there. We have access to some really great support from various organizations in the state, such as the Northeast Organic Farming Association and the Farm and Forest Viability Program. But there’s still a lot more activity up north.
VTD: There’s rain in the forecast for this week. Are you feeling hopeful?
Ashlyn Bristle: We got a couple of good soaking rains, so we were able to start grazing again, which felt — it’s hard to describe the feeling of seeing the animals out. They don’t want to be inside, they don’t want to be eating old hay. To see them happy and having the food that they really want is wonderful.
A drought can be really difficult on your mental health as a farmer. You can be incredibly skilled, you can plan really well. I think being a good farmer is about being very responsive and observant, and at a certain point, there’s just nothing you can do. That feeling of powerlessness is really difficult to manage.
I think I have to adjust my expectations for the future about what a successful season is, and how to prepare for that. Climate change is very much here. It’s affecting us. I think that success looks like resiliency, doing the best we can to be prepared and pivoting quickly.