[T]his is Vermont. We don’t do drama. We don’t even do much change. When it comes to politics, we love our status quo.
Elsewhere in America this Election Day, incumbents tumbled, statehouses changed hands, and control of the U.S. House of Representatives hung in the balance.
This is Vermont. Very little hangs in the balance. Perhaps a legislative seat or two, but the state’s political motto of the day could be: everybody is re-elected, just as we all suspected.
Re-elected by big margins. Four hours after the polls closed, Republican Gov. Phil Scott has a 19-percentage point lead over Democrat Christine Hallquist, and Progressive/Democrat David Zuckerman led Republican Don Turner 57 to 41 percent.
And in Vermont, those were the close races. U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders, Treasurer Beth Pearce and Auditor Doug Hoffer led their Republican opponents by more than 30 points. Attorney General TJ Donovan and U.S. Rep. Peter Welch had 41-point margins.
No nail-biters in these parts.
One result is that with one exception, politics and government for the next two years are likely to proceed very much they did in the last two. The same people will be in the same offices, with Scott the lone Republican.
Lonelier, perhaps than he has been because some Vermont Republicans were defeated. They were members of the state House of Representatives, where Democrats had an 83 to 53 majority, with seven Progressive Party lawmakers and seven independents.
By late Tuesday night, the Democrats were counting eight additional seats. They took an open seat in St. Johnsbury and knocked off several incumbents, including veteran Republican Kurt Wright (also a member of the Burlington City Council) and longtime independent (and former Democrat) Paul Poirier of Barre.
But Democrats also appeared to have lost one House seat, in Grand Isle County, where Ben Joseph finished behind Leland Morgan for the second of two seats in that district.
Republicans had recruited Morgan and his nephew Michael Morgan in the hope of defeating House Speaker Mitzi Johnson. But Johnson finished first, almost 200 votes ahead of Morgan.
Still, the Democrats should have roughly 90 members in the House next session, and they can usually rely on the seven Progressives. In theory, this gets them close to the veto-proof majority of 100 members who could override a Scott veto.
But legislatures don’t operate in the world of theory. Being the majority party, the Democrats are less united. Now that their majority will be bigger, unity might be harder.
For instance, last year, eight Democrats voted against the bill raising the state’s minimum wage. They thought they were voting as their constituents wanted them to vote. Legislators who don’t do that tend not to stay in office. On that issue, at least, a Scott veto is likely to be sustained.
And some Democrats noted Tuesday night that the Progressives, whose votes would be needed for any veto override, might try to drive harder bargains with the majority Democrats over matters such as committee assignments and which bills get priority.
But having more Democrats in the Legislature is not going to make Scott’s job any easier. If he needs more reminders that Vermont is a solidly Democratic state, a look at the legislative rosters will do the job.
The Democratic gains in the House appear to be the only impact of the “Trump effect,” (meaning, in Vermont, the anti-Trump effect) this year. Scott insulated himself from it by recognizing it and making it clear that he didn’t like the president’s style or many of his policy positions. Vermonters who wanted to express their distaste with what was happening in Washington seem to have done it by voting for Democratic legislative candidates.
Whether a stronger candidate than Hallquist might have mobilized Vermont’s anti-Trump sentiments and given Scott a tougher race was asked by some Democrats (and a few Republicans) Tuesday night.
It was not answered.
Hallquist, who had never before run for office and was not very well known, got better as a candidate as the campaign progressed. By her last debate with Scott, she was sharp and effective. At the very end of the campaign, she raised enough money to buy television time.
It was a good ad. It was too late.
Correction: Leland Morgan is Michael Morgan’s uncle, not his father.